Friday, January 8, 2016

A Jamesian Approach To Evaluating MMDA Managers

In his 1995 book "Whatever Happened To The Hall Of Fame?," Bill James proposed a method for evaluating managers' worthiness for enshrinement in Cooperstown. He assigned weighted values to various accomplishments, such as World Series championships (eight points each), pennants not resulting in a championship (five), division titles (three), career wins (one point per 200) and 100-win seasons (one).

With the Hall of Fame announcing this week that Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza would comprise its class of 2016, I thought it would be fun to review our current membership with an HOF angle. Thus, I applied James' manager standards to the past decade of MMDA play.

In addition to the weighted values listed, James also awarded points for tenure, but since MMDA managers are not hired and fired by team owners, I did not consider this category relevant to our league context. Instead, I simply listed years in the MMDA, dating back to 2006.

Managers Clyde Elkins (three years) and Mike Renick (one) have undertaken complete rebuilds, so I did not include them in the following ranking.

No.ManagerYearsWSx8Pennx5Divx3Wins*x1100Wx1Total
1John Tresca 1018210824100858855
2Matt Eddy102161561893142245
3Ray Ross101821051594743340
4Steven Tresca1018150083643320
5James Bailey10000041286941117
6John Lamanna618002653420016
7Steve Frediani1000151377030011
8Jim Baker100000137823117
9Mike Johnson80000136693006
10Jim Derer40000133531115
11Tim Ednoff40000133421004
12Mike Siddon100000007463003

Eric Campell**100000007313003
14Ryan McCabe50000003891001

Dave Jones50000003471001

Jim Gruttadauria40000003151001

George O'Connor40000002961001

Tom Edwards30000002271001
* Teams awarded one point for every 200 wins
**  Kevin Kasunich takes over franchise for 2016

Observations

• John Tresca cruised to the No. 1 ranking with more wins (1,008), division titles (eight) and 100-win seasons (eight) than any MMDA manager. Think about it this way: The Northeast Huskies have averaged 100 wins per season during the past decade, typically in one of the league's toughest divisions.

• Eddy, Ross and John Tresca all have played in three World Series during the past decade.

• Steven Tresca claimed zero division titles during the past decade, yet has an outstanding record of success. His Cape Cod Breakers have a World Series title, a pennant and three 100-win seasons, more than any manager save for his brother John.

• The highest average rate for wins per season, since 2006, belong to: (1) John Tresca, 100.8; (2) Ross, 94.7; (3) Eddy, 93.1; (4) Lamanna, 89.0; (5) Derer, 88.2; (6) Bailey, 86.9; (7) Ednoff, 85.5; (8) Johnson, 83.6; (9) Steven Tresca, 83.6; and (10) Gruttadauria, 78.7.

Limitations Of Method

• One could argue that the distinction between division titles (three points) and 100-wins seasons (one) is too large. Placing first in an MMDA division grants that team entry to the playoff tournament, but it does not necessarily signify greatness. For example, Mohawk Valley has won its division twice with the two lowest division-winning win totals in the sample: 83 (2006) and 87 (2014).

Is that really a more impressive accomplishment than winning 100 games and finishing in second place?

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