Friday, November 24, 2017

Draft Order For 2018

Now that the World Series is complete, we have a complete order for the first round of the 2018 draft. The top four picks this year were determined by a lottery system.

1. St. Louis Maulers (held by Death Valley)
2. Sudbury Snappers
3. Lake County Nighthawks
4. Little Rock Scorpions
5. Fighting Irish
6. California Roadrunners
7. Miami Hustlers (held by Spokane)
8. Mohawk Valley Lions
9. Spokane Hooded Crows
10. West Side Bluejays
11. Rochester Pilots
12. Rosehill Hornets
13. Cape Cod Breakers
14. Wilmington Razorbacks
15. Elysian Fields Flying Dutchmen (held by St. Louis)
16. Northwest Stars
17. Brooklyn Dodgers
18. Northeast Huskies
19. Goldenrod Gators
20. Death Valley Drivers

Note that the draft order will revert to reverse order of standing for the second round and all subsequent rounds. That means the 109-loss Scorpions will lead off the second round, followed by the Snappers (98 losses), Nighthawks (95) and Maulers (95).


Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Active MMDA Manager Register 2017

Northwest manager Ray Ross traces his MMDA roots back to 1989 and has thus managed a league game in each of the past four decades. Next time you converse with Ray, congratulate him on finishing his 29th season in the league in 2017.

Five other MMDA managers joined up in the 1990s and remain active to this day: James Bailey, Jim Baker, Steve Frediani, John Tresca and Steven Tresca. However, a complete statistical record for the MMDA goes back only to 1995, so that's where I drew the line when creating our league's all-time managerial register.

A new wrinkle added this year is Fibonacci win points. This concept was introduced by Bill James in his book Whatever Happened To The Hall Of Fame?, and it balances teams' win totals with their winning percentage to arrive at one pleasing number.

The formula is simply wins (times) winning percentage (plus) wins (minus) losses—or W * PCT + W - L. So rather than rank managers by total wins or by winning percentage, I chose to rank them by Fibonacci win points to balance quality and quantity.

NoManagerWLPctYrsPlayoffHighWHighLFibonacci
1 John Tresca 2145 1581 .576 23 17 120 124 1799
2 Ray Ross 2098 1628 .563 23 19 117 92 1651
3 Steven Tresca 2064 1662 .554 23 18 108 123 1545
4 James Bailey 1973 1753 .530 23 13 105 102 1265
5 Matt Eddy 1318 1274 .508 16 9 113 113 714
6 Steve Frediani 1788 1938 .480 23 9 106 116 708
7 John Lamanna 738 558 .569 8 7 108 78 600
8 Mike Johnson 898 884 .504 11 5 97 97 467
9 Jim Baker 1705 2021 .458 23 2 112 117 464
10 Mike Siddon 1266 1488 .460 17 2 98 103 360
11 Tim Ednoff 518 454 .533 6 3 99 89 340
12 Jim Derer 514 458 .529 6 2 101 87 328
13 G. O'Connor 491 481 .505 6 3 103 95 258
14 J. Gruttadauria 468 504 .481 6 1 87 94 189
15 Ryan McCabe 534 600 .471 7 1 93 108 185
16 Tom Edwards 392 418 .484 5 1 90 105 164
17 Clyde Elkins 375 435 .463 5 2 94 102 114
18 Dave Jones 502 632 .443 7 1 88 106 92
19 Kevin Kasunich 115 209 .355 2 0 64 111 -53
20 Mike Renick 136 350 .280 3 0 53 124 -176

Remember, this data covers the 1995 through 2017 seasons.

Steven Tresca won his 2,000th game in 2017. James Bailey will join the 2,000-win pantheon in 2018.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Drivers Prevail In Dramatic 2017 World Series

GAME 1
Gators 4, Drivers 0

Aaron Sanchez was masterful for the Gators, throwing a compete-game two-hitter. Wilmer Flores tagged Brandon Finnegan for two homers, driving in three of the Gators' four runs.

GAME 2
Drivers 5, Gators 3

The Drivers scratched together a run in the first inning and Goldenrod tied it up in the third. Each team threw up a two-spot in the fourth. Things settled down for the next three innings until the eight when Todd Frazier dropped a bloop single into left field, scoring Yoenis Cespedes and Jedd Gyorko. The Death Valley bullpen of Alex Wood, Chris Devenski and Kelvin Herrera locked down the last three inning to help get the W for the Drivers.

GAME 3
Drivers 2, Gators 1

This was another surprising pitcher's duel. The Gators were able to get to Aaron Nola in the fifth for a run when Jarrod Dyson plated Russell Martin. It looked like that was all the Gators would need as they entered the bottom of the ninth, but then Randal Grichuk stepped to the plate and dumped a home run into the right field seats. Todd Frazier came in to pinch-hit and singled, followed by a Adeiny Hechavarria single. With two on and one out, Welington Castillo shot a grounder up the middle to plate Frazier, and the exuberant Driver faithful celebrated the walk-off and a 2-1 series lead.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

2017 Wrap: Award Winners & League Leaders

A recap collecting important—or at least interesting—tidbits from the just-concluded 2017 season.

