Sunday, October 2, 2016

Ballpark-Adjusted Team Statistics For 2016

Note: I updated this file with a corrected calculation for ERA+ (March 18, 2017).

We have a complete record of game-by-game line scores for the 2016 season, and that enables me to compute comprehensive park factors for all teams.

The point of this exercise is to (1) highlight the ways in which various parks affect run scoring, and (2) to create Baseball-Reference-style index metrics, specifically OPS+ and ERA+.

Please see this page to learn more about how the calculations are made. Teams are sorted here in descending order of park factor, where 100 is average.

No Team Home R/GRoad R/GPark FactorMultiplier
1 Little Rock 9.68 8.43 115 1.074
2 Fighting Irish 9.46 8.27 114 1.072
3 Death Valley 9.99 8.78 114 1.069
4 Rosehill 8.74 7.78 112 1.062
5 St. Louis 7.25 6.57 110 1.052
6 West Side 10.36 9.47 109 1.047
7 Northwest 8.15 7.48 109 1.045
8 Miami 8.48 7.80 109 1.044
9 Brooklyn 8.28 7.73 107 1.036
10 Sudbury 9.16 8.74 105 1.024
11 Lake County 8.63 8.44 102 1.011
12 Northeast 8.53 8.77 97 0.987
13 Wilmingotn 8.59 8.95 96 0.980
14 Rochester 7.59 8.14 93 0.967
15 Elysian Fields 8.79 9.46 93 0.965
Spokane 6.63 7.12 93 0.965
17 California 7.74 8.48 91 0.956
18 Mohawk Valley 7.77 9.22 84 0.921
19 Cape Cod 7.85 9.88 80 0.898
20 Goldenrod 6.65 8.81 75 0.877

Little Rock played as the most hitter-friendly park in the league with a factor of 115. This means that Scorpions home games featured 15 percent more runs than Scorpions in road games. At the other end of the spectrum, Goldenrod played in a park featuring a factor of 75, meaning that Gators home games saw 25 percent fewer runs than Gators road games.


Adjusted Batting Statistics


Here are the park-adjusted OPS+ leaders at the team level for the 2016 season, where OPS+ is figured in the same fashion as the old Total Baseball model. That figure is then adjusted by the park-factor multiplier to produce the Adjusted OPS+.

No Team Raw OPS+ MultiplierAdjusted OPS+
1 Cape Cod 113 0.898 126
2 Goldenrod 109 0.877 124
3 Mohawk Valley 108 0.921 117
4 Elysian Fields 112 0.965 116
5 Death Valley 124 1.069 116
6 Lake County 111 1.011 110
7 Wilmington 103 0.980 105
8 Fighting Irish 105 1.072 98
9 West Side 103 1.047 98
10 Miami 100 1.044 96
11 Northeast 95 0.987 96
12 California 91 0.956 95
13 Rochester 90 0.967 94
14 Spokane 90 0.965 93
15 Rosehill 98 1.062 92
16 Sudbury 93 1.024 91
17 Brooklyn 94 1.036 91
18 St. Louis 91 1.052 86
19 Northwest 86 1.045 82
20 Little Rock 81 1.074 75

Adjusted Pitching Statistics

Now, let's apply the same principle to the pitching side of the ledger and adjust ERA+ by park-factor multipliers. Here's the team-level Adjusted ERA+ leaderboard for the 2016 season.

No Team Raw ERA+ MultiplierAdjusted ERA+
1 St. Louis 1251.052 129
2 Spokane 1260.965 124
3 Goldenrod 1260.877 116
4 Northwest 103 1.045 107
5 Miami 101 1.044 105
6 Death Valley 99 1.069 105
7 Brooklyn 101 1.036 105
8 Mohawk Valley 1120.921 104
9 Rosehill 98 1.062 104
10 Lake County 100 1.011 101
11 Fighting Irish 941.072 101
12 Rochester 104 0.967 100
13 Elysian Fields 102 0.965 99
14 Wilmington 96 0.980 94
15 Cape Cod 104 0.898 93
16 California 98 0.956 93
17 Northeast 890.987 87
18 West Side 801.047 85
19 Sudbury 771.024 80
20 Little Rock 621.074 72

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