Top Eight Rotations You Want To Avoid In The Playoffs

By Matt Eddy

Nothing makes a manager's heart sink quite like the prospect of facing an opponent's stacked rotation in a short playoff series. The defense controls the ball in baseball, and the starter is the defense's most vital component.

The addition of Carlos Carrasco put the
Pilots rotation over the top

What follows are the eight most fearsome rotations in the MMDA, at least according to the on-base and total-base units on top four starter cards for each team. To arrive at this ranking, I took all starters with at least 125 innings (a group that numbered 120 pitchers), because 125 innings distills down to 13 innings in a playoff series, which is more than enough to cover two starts in seven games. Using my valuation formula, I then determined which teams could throw the four most-effective starters out there in a short series.

Drawbacks to this method: (1) strikeout chances are not considered, which is too bad because the strikeout is the ultimate neutralizing weapon; (2) some teams will rely on just three starters with an asterisk rating to see them through a seven-game series; and (3) a poor offense and/or low innings totals and/or poor No. 5 starters will almost certainly prevent some of the following teams from actually qualifying for the playoffs. Each pitcher's overall rank (by my formula) is listed in parentheses; an asterisk denotes a starter who can go on short rest in the playoffs.

Note that the Pilots (RHP Drew Hutchison), Stars (RHP Rick Porcello) and Lions (LHP Drew Smyly) had a fifth starter rank in the upper half of qualified starters, but those pitchers are not considered in the following exercise.

1. Rochester Pilots (Atlantic)
RHP Carlos Carrasco (2), RHP Jake Arrieta (4), LHP Jon Lester (12*), RHP Matt Garza (33)

The Pilots selected Carrasco 13th overall in this year's draft, about a year after they struck gold with a late-2013 trade with the Irish in which they dealt a fifth-round pick for Arrieta. Now, Rochester can turn to two of the top four starter cards up to four times in a playoff series.

2. Miami Manatees (Northeast)
RHP Corey Kluber (7*), RHP Johnny Cueto (9*), RHP Anibal Sanchez (11), LHP Gio Gonzalez (42)

The Manatees will throw both the AL Cy Young award winner (Kluber) and the NL runner-up (Cueto) in a playoff series, and both have the asterisk required to go on short rest, if needed. Oh by the way, Miami selected Kluber in the sixth round (No. 120 overall) of the 2013 draft.

3. Northwest Stars (Pacific)
LHP Scott Kazmir (16), RHP Jordan Zimmermann (17*), RHP Doug Fister (19), RHP Marcus Stroman (21)

While the Stars lack the big ace cards that the Pilots or Manatees can play, they have a much more balanced rotation, with no perceptible dip in quality between the No. 1 and No. 4 starters.

4. Mohawk Valley Lions (Atlantic)
RHP Garrett Richards (6), LHP David Price (14*), RHP Yu Darvish (35), RHP Stephen Strasburg (51*)

Darvish and Strasburg must be tired from pitching deep into October in 2014, because their cards take giant steps back in this set. Richards, an eighth-rounder in 2013, steps forward to serve as ace of this staff.

5. West Side Bluejays (Northeast)
LHP Chris Sale (3), RHP Phil Hughes (24*), RHP Max Scherzer (27*), RHP Kyle Gibson (53)

This top-heavy configuration boasts a pair of aces while receiving a boost from a Hughes breakthrough and arrival of 2015 third-rounder Gibson.

6. Spokane Hooded Crows (Pacific)
LHP Clayton Kershaw (1), LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (32), LHP Cole Hamels (36*), RHP Zack Greinke (38*)

This Dodgers-centric rotation will keep the Crows competitive with four of the top 40 starter cards in the set. Don't plan to get much from your lefthanded hitters when Spokane comes to town.

7. Lake County Nighthawks (Central)
RHP Hisashi Iwakuma (18), RHP Sonny Gray (23*), RHP Hiroki Kuroda (30*), LHP Jose Quintana (37*)

The Nighthawks might not light up the scoreboard in 2015, but the club's rotation should prevent them from finishing with the league's worst record again.

8. Death Valley Drivers (Atlantic)
RHP Alex Cobb (25), RHP Tyson Ross (28), RHP Lance Lynn (34*), RHP Chris Tillman (54*)

The Drivers looked to the future in the 2015 draft, but a solid rotation and a career-year from Michael Brantley should have them hot on the heels of Rochester and Mohawk Valley in a tough Atlantic division. All three teams qualified for the playoffs in 2014, with a razor-thin margin between the Lions' 87 wins and the 86 racked up by Death Valley and Rochester.