Postseason Awards


Here are the MMDA end-of-season award winners, as selected by the Strat-O-Matic game engine. 

MVP
PlayerTeamAB2B3BHRRBIAVGBBSOSBOBPSLG
B.DozierStars65934649125.255451588.313.548
R.CanoHuskies6713633692.319401040.362.542
D.OritzHuskies56568140122.32769850.403.664
K.SeagerStars64134441110.309521163.365.566
F.FreemanR'backs63741741121.298641882.366.578

Voters went heavy for home runs and RBIs this season, selecting Northwest second baseman Brian Dozier as MVP after his 49 and 125 led the MMDA in both categories. He also ranked seventh in runs scored (108), eighth in X-percentage at second base (.838) and ninth in slugging (.548). The gap between Dozier and MVP runner-up Robinson Cano, the Northeast second baseman, was narrow at 372 points to 368.

The best offensive season probably belongs to Northeast DH David Ortiz, who finished fourth in the batting race (.327), first in doubles (68), seventh in home runs (40), second in RBIs (122), first in slugging (.664), fourth in on-base percentage (.403) and first in total bases (375).

CY YOUNG
PitcherTeamWLERAGSSVIPHBBSOHRAVGBB9SO9
R.PorcelloStars2072.603402432193917924.2391.46.6
M.ScherzerDutchmen17103.013402391746927039.1982.610.2
K.JansenBreakers201.2603950265835.1520.914.9
C.KimbrelStars312.65038513428764.1864.913.4
A.MillerLions111.720476845151065.1822.014.0

Northwest righthander Rick Porcello claimed the Cy Young Award, giving the Stars a clean sweep of the major postseason hardware. Voters valued his effectiveness and durability. Porcello led the MMDA in wins (20) and walk rate per nine innings (1.45), while ranking second in ERA (2.60), innings (243), complete games (eight) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.59). He placed third in winning percentage (.741).

Friday, October 6, 2017

Final Power Ranking For 2017


The final poll for the 2017 season. Teams sorted by wins. Ties broken by run differential.

OPS+ and ERA+ are adjusted for ballpark context.

RD stands for run differential and PF for park factor multiplier. BB% and SO/BB ratio do not include intentional walks.

Power Ranking 


No Team WLPCTDivisionR/GOPS+RA/GERA+PFRD
1 Northeast 98 64 .605 Northeast 5.20 111 4.75 99 1.046 73
2 Goldenrod 96 66 .593 Central 5.20 108 4.69 100 1.036 84
3 Northwest 95 67 .586 Pacific 5.34 104 4.18 117 1.072 188
4 Brooklyn 94 68 .580 Pacific 4.65 97 4.08 114 1.027 93
5 Elysian Fields 92 70 .568 Pacific 4.83 107 3.93 115 1.009 145
6 Death Valley 92 70 .568 Atlantic 4.46 93 4.08 111 1.027 61
7 Wilmington 91 71 .562 Atlantic 4.93 113 4.10 105 0.977 135
8 Cape Cod 88 74 .543 Northeast 4.31 106 4.27 97 0.925 6
9 Rosehill 86 76 .531 Central 4.08 89 4.19 107 0.999 -17
10 Rochester 82 80 .506 Atlantic 4.92 105 4.47 104 1.033 73
11 Spokane 80 82 .494 Pacific 3.80 84 3.94 108 0.922 -22
12 West Side 80 82 .494 Northeast 4.94 105 5.38 91 1.084 -71
13 Mohawk Valley 79 83 .488 Atlantic 3.68 98 3.94 102 0.886 -42
14 Miami 75 87 .463 Northeast 4.73 108 4.98 90 1.009 -40
15 California 73 89 .451 Pacific 4.45 102 4.64 92 0.936 -31
16 Fighting Irish68 94 .420 Northeast 4.57 99 5.27 82 0.997 -113
17 St. Louis 67 95 .414 Central 3.58 84 4.09 108 0.989 -82
18 Lake County 67 95 .414 Central 4.24 100 5.20 81 0.957 -155
19 Sudbury 64 98 .395 Atlantic 4.42 93 5.10 93 1.028 -110
20 Little Rock 53 109 .327 Central 4.33 92 5.41 82 1.032 -175

Monday, February 6, 2017

2017 MMDA Draft Supplemental Rounds

Results for the supplemental rounds—this year the eighth through 13th rounds—of the 2017 MMDA draft are as follows. For the first seven rounds—the "regulation" phase—visit the 2017 Draft Results.

EIGHTH ROUND
Gators eighth-rounder Roman Quinn
141 Roadrunners Robbie Ross, lhp, Red Sox
142 Huskies Sammy Solis, lhp, Nationals
143 Bluejays Nick Wittgren, rhp, Marlins
144 Irish Daniel Hudson, rhp, D-backs
145 Dodgers Jett Bandy, c, Angels
146 Manatees Aaron Blair, rhp, Braves
147 Breakers Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Angels
148 Maulers Jake Thompson, rhp, Phillies
149 Dutchmen Jerry Blevins, lhp, Mets
150 Gators Roman Quinn, of, Phillies
151 Lions Brock Stewart, rhp, Dodgers
152 Drivers Nate Karns, rhp, Mariners
153 Crows Tommy Pham, of, Cardinals
154 Nighthawks Daniel Coulombe, lhp, Athletics

NINTH ROUND

155 Roadrunners Dan Jennings, lhp, White Sox
156 Huskies Adam Libertore, lhp, Dodgers
157 Bluejays Daniel Descalso, 2b, Rockies
158 Irish Ariel Miranda, lhp, Mariners
159 Dodgers Ezequiel Carrera, of, Blue Jays
160 Breakers Alec Asher, rhp, Phillies
161 Maulers Tyler Saladino, 3b, White Sox
162 Gators Jake Barrett, rhp, D-backs
163 Lions Ronald Torreyes, 2b, Yankees
164 Drivers Ian Krol, lhp, Braves
165 Crows Chris Coghlan, of, Cubs
166 Nighthawks Adam Rosales, 2b, Padres

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Examining 15 Years Of League History In Five-Year Windows

Note: I updated this file with a corrected calculation for ERA+, which altered a few pitching and balance leaders (March 18, 2017).

The MMDA just completed its 15th season of play in its "online" era. This means we have comprehensive player, team and league data for every season from 2002 through 2016.

To celebrate this odd anniversary, I sliced the data into three five-years periods to see how things shook out. Which were the best regular-season teams from 2002 to 2006? Which teams dominated the playoffs from 2007 to 2011? Which players or teams established league records from 2012 to 2016?

Now we have the answers to these esoteric questions and more.

Granted, dividing the seasons into five-year buckets based on chronology is arbitrary. So at the end of this piece, I divide MMDA history into periods along lines that a historian might draw.

In the tables below PF stands for park factor. Pyth stands for Pythagorean record.


I. Period One: 2002–2006

The best regular season managers from 2002 to 2006 as ranked by wins.

NoManagerWLPctR/GOPS+RA/GERA+HomeRoadPFPyth
1 Steven Tresca 470340.5805.891194.80103+23+42100.589
2John Tresca451359.5574.941014.52109+21+25100.537
3James Bailey450360.5565.481094.78107+30+15109.561
4Ray Ross441369.5444.62944.13115+7+2993.544
5Mike Capriotti440370.5434.65934.30112+26+9104.538

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Active MMDA Manager Register 2016

In the continuing tradition of lifting ideas from Baseball-Reference, I created an all-time register for the 20 active managers in the MMDA.

A similar table to the one that appears here also runs at the bottom of our site's Playoff History page, but even I sometimes forget it's there. So I embellished the data from that page and created a more prominent space for it here on the blog.

Thanks to commissioner James Bailey's record keeping from the early years of the MMDA, I had access to comprehensive won-loss and playoff data back through the 1995 season. So that's where I drew the line for this table. Five active managers played in the league in 1994 or earlier, but the results of those seasons are not reflected here.

Managers are sorted here by career wins. Remember, this data goes back only through the 1995 season.

NoManagerYrsWLPctGHighWHighLPlayoffsWSWonPennWon
1 John Tresca 22 2047 1517 .574 3564 120 124 16 2 5
2 Ray Ross 22 2003 1561 .562 3564 117 92 18 2 5
3 Steven Tresca 22 1976 1588 .554 3564 108 123 17 2 3
4 James Bailey 22 1891 1673 .531 3564 105 102 13 1 1
5 Steve Frediani 22 1708 1856 .479 3564 106 116 9 0 3
6 Jim Baker 22 1614 1950 .453 3564 112 117 1 0 0
7 Matt Eddy 15 1239 1191 .510 2430 113 113 9 2 3
8 Mike Siddon 16 1193 1399 .460 2592 98 103 2 0 0
9 Mike Johnson 10 831 789 .513 1620 97 97 5 0 0
10 John Lamanna 7 642 492 .566 1134 108 78 6 1 1
11 Ryan McCabe 6 466 506 .479 972 93 108 1 0 0
12 Dave Jones 6 435 537 .448 972 88 106 1 1 1
13 Jim Derer 5 428 382 .528 810 101 87 2 0 0
14 Tim Ednoff 5 424 386 .523 810 99 89 2 0 0
15 G. O'Connor 5 399 411 .493 810 103 95 2 0 0
16 J. Gruttadauria 5 388 422 .479 810 87 94 1 0 0
17 Tom Edwards 4 317 331 .489 648 90 105 1 0 0
18 Clyde Elkins 4 283 365 .437 648 94 102 1 0 0
19 Mike Renick 2 83 241 .256 324 45 124 0 0 0
20 Kevin Kasunich 1 51 111 .315 162 51 111 0 0 0

Monday, January 9, 2017

Most Decorated Managers Of The Past Decade

Bill James once proposed a method for evaluating managers' worthiness for enshrinement in Cooperstown. He assigned weighted values to various accomplishments, such as World Series championships (eight points each), pennants not resulting in a championship (five), division titles (three), career wins (one point per 200) and 100-win seasons (one).

Last year, I applied James' manager standards to the past decade of MMDA play, and John Tresca's Northeast Huskies ranked No. 1 for the 2006-2015 period.

This year I applied those same standards to the past 10 seasons of MMDA play, 2007-2016, to see if anyone challenged John for the top spot. This time, however, I substituted top-four playoff seedings for division titles, because division titles are practically meaningless in our league format.

MMDA teams receive no bonus for winning their division and, in fact, just three of the past eight league champions won their division, whereas two teams that qualified for the playoffs as the No. 8 seed—2012 Goldenrod and 2016 Lake County—actually won the whole thing.

I included division titles in the table below, even though it does not count toward the final score. The Avg-W column is simply Wins divided by Years.

No.ManagerYearsAvg-WWSPennDivTop-4Wins*100-WTotal
1 John Tresca 10 98 1 2 8 8 978 7 53
2 Matt Eddy 10 94 2 1 5 3 941 2 36
3 Ray Ross 10 93 1 2 4 3 925 3 34
4 Steven Tresca 10 86 1 1 1 4 862 3 32
5 John Lamanna 7 92 1 3 4 642 1 24
6 Steve Frediani 10 792 2 1 794 16
7 James Bailey 10 85 4 3 853 1 14
8 Dave Jones 6 73 1 435 10
9 Jim Baker 10 781 1 781 1 7
10 Jim Derer 5 86 1 1 428 1 6
11 Tim Ednoff 5 85 1 1 424 5
Ryan McCabe 6 78 1 466 5
George O'Connor 5 80 1 1 399 1 5
14 Clyde Elkins 4 71 1 283 4
15 Mike Johnson 9 85 1 762 3
Mike Siddon 10 74 742 3
17 Tom Edwards 4 79 317 1
Jim Gruttadauria 5 78 388 1
19 Kevin Kasunich 1 51 51 0
Mike Renick 2 42 83 0
* Teams awarded one point for every 200 wins

Thursday, January 5, 2017

Top 10 Uncarded Prospects Omitted From 2017 Draft

By Matt Eddy

Shortstops Corey Seager and Trea Turner were the top two rookies in the National League in 2016, but neither will be available for selection in the upcoming MMDA draft. That's because both were first-round picks last year following September callups in 2015.

Yoan Moncada might be the most dynamic
power-speed prospect in baseball
The Scorpions took Seager No. 4 overall and the Huskies snagged Turner, who also plays center field and second base, at No. 15. Both teams appear quite wise for making those selections.

Despite the fact that this year's draft lacks Seager and Turner, two of the game's most promising young shortstops, it is not deficient in talent overall. For example, the only two American League players to receive first-place votes in rookie of the year balloting—Tigers righthander Michael Fulmer and Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez—are both draft eligible. So are the other five AL players to receive ROY votes.

The depth of the 2016 rookie crop is impressive, but of course not every rookie receives a card from Strat—and only carded players may be drafted in the MMDA. Still, just think how much better this year's draft class would look if some of the following rookies were eligible for selection.

To repeat: The following players made their big league debuts in 2016 but are not eligible for the MMDA draft in February. Keep tabs on them for the 2018 draft, because I can't be wrong about all of them.

1. Yoan Moncada, 2b/3b, Red Sox (now White Sox)

Moncada went just 4-for-19 with 12 strikeouts during a September callup with the Red Sox, but he has few rivals in terms of physical ability, not to mention a long list of credentials. The 21-year-old Cuban claimed the Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year award in 2016, for a season he spent at high Class A Salem and Double-A Portland. In 106 games overall Moncada hit .294/.407/.511 with 15 home runs, 37 doubles-plus-triples, 45 stolen bases and 72 walks. Just don't expect him to win any Gold Gloves.

The Red Sox traded Moncada and three other prospects to the White Sox for Chris Sale at the 2016 Winter Meetings.