Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Ballpark-Adjusted Team Statistics For 2015 Season

At precisely the same point in time that I discovered how to create park factors for MMDA teams last May, the means by which those PF estimates were calculated disappeared. As some of you know, our league's 2015 LZP file did not include line scores after April 30, and those line scores are essential to computing park factors.

With the help of a veteran Strat manager who is not in the MMDA, however, I have recovered 99 percent of the line scores from the 2015 season. This third party performed emergency surgery—technically, he rebuilt the league from game files—that yielded results for 1,605 of 1,620 possible games.

In fact, we recovered all 162 data points for 11 of 20 teams and all but a handful of data points for seven others. One team, the Miami Manatees, had 12 corrupted game files—the club's entire home schedule versus Northeast Division opponents in Block 6—and thus the largest error bars among teams in terms of its park factor.

Note: I can reconstruct the complete puzzle if interested parties can find the scores from Miami's Block 6 home games against Cape Cod, Fighting Irish, Northeast and West Side.

Note 2: We also have three random missing game files, which are:

• April 4: Spokane @ Jersey
• April 17: California @ Jersey
• Sept. 4: Spokane @ Brooklyn

So three months later than I intended, I have prepared park factors for the 2015 season. Please see this page to learn more about how the calculations are made. Teams sorted in descending order of hitter friendliness.

No Team Home R/GRoad R/GPark FactorMultiplier
1 Death Valley 9.20 7.33 125 1.127
2 Brooklyn 10.16*8.32 122 1.111
3 West Side 9.81 8.28# 119 1.093
4 Lake County 9.41 8.31 113 1.066
5 Little Rock 9.20 8.20 112 1.061
6 Cape Cod 9.23 8.69# 106 1.031
7 Northwest 8.30 7.96 104 1.021
8 Wilmington 7.80 7.86 99 0.996
9 Rochester 7.53 7.65 98 0.992
10 St. Louis 7.95 8.11 98 0.990
11 Goldenrod 7.58 7.80 97 0.986
Miami 7.84**8.06 97 0.986
13 Elysian Fields 7.68 8.10 95 0.974
14 Jersey 7.96^ 8.48 94 0.969
15 California 8.09 8.79* 92 0.960
16 Northeast 8.11 8.90# 91 0.956
Rosehill 7.72 8.47 91 0.956
18 Fighting Irish 8.40 10.03# 84 0.919
19 Spokane 5.62 6.84^82 0.911
20 Mohawk Valley 6.96 8.48 82 0.910
* Sample includes 80 games (one missing)
# Sample includes 78 games (three missing)
** Sample includes 69 games (12 missing)
^ Sample includes 79 games (two missing)

Friday, January 8, 2016

A Jamesian Approach To Evaluating MMDA Managers

In his 1995 book "Whatever Happened To The Hall Of Fame?," Bill James proposed a method for evaluating managers' worthiness for enshrinement in Cooperstown. He assigned weighted values to various accomplishments, such as World Series championships (eight points each), pennants not resulting in a championship (five), division titles (three), career wins (one point per 200) and 100-win seasons (one).

With the Hall of Fame announcing this week that Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza would comprise its class of 2016, I thought it would be fun to review our current membership with an HOF angle. Thus, I applied James' manager standards to the past decade of MMDA play.

In addition to the weighted values listed, James also awarded points for tenure, but since MMDA managers are not hired and fired by team owners, I did not consider this category relevant to our league context. Instead, I simply listed years in the MMDA, dating back to 2006.

Managers Clyde Elkins (three years) and Mike Renick (one) have undertaken complete rebuilds, so I did not include them in the following ranking.

No.ManagerYearsWSx8Pennx5Divx3Wins*x1100Wx1Total
1John Tresca 1018210824100858855
2Matt Eddy102161561893142245
3Ray Ross101821051594743340
4Steven Tresca1018150083643320
5James Bailey10000041286941117
6John Lamanna618002653420016
7Steve Frediani1000151377030011
8Jim Baker100000137823117
9Mike Johnson80000136693006
10Jim Derer40000133531115
11Tim Ednoff40000133421004
12Mike Siddon100000007463003

Eric Campell**100000007313003
14Ryan McCabe50000003891001

Dave Jones50000003471001

Jim Gruttadauria40000003151001

George O'Connor40000002961001

Tom Edwards30000002271001
* Teams awarded one point for every 200 wins
**  Kevin Kasunich takes over franchise for 2016