A Crude Ranking Of The Eight Hardest-Hitting Lineups

By Matt Eddy

This piece does not attempt to rank the best collections of position players in the MMDA, because defensive proficiency is not considered. Nor does it single out the best rate performers (always handy for the playoffs) or account for a lineup's strength versus lefthanded starters.

Anthony Rendon's emergence fortifies a Dodgers lineup
that already had Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera

This simply measures the quality (runs created) and quantity (at-bats) of offense produced by each team's projected regulars around the diamond. In other words, we would expect these lineups in a neutral ballpark context and against a standard percentage of righthanded starters to score the most runs over 162 games.

To measure offensive quality, I identified the probable lineup regulars for each team, then ranked those regulars by projected runs created. Because this is a crude measure, I used a Roto-style scoring system, such that teams received points based on where their players ranked among the 20 MMDA regulars.

For example, the No. 1 center fielder, Mike Trout, bestowed one point to the Dodgers. The No. 2 first baseman, Miguel Cabrera, credited Brooklyn with two points, and so on down line. The lowest point total for any player is 20. I then summed those point totals for all nine lineup regulars to arrive at a ranking, and here it is. Remember that lower scores are best.

1. Brooklyn Dodgers (Pacific)
Total: 67.
C—Dioner Navarro (9). 1B—Miguel Cabrera (2). 2B—Neil Walker (5). 3B—Anthony Rendon (2). SS—Jimmy Rollins (11). LF—Rajai Davis (16). CF—Mike Trout (1). RF—Jon Jay (12). DH—Hanley Ramirez (9).

The Dodgers scored more than 100 additional runs than any MMDA team in 2014, and expect them to repeat as the league's top offense this season. Cabrera and Trout continue to rank among the elite players in the, while 2014 first-rounder Rendon has supplanted Ramirez as the club's third banana. Extra RH bats: Trevor Plouffe, Collin Cowgill.

Top Eight Rotations You Want To Avoid In The Playoffs

By Matt Eddy

Nothing makes a manager's heart sink quite like the prospect of facing an opponent's stacked rotation in a short playoff series. The defense controls the ball in baseball, and the starter is the defense's most vital component.

The addition of Carlos Carrasco put the
Pilots rotation over the top

What follows are the eight most fearsome rotations in the MMDA, at least according to the on-base and total-base units on top four starter cards for each team. To arrive at this ranking, I took all starters with at least 125 innings (a group that numbered 120 pitchers), because 125 innings distills down to 13 innings in a playoff series, which is more than enough to cover two starts in seven games. Using my valuation formula, I then determined which teams could throw the four most-effective starters out there in a short series.

Drawbacks to this method: (1) strikeout chances are not considered, which is too bad because the strikeout is the ultimate neutralizing weapon; (2) some teams will rely on just three starters with an asterisk rating to see them through a seven-game series; and (3) a poor offense and/or low innings totals and/or poor No. 5 starters will almost certainly prevent some of the following teams from actually qualifying for the playoffs. Each pitcher's overall rank (by my formula) is listed in parentheses; an asterisk denotes a starter who can go on short rest in the playoffs.

Note that the Pilots (RHP Drew Hutchison), Stars (RHP Rick Porcello) and Lions (LHP Drew Smyly) had a fifth starter rank in the upper half of qualified starters, but those pitchers are not considered in the following exercise.

1. Rochester Pilots (Atlantic)
RHP Carlos Carrasco (2), RHP Jake Arrieta (4), LHP Jon Lester (12*), RHP Matt Garza (33)

The Pilots selected Carrasco 13th overall in this year's draft, about a year after they struck gold with a late-2013 trade with the Irish in which they dealt a fifth-round pick for Arrieta. Now, Rochester can turn to two of the top four starter cards up to four times in a playoff series.

Ranking The MMDA Draft Classes

By Matt Eddy

We can make only educated guesses as to how the young players in this year's MMDA draft will fare in the major leagues, but we know exactly how the veterans ought to perform during the 2015 season. It's right there on their Strat cards.

So with the help of the SOM World value-estimation tools, I decided to rank all 20 drafts in terms of total runs above average (RAA) projected for 2015. These RAA values assume that managers will use each card to the very last at-bat or inning, so in other words, it's the roughest of estimates. However, it does indicate pretty well which teams are going for it this year.

Also presented here are total picks (with first pick in parentheses), the rate of RAA per pick, the best card (purely in terms of RAA) and a listing of Baseball America Top 10 Prospects drafted by each club.

The Roadrunners traded up to select Steve Pearce at No. 23.
That move put them over the top in terms of draft-day value.

1. California Roadrunners 
(122 RAA)
Total Picks: 7 (#7)
RAA Per Pick: 17.4
Best Card: 3B Josh Harrison (34 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None

The Roadrunners held two picks among the top 25 and landed two of the heaviest hitters available—and both 3B Josh Harrison and 1B/LF Steve Pearce offer positional flexibility. 

2. Spokane Hooded Crows 
(107 RAA)
Total Picks: 12 (#2)
RAA Per Pick: 8.9
Best Card: LF J.D. Martinez (42 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: CF Joc Pederson (Dodgers), 3B Garin Cecchini (Red Sox)

The Crows traded their own first- and second-round picks to acquire the No. 2 overall selection, which they used to take Pederson, but they emphasized card value elsewhere by taking players like LF J.D. Martinez, RHP Jesse Hahn and LHP Tony Sipp.  

3. Rosehill Hornets (105 RAA)
Total Picks: 10 (#8)
RAA Per Pick: 10.5
Best Card: 3B Casey McGehee (20 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None

The Hornets targeted card value all the way down the line, leading things off with a succession of picks including RHP Masahiro Tanaka, 2B Dee Gordon and RHP Ken Giles in the first two rounds.

Dodgers Adhere To Pre-Draft Plan

By Tim Ednoff

Coming off a solid 2014 and with minimal holes to fill, the Dodgers were able to go into the draft with the primary strategy of adding to the bullpen while also taking the best player available. The bullpen was an area of concern, for the Dodgers recently parted with Joaquin Benoit and Jordan Walden in order to buy low on Jay Bruce.

Jon Singleton has time to percolate on the Dodgers' farm

Round 1: No pick. Traded in 2014 to acquire Sergio Romo and Justin Masterson for a playoff run.

Round 2: Brad Boxberger. Was set to take Mike Fiers or Dallas Kuechel as they kept falling in order to upgrade the weakest part of my team (the rotation). Keuchel was selected the pick before. Ended up taking Boxberger here because of his current year card value and age. Still, if I were to do it over again I would have taken Matt Shoemaker here who got selected the pick after mine. A ton of right handed relievers still left on the board at this point.

Round 3: Jon Singleton. best prospect available in my eyes. Debated between Singleton, Vargas, Heaney and Jimmy Nelson here. Vargas and Nelson have shown more to date in the major leagues, but it is a bet on the athleticism and the tools. He's still just 24 years old and hit lefties very well as a rookie, though the 40% K rate and the makeup are big concerns. Thought the upside validated the risk here. No pressure to develop right away with Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez ahead of him at 1b and DH, respectively.

Roadrunners Zero In On Top Bats

By Mike Siddon

RANCHO MIRAGE, Calif.—The California Roadrunners went into the draft as prepared as they could be. Mookie Betts was the player who topped the wish list, but when he went to The Breakers at # 4, Josh Harrison was the apparent pick at # 7 when he was available.

Will Josh Harrison's hustle endear him with California fans?

Harrison will most likely be the starting 2B as Aaron Hill is coming off a down season. Harrison has decent numbers vs. both LHP and RHP and may be the leadoff hitter for California.

California's second pick in the draft and #23 overall was Steve Pearce, a pre-draft favorite to join the Roadrunners. Manager Mike Siddon felt the need to have an extra pick in the second round to secure Pearce and go after a decent starter a few picks later. Pearce will add a decent bat and will likely be penciled in as the cleanup hitter. With Pearce at 1B, Chris Carter will be the full-time DH.

Hornets Address Two Key Needs In First Round

By Jim Derer
    
The Rosehill Hornets went into the draft with a need to upgrade their starting pitching and to get a starting 2B. We also needed backups at catcher, shortstop, and 1B.

The Hornets happily drafted Masahiro Tanaka at No. 8

As the first round unfolded, we were shocked that Masahiro Tanaka dropped to us at #8! We had him projected as the #1 SP and we didn't think he would last that long as other drafts and various projected drafts had him going in the top 4. Our next first-round pick was at #14 and we were able to get our 2B in Dee Gordon who should be our leadoff hitter, and we'll use Freddy Galvis to sub defensively in the late innings.
 
We projected that we could get our future closer in the second round with our pick #28 and luckily we were right. We selected Ken Giles who should help in a limited role this season and we expect big things from him in the future.

Draft Takes Shape Organically For Crows After Pederson

By Steve Frediani

Joc Pederson had no chance to get past the Crows at No. 2

While not quite as prepared as I would have liked to be, it was a pretty good draft and a lot of fun.

Going into the draft the Crows had only ONE usable relief pitcher (Luke Gregerson) on the roster, but felt that the abundance of relief cards would allow us to put together a workable bullpen at the end of the draft.

#2. Joc Pederson. We traded up to get this pick, and there was never any doubt that Pederson would be our guy

#18. While I did entertain thoughts of Dellin Betances or Rusney Castillo, I had engaged in previous discussions with Matt regarding this pick for Yasmani Grandal. Since J.D. Martinez had not gone lower than 12 in all the drafts I was aware of, I felt he was our best chance of making this deal work.

Scorpions Push Reset Button In 2015 Draft

By Mike Renick

The franchise known as the Columbus Clippers was recently sold and relocated to Little Rock, Ark. Team owners moved swiftly to rebrand the franchise as the the Little Rock Scorpions. The change in ownership meant lots of changes on the field. First there is a brand new stadium named the Scorpion Den. The new stadium's facade is modeled after a what was a local treasure for more than 70 years, Ray Winder Field. There is a statue of the great Bill Valentine just outside of the home plate entrance. Local legend is that team owner Mike Renick buried a Jose Cruz game used jock strap under home plate. It is, a modern shrine to baseball's past and present and to the eternally hopeful future.

In addition to a snazzy new logo and stadium the new ownership has vowed to do a better job of keeping the franchise stocked with talent and youth. Evidence of the change in philosophy was clearly demonstrated by the initial flurry of roster moves. Notably, a concerted effort to acquire youth and players who project to earn full-time jobs in the near future. Players on the inherited roster included names like Zoilo Almonte, Brian Bogusevic, Tim Fedorowicz, Jeff Francouer, Freddy Garcia, Jack Hannahan, Jeff Keppinger, Barry Zito and Nate Freiman.

Truly, it was an amazing(ly depressing) collection of backup to the backups, geriatrics, and bad role players. This meant making some hard (and some really easy) decisions about current pieces of the roster. Immediately after acquiring the club, ownership began the roster overhaul. The Scorpions traded Matt Holliday, Hiroki Kuroda, Evan Gattis and Nelson Cruz. (So, yes, offense will be lacking in 2015). The return for these veterans included a collection of picks in the first two rounds of the draft as well as some assets to help carry the team through the rebuild. Heading into draft day, the Scorpions owned two top 10 picks and the first three picks in round two.

Maulers Target Top Arms In Draft

By Mike Johnson

DRAFT REVIEW

Jake deGrom fell to the Maulers at No. 12 overall

First round (#12): Jake deGrom (SP). I expected the top 3 SPs to picked, so I was planning on selecting Betances. If I could not draft a SP, I would enhance my RP. Happy w/ the pick and improved my SP (Bumgarner/deGrom/A.Wood/Weaver/Latos/Hendrick).

Second round (#25): Andrew Miller (RP). I planned on and wanted this guy! It would have been nice to have Betance/Miller. St. Louis RP is solid and deep.

Second round (#32): Kyle Hendricks (SP). This was my last pick until the 5th rd so I needed it to count! The 25 YR old K.Kendrick is solid and his 88 IP fills in for the shortage of IP that deGrom has (154 IP). Thought about Shoemaker with this pick. Kendrick was solid in the minors. My rotation is set!

What A Replacement-Level Team Would Look Like

By Matt Eddy

For the second year in a row, White Sox third baseman Conor Gillaspie went unselected in our league's draft, despite having an abundance of at-bats both years. MMDA managers clearly are not impressed with the lefthanded-hitting Gillaspie's low-watt power (zero ballpark diamonds) and unremarkable fielding (4e16) at the hot corner.

Nobody seems to want Conor Gillaspie in the MMDA

This led me to wonder which other passable cards were passed over on draft day. That led me to wonder how competitive such a collection of draft leftovers might be, so I created a team out of our league's freely-available talent. This is the very definition of replacement level, for an expansion team picking up where the MMDA draft left off in round 12 could have acquired all these players at no cost.

Using the roster evaluator tool at the SOM World site, I plugged in the most logical draft leftovers to populate a 21st roster in the MMDA. Needless to say, this team would not be competitive for anything more than the No. 1 overall draft pick.

In fact, a 21st MMDA team would finish with an estimated 58 wins, according to the roster evaluator. Take a wild guess where the evaluator sets the minimum win total for even the least-talented team? That's right: 58 wins. In other words, even the worst team ought to luck its way into a win about 35 percent of the time.

2015 Draft Supplemental Rounds

Results for the supplemental rounds—this year the eighth through 12th rounds—of the 2015 MMDA draft are as follows. For the first seven rounds—the "regulation" phase—visit the 2015 Draft Results.

Gators ninth-rounder Christian Colon

EIGHTH ROUND
141 Scorpions Josh Tomlin, rhp, Indians
142 Dutchmen Chris Young, rhp, Mariners
143 Breakers Trevor May, rhp, Twins
144 Razorbacks Nick Tepesch, rhp, Rangers
145 Bluejays <no selection>
146 Crows James Russell, lhp, Braves
147 Gators Shawn Kelley, rhp, Yankees
148 Huskies Tyler Lyons, lhp, Cardinals
149 Lions Blake Treinen, rhp, Nationals

NINTH ROUND
150 Scorpions Brandon Workman, rhp, Red Sox
151 Dutchmen Rymer Liriano, of, Padres
152 Breakers Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, Red Sox
153 Razorbacks Matt Stites, rhp, D-backs
154 Crows Chris Hatcher, rhp, Marlins
155 Gators Christian Colon, 2b, Royals
156 Lions Justin Grimm, rhp, Cubs

10TH ROUND
157 Scorpions Trevor Cahill, rhp, D-backs
158 Dutchmen Tucker Barnhart, c, Reds
159 Breakers Colby Lewis, rhp, Rangers
160 Razorbacks Adrian Nieto, c, White Sox
161 Crows Brad Brach, rhp, Orioles
162 Gators Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles
163 Lions Dan Robertson, of, Rangers

11TH ROUND
164 Scorpions Josh Edgin, lhp, Mets
165 Dutchmen Juan Francisco, 1b, Blue Jays
166 Crows Yohan Flande, lhp, Rockies
167 Gators Kevin Pillar, of, Blue Jays
168 Lions Chris Bassitt, rhp, White Sox

12TH ROUND
169 Dutchmen Tsuyoshi Wada, lhp, Cubs
170 Crows Ramon Santiago, ss, Reds
171 Gators Casey Fien, rhp, Twins

Lions Makeover Continues On Draft Day

By Matt Eddy

A hyperactive offseason in Mohawk Valley gave way to a busy draft day as the Lions' extreme makeover continued unabated.

From Motown to Mohawk Valley, J.D. Martinez carries a big stick

The Lions selected seven players in the 2015 draft, then completed a post-draft trade with Spokane to acquire left fielder J.D. Martinez. Current card value was clearly the theme of the day, for the average age of Mohawk Valley's eight draft-day additions is 26 years old. All the maneuvering indicates the club's goals for the coming year: a 10th consecutive winning season and fifth straight trip to the playoffs.

In all, Mohawk Valley will bring to spring training a dozen new faces expected to fill regular or complementary roles.

The Lions kicked their retool into high gear last fall, swinging trades for second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera, left fielder Carl Crawford, first baseman Albert Pujols, No. 5 starter Drew Smyly and center fielder Denard Span. They added role players, such as reliever David Carpenter and platoon second baseman Logan Forsythe, around the margins.

On draft day, Mohawk Valley buttressed a weak bullpen with righthanders Dellin Betances (first round) and Justin Grