Saturday, January 14, 2017

Examining 15 Years Of League History In Five-Year Windows

Note: I updated this file with a corrected calculation for ERA+, which altered a few pitching and balance leaders (March 18, 2017).

The MMDA just completed its 15th season of play in its "online" era. This means we have comprehensive player, team and league data for every season from 2002 through 2016.

To celebrate this odd anniversary, I sliced the data into three five-years periods to see how things shook out. Which were the best regular-season teams from 2002 to 2006? Which teams dominated the playoffs from 2007 to 2011? Which players or teams established league records from 2012 to 2016?

Now we have the answers to these esoteric questions and more.

Granted, dividing the seasons into five-year buckets based on chronology is arbitrary. So at the end of this piece, I divide MMDA history into periods along lines that a historian might draw.

In the tables below PF stands for park factor. Pyth stands for Pythagorean record.


I. Period One: 2002–2006

The best regular season managers from 2002 to 2006 as ranked by wins.

NoManagerWLPctR/GOPS+RA/GERA+HomeRoadPFPyth
1 Steven Tresca 470340.5805.891194.80103+23+42100.589
2John Tresca451359.5574.941014.52109+21+25100.537
3James Bailey450360.5565.481094.78107+30+15109.561
4Ray Ross441369.5444.62944.13115+7+2993.544
5Mike Capriotti440370.5434.65934.30112+26+9104.538

Note: A lack of home/road split data for 2002 and 2003 means that park factors for those seasons don't exist. Also, the OPS+ and ERA+ calculations for those two seasons are not adjusted for home park. 

Top Run-Creation Team
• Period: Cape Cod Breakers (Steven Tresca), 119 OPS+
• Season: 2003 Newton Rockcrushers (Bob Tresca), 139 OPS+ 

Top Run-Prevention Team
• Period: Northwest Stars (Ray Ross), 115 ERA+
• Season: 2004 Spokane Hooded Crows (Steve Frediani), 127 ERA+ 

Most Balanced Team
• Period: Port City Podunks (Jeff Green), 111
• Season: 2006 Bethlehem Beaz (Kevin Burns), 124

Extreme Ballparks
Batter-Friendly: Pacific Coast Pirates (Jeff Olson), 115 park factor
Pitcher-Friendly: Abilene Wind (Carl Kieke), 90 park factor

League Records

Team: The Newton Rockcrushers (Bob Tresca) established many of the top offensive team performances of the past 15 seasons during this period. Among their accomplishments are records (since 2002) for runs (1,194 in 2003), slugging percentage (.547 in 2002) and home runs (359 in 2002).

Individual: Barry Bonds hit 82 home runs and drove in 180 runs for the Rochester Pilots (James Bailey) in 2002. Though not league records, both are high-water marks for the league since 2002. Greg Maddux of Newton (Bob Tresca) won 29 games in 2002, and that total has not been surpassed in the years since.

Worst Record
• Period: Wilmington Razorbacks (Jim Baker), 297-515 (.366)
• Season: 2002 Pacific Coast Pirates (Jeff Olson), 44-118 with 82 OPS+, 67 ERA+

The best postseason managers from 2002 to 2006 as ranked by wins.

NoManagerWLPctSeriesWonWSWonPennWon
1 Kevin Burns248.750622
2John Tresca2315.605512
3Ray Ross1917.528301
4Steven Tresca1813.593311
5Steve Beard1713.567301

Bob Tresca (16-11, one World Series win) and Mike Yingst (16-14, one pennant) also enjoyed notable postseason success during this period.


II. Period Two: 2007–2011

The best regular season managers from 2007 to 2011 as ranked by wins.

NoManagerWLPctR/GOPS+RA/GERA+HomeRoadPFPyth
1 Kevin Burns522288.6446.081234.67103+60+57101.628
2John Tresca493317.6095.461154.43107+36+5298.600
3Steven Tresca492318.6075.781154.56108+43+43108.607
4Matt Eddy462348.5705.251074.43109+28+29101.574
5Ray Ross455355.5624.49993.90113+7+4388.560

Top Run-Creation Team
• Period: Bethlehem Beaz (Kevin Burns), 123 OPS+
• Season: 2007 Bethlehem Beaz (Kevin Burns), 138 OPS+ 

Top Run-Prevention Team
• Period: Northwest Stars (Ray Ross), 113 ERA+
• Season: 2008 California Roadrunners (Mike Siddon), 127 ERA+ 

Most Balanced Team
• Period: Cape Cod Breakers (Steven Tresca), 111
• Season: 2007 Bethlehem Beaz (Kevin Burns), 131

Extreme Ballparks
Batter-Friendly: Northern Lehigh Bulldogs (Adam Leickel), 120 park factor
Pitcher-Friendly: Jersey Blackhawks (Eric Campbell), 85 park factor

League Records

Team: Playing in an extreme hitter's park, the Northern Lehigh Bulldogs (Adam Leickel) hit .312 with a .392 on-base percentage in 2009, establishing high-water marks in the league since 2002.

Individual: Albert Pujols of the Northern Lehigh Bulldogs (Adam Leickel) hit .403 in 2009, and Chipper Jones hit .390 for the same team in the same season. These are the highest batting averages I can find outside of Tony Gwynn, who hit .406 back in 1995. Craig Kimbrel of the Northwest Stars (Ray Ross) saved 56 games in 2012, which is the highest total since 2002.

Worst Record
• Period: USAFSS SQ#37 (Richard Watts), 153-333 (.315)
• Season: 2008 Tampa Bay Bats (Jeff Olson), 44-118 with 74 OPS+, 73 ERA+

The best postseason managers from 2007 to 2011 as ranked by wins.

NoManagerWLPctSeriesWonWSWonPennWon
1 Kevin Burns4023.635923
2Steven Tresca3224.571612
3John Tresca2424.500401
4Adam Leickel1913.594411
5Steve Beard1412.538301

Ray Ross (14-14, one World Series win) and Steve Frediani (9-8, one pennant) also enjoyed notable postseason success during this period.


III. Period Three: 2012–2016

The best regular season managers from 2012 to 2016 as ranked by wins.

NoManagerWLPctR/GOPS+RA/GERA+HomeRoadPFPyth
1 John Tresca485325.5994.971114.19105+42+38102.572
2Matt Eddy479331.5914.791123.84108+42+3289.601
3Ray Ross470340.5804.36993.66114+39+2695.576
4John Lamanna461349.5694.601093.99107+36+2098.566
5Mike Johnson437373.5404.05933.84111+13+19101.526

Top Run-Creation Team
• Period: Mohawk Valley Lions (Matt Eddy), 112 OPS+
• Season: 2014 Brooklyn Dodgers (Tim Ednoff), 128 OPS+ 

Top Run-Prevention Team
• Period: Northwest Stars (Ray Ross), 114 ERA+
• Season: 2016 St. Louis Maulers (Mike Johnson), 129 ERA+ 

Most Balanced Team
• Period: Mohawk Valley Lions (Matt Eddy), 109
• Season: 2016 Goldenrod Gators (John Lamanna), 120

Extreme Ballparks
Batter-Friendly: Death Valley Drivers (George O'Connor), 114 park factor
Pitcher-Friendly: Spokane Hooded Crows (Steve Frediani), 87 park factor

League Records

Team: The Spokane Hooded Crows (Steve Frediani) rewrote the pitching record book during this period by establishing league marks for fewest runs allowed (489 in 2015), ERA (2.62 in 2015), WHIP (1.072 in 2016) and fewest home runs allowed (108 in 2015). The Mohawk Valley Lions (Matt Eddy) established a league record for pitcher strikeouts with 1,462 in 2013.

Individual: Zack Greinke of the Spokane Hooded Crows (Steve Frediani) recorded a 1.51 ERA in 2016, which is the lowest figure since 2002. Crows rotation-mate Clayton Kershaw ranks third, fourth and sixth on the list with ERAs ranging from 1.94 to 2.08 in 2013, 2015 and 2016. In an era dominated by pitchers, two offensive performances stand out. Lake County's (Dave Jones) Jose Altuve hit .350 in 2015 to rank 12th since 2002. Goldenrod's (John Lamanna) Chris Davis hit 64 home runs in 2014 to rank eighth since 2002.

Worst Record
• Period: Elysian Fields Flying Dutchmen (Clyde Elkins), 283-365 (.437), among teams with at least three seasons. Minimum two seasons: Little Rock Scorpions (Mike Renick), 83-241 (.256).
• Season: 2016 Little Rock Scorpions (Mike Renick), 38-124 with 75 OPS+, 72 ERA+

The best postseason managers from 2012 to 2016 as ranked by wins.

NoManagerWLPctSeriesWonWSWonPennWon
1 Matt Eddy4628.6221023
2John Lamanna2620.565511
3John Tresca2524.510512
4Ray Ross2428.462402
5Steve Frediani1918.514301

Dave Jones (12-5, one World Series win) also enjoyed notable postseason success during this period.


Now we come to the historical boundaries mentioned in the introduction. If history is told from the point of view of the victor, then we might divide MMDA history into the following eras:

The Tresca Dynasty • 1995-2004 
During this period, either Bob (1996, 97, 98, 2000, 03), John (2004) or Steven Tresca (2002) won the World Series in seven of the 10 seasons. John also won a pennant in 2002, only to fall to Steven in an all-Tresca World Series. At least one Tresca brother made the final four each season, and in most years at least two advanced to round two of the playoffs.

Stars Of Bethlehem • 2005-2011
The Bethlehem Beaz won four World Series in seven years during this period, and the run included a three-peat from 2005 from 2007. Kevin Burns went 64-31 (.674) in the postseason while claiming 15 series victories and five pennants.

Lions In Autumn • 2012-2016
Mohawk Valley in this five-year period won nearly two-thirds of their playoff games (.622) while claiming 10 series, three pennants and back-to-back World Series championships in 2014 and 2015. Stretch back to 2011 and Matt Eddy won at least one playoff series in six consecutive years, which has not been done by any other team going back to 1995.


Marginal home/road wins are calculated against the league's historical home (.529) and road (.471) winning percentages, which translate to an average of 43 home wins and 38 road wins per season.

The most balanced teams are determined by finding the harmonic mean between a team's OPS+ and ERA+ metrics. 

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