Ballpark-Adjusted Team Statistics For 2015 Season

At precisely the same point in time that I discovered how to create park factors for MMDA teams last May, the means by which those PF estimates were calculated disappeared. As some of you know, our league's 2015 LZP file did not include line scores after April 30, and those line scores are essential to computing park factors.

With the help of a veteran Strat manager who is not in the MMDA, however, I have recovered 99 percent of the line scores from the 2015 season. This third party performed emergency surgery—technically, he rebuilt the league from game files—that yielded results for 1,605 of 1,620 possible games.

In fact, we recovered all 162 data points for 11 of 20 teams and all but a handful of data points for seven others. One team, the Miami Manatees, had 12 corrupted game files—the club's entire home schedule versus Northeast Division opponents in Block 6—and thus the largest error bars among teams in terms of its park factor.

Note: I can reconstruct the complete puzzle if interested parties can find the scores from Miami's Block 6 home games against Cape Cod, Fighting Irish, Northeast and West Side.

Note 2: We also have three random missing game files, which are:

• April 4: Spokane @ Jersey

• April 17: California @ Jersey

• Sept. 4: Spokane @ Brooklyn

So three months later than I intended, I have prepared park factors for the 2015 season. Please see this page to learn more about how the calculations are made. Teams sorted in descending order of hitter friendliness.

No	Team	Home R/G	Road R/G	Park Factor	Multiplier
1	Death Valley	9.20	7.33	125	1.127
2	Brooklyn	10.16*	8.32	122	1.111
3	West Side	9.81	8.28#	119	1.093
4	Lake County	9.41	8.31	113	1.066
5	Little Rock	9.20	8.20	112	1.061
6	Cape Cod	9.23	8.69#	106	1.031
7	Northwest	8.30	7.96	104	1.021
8	Wilmington	7.80	7.86	99	0.996
9	Rochester	7.53	7.65	98	0.992
10	St. Louis	7.95	8.11	98	0.990
11	Goldenrod	7.58	7.80	97	0.986
	Miami	7.84**	8.06	97	0.986
13	Elysian Fields	7.68	8.10	95	0.974
14	Jersey	7.96^	8.48	94	0.969
15	California	8.09	8.79*	92	0.960
16	Northeast	8.11	8.90#	91	0.956
	Rosehill	7.72	8.47	91	0.956
18	Fighting Irish	8.40	10.03#	84	0.919
19	Spokane	5.62	6.84^	82	0.911
20	Mohawk Valley	6.96	8.48	82	0.910
* Sample includes 80 games (one missing) # Sample includes 78 games (three missing) ** Sample includes 69 games (12 missing) ^ Sample includes 79 games (two missing)

Adjusted Batting Statistics

Here are the park-adjusted OPS+ leaders at the team level for the 2015 season, where OPS+ is figured in the same fashion as the old Total Baseball model. That figure is then divided by the park-factor multiplier to produce the Adjusted OPS+.

No	Team	Raw OPS+ (Rank)	Multiplier	Adjusted OPS+
1	Fighting Irish	115 (1)	0.919	125
2	Mohawk Valley	113 (3)	0.910	124
3	Northeast	107 (7)	0.956	112
4	Miami	110 (5)	0.986	112
5	Rosehill	106 (8)	0.956	111
6	Northwest	110 (4)	1.021	108
7	California	103 (10)	0.960	107
8	Brooklyn	114 (2)	1.111	104
9	Rochester	102 (12)	0.992	103
10	Jersey	98 (13)	0.969	101
11	West Side	110 (6)	1.093	101
12	Lake County	104 (9)	1.066	98
13	St. Louis	96 (14)	0.990	97
14	Goldenrod	93 (15)	0.986	94
15	Death Valley	102 (11)	1.127	91
16	Spokane	79 (20)	0.911	87
17	Wilmington	86 (16)	0.996	86
18	Elysian Fields	84 (17)	0.974	86
19	Cape Cod	81 (19)	1.031	79
20	Little Rock	83 (18)	1.061	78

Death Valley (-4), Brooklyn (-6) and West Side (-5) played half their schedules in the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, so all three clubs tumbled in the park-adjusted OPS+ standings.

The Fighting Irish had the league's most potent offense even before adjusting for degree of difficulty, i.e. the club's pitcher-friendly home park.  

Adjusted Pitching Statistics

Now, let's apply the same principle to the pitching side of the ledger and adjust ERA+ by park-factor multipliers. Here's the team-level Adjusted ERA+ leaderboard for the 2015 season.

No	Team	Raw ERA+	Multiplier	Adjusted ERA+
1	Northwest	125	1.021	127
2	Spokane	131	0.911	124
3	Mohawk Valley	122	0.910	115
4	Rochester	114	0.992	113
5	Death Valley	98	1.127	110
6	Rosehill	113	0.956	109
7	Miami	108	0.986	107
8	Goldenrod	105	0.986	104
9	Brooklyn	92	1.111	103
10	St. Louis	101	0.990	100
11	Lake County	91	1.066	98
13	Northeast	102	0.956	98
14	West Side	88	1.093	98
12	California	102	0.960	97
15	Jersey	97	0.969	94
16	Wilmington	92	0.996	92
17	Elysian Fields	88	0.974	85
18	Fighting Irish	94	0.919	85
19	Little Rock	67	1.061	75
20	Cape Cod	66	1.031	70

Northwest erased Spokane's 10-point lead in unadjusted ERA+ after accounting for the run-scoring environments at each club's home park.

Death Valley played in the league's top hitter's park and vaulted from 11th place to fifth after adjusting for all the offense.