Top Eight Rotations You Want To Avoid In The Playoffs

By Matt Eddy

How strong is the link between rotation quality and team success in a 20-team Strat league? In the case of the MMDA: pretty strong.

Prior to the 2015 season, I ranked the top eight MMDA rotations in terms of the quality of each club's top four starters—the quartet most likely to appear in a playoff series. As it turned out, four of the top six teams on that ranking advanced to the league semifinals in 2015. The No. 2 Miami Manatees met the No. 3 Northwest Stars in one bracket, while in the other, the No. 4 Mohawk Valley Lions combated the No. 6 Spokane Hooded Crows.

So let's give it another go. Just like last year, I will rank in this space the eight most fearsome rotations in the MMDA, at least according to the on-base and total-base units for the top four starter cards on each team.

The methodology is slightly changed this year. I used the SOM World starting pitcher rankings to remove my subjectivity and personal bias from the exercise. I also weighted the starter cards on a simple 4-3-2-1 scale to reward clubs with top-heavy rotations. After all, a club's top two starters likely will compile the most playoff innings.

Each club's top four starters—again, according to SOM World—are included here, along with their overall rank among starters. An asterisk (*) denotes that a pitcher may come back on short rest in the playoffs.

1. Spokane Hooded Crows (Pacific)
RHP Zack Greinke (2*), LHP Clayton Kershaw (3*), RHP Jesse Hahn (15), LHP Cole Hamels (16*)

Four of the top 20 starters in the 2016 set can be found in the Crows' rotation, so this is the matchup that opposing teams will want to put off as long as possible in the playoffs. Greinke (1.66 ERA) and Kershaw (301 strikeouts) form the best righty-lefty one-two punch in the game, and both of them can pitch on short rest in the playoffs. Gulp.

Round One: Mohawk Valley 4, Rochester 2

Game recaps from the Strat-generated box scores. In this Round One matchup, the No. 2 Mohawk Valley Lions (113-49) had home-field advantage versus the No. 7 Rochester Pilots (86-76).

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Game One
Pilots 2, Lions 1

Starters: Jake Arrieta @ Garrett Richards

In a thriller the Rochester Pilots staged a dramatic comeback then held on to win over the Mohawk Valley Lions by a score of 2 to 1 at The Lion's Den.

Rochester scored the decisive runs in a big 9th inning with 2 runs utilizing 2 base hits. After an out was recorded, Matt Adams began the Rochester spurt when he doubled. Devin Mesoraco came to the plate and bombed a two-run dinger. Both teams totaled 6 hits on the night. 

Jordan Walden (1-0) picked up the victory, allowing no runs in 1 inning. Walden got relief help from Joaquin Benoit who gained credit for his 1st save. Joe Smith(0-1) suffered the loss in relief. He surrendered 2 runs and 2 hits in 1 inning.

Applying Ballpark Factors To MMDA Team Statistics

Customizing ballpark factors is one of the most difficult and agonizing decisions managers face each spring. Finding the most harmonious rate for single and home run frequency can add wins to a team's bottom line, but finding that perfect balance of offense and defense requires a deep understanding of player personnel—and also a lot of educated guesswork.

For years, I have endeavored to create ballpark factors for MMDA teams based on the statistical record, but until recently I had been stymied in my effort to find home/road splits. That changed when a fellow Strat obsessive pointed me to the line scores found within the League Stats menu.

With access to all teams' line scores, I summed all the runs a team scored and allowed at home, and then summed the same totals for each team on the road. Once I had those totals I could figure per-game rates by dividing by 81, and then compare those two rates to quantify the extent to which each MMDA park amplified or suppressed run production in a given season.

While I fully intend to apply this park-factor epiphany to the 2015 statistical record, I will do so only at the conclusion of the season, when teams have visited every park on their schedule and playing time has been fully distributed. Also, it takes some time to build the framework, so I only want to perform the calculations once per season.

However, this doesn't preclude me from revisiting the recent past and applying park factors to the 2014 data. From highest to lowest, here are the park factors I calculated for the 2014 season:

No	Team	Home R/G	Road R/G	Park Factor	Multiplier
1	Miami	8.86	7.99	111	1.055
2	Wilmington	9.33	8.68	108	1.038
3	Goldenrod	9.28	8.64	107	1.037
4	Death Valley	9.10	8.49	107	1.036
5	West Side	9.01	8.43	107	1.034
6	Elysian Fields	8.52	8.04	106	1.030
	Northeast	9.46	8.93	106	1.030
8	St. Louis	8.09	7.73	105	1.023
9	Brooklyn	10.17	9.79	104	1.020
10	Columbus	7.86	7.60	103	1.017
11	Rochester	8.42	8.22	102	1.012
12	Fighting Irish	9.05	8.95	101	1.006
13	Lake County	7.99	7.91	101	1.005
14	Jersey	8.51	8.51	100	1.000
15	Cape Cod	9.22	9.59	96	0.981
16	Rosehill	8.01	8.44	95	0.974
17	Mohawk Valley	7.83	8.47	92	0.962
18	California	8.40	9.65	87	0.935
19	Spokane	6.53	7.93	82	0.912
20	Northwest	6.75	8.40	80	0.902

A Crude Ranking Of The Eight Hardest-Hitting Lineups

By Matt Eddy

This piece does not attempt to rank the best collections of position players in the MMDA, because defensive proficiency is not considered. Nor does it single out the best rate performers (always handy for the playoffs) or account for a lineup's strength versus lefthanded starters.

Anthony Rendon's emergence fortifies a Dodgers lineup
that already had Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera

This simply measures the quality (runs created) and quantity (at-bats) of offense produced by each team's projected regulars around the diamond. In other words, we would expect these lineups in a neutral ballpark context and against a standard percentage of righthanded starters to score the most runs over 162 games.

To measure offensive quality, I identified the probable lineup regulars for each team, then ranked those regulars by projected runs created. Because this is a crude measure, I used a Roto-style scoring system, such that teams received points based on where their players ranked among the 20 MMDA regulars.

For example, the No. 1 center fielder, Mike Trout, bestowed one point to the Dodgers. The No. 2 first baseman, Miguel Cabrera, credited Brooklyn with two points, and so on down line. The lowest point total for any player is 20. I then summed those point totals for all nine lineup regulars to arrive at a ranking, and here it is. Remember that lower scores are best.

1. Brooklyn Dodgers (Pacific)
Total: 67.
C—Dioner Navarro (9). 1B—Miguel Cabrera (2). 2B—Neil Walker (5). 3B—Anthony Rendon (2). SS—Jimmy Rollins (11). LF—Rajai Davis (16). CF—Mike Trout (1). RF—Jon Jay (12). DH—Hanley Ramirez (9).

The Dodgers scored more than 100 additional runs than any MMDA team in 2014, and expect them to repeat as the league's top offense this season. Cabrera and Trout continue to rank among the elite players in the, while 2014 first-rounder Rendon has supplanted Ramirez as the club's third banana. Extra RH bats: Trevor Plouffe, Collin Cowgill.

Top Eight Rotations You Want To Avoid In The Playoffs

By Matt Eddy

Nothing makes a manager's heart sink quite like the prospect of facing an opponent's stacked rotation in a short playoff series. The defense controls the ball in baseball, and the starter is the defense's most vital component.

The addition of Carlos Carrasco put the
Pilots rotation over the top

What follows are the eight most fearsome rotations in the MMDA, at least according to the on-base and total-base units on top four starter cards for each team. To arrive at this ranking, I took all starters with at least 125 innings (a group that numbered 120 pitchers), because 125 innings distills down to 13 innings in a playoff series, which is more than enough to cover two starts in seven games. Using my valuation formula, I then determined which teams could throw the four most-effective starters out there in a short series.

Drawbacks to this method: (1) strikeout chances are not considered, which is too bad because the strikeout is the ultimate neutralizing weapon; (2) some teams will rely on just three starters with an asterisk rating to see them through a seven-game series; and (3) a poor offense and/or low innings totals and/or poor No. 5 starters will almost certainly prevent some of the following teams from actually qualifying for the playoffs. Each pitcher's overall rank (by my formula) is listed in parentheses; an asterisk denotes a starter who can go on short rest in the playoffs.

Note that the Pilots (RHP Drew Hutchison), Stars (RHP Rick Porcello) and Lions (LHP Drew Smyly) had a fifth starter rank in the upper half of qualified starters, but those pitchers are not considered in the following exercise.

1. Rochester Pilots (Atlantic)
RHP Carlos Carrasco (2), RHP Jake Arrieta (4), LHP Jon Lester (12*), RHP Matt Garza (33)

The Pilots selected Carrasco 13th overall in this year's draft, about a year after they struck gold with a late-2013 trade with the Irish in which they dealt a fifth-round pick for Arrieta. Now, Rochester can turn to two of the top four starter cards up to four times in a playoff series.

Round One: Northeast 4, Rochester 3

In this Round One matchup, the No. 1 Northeast Huskies (101-61) had home-field advantage versus the No. 8 Rochester Pilots (86-76).

Game One
Huskies 6, Pilots 1

First baseman Allen Craig hit a homerun at Huskie Park where the Northeast Huskies beat the Rochester Pilots 6 to 1.

Adam Wainwright (1-0) earned his pay with a solid performance for Northeast. He was reached for 9 hits and no walks in 7 and 2/3 innings. Northeast banged out 8 hits on the night.

John Lackey (0-1) absorbed the loss. He served up 3 gopher balls in 5 and 1/3 innings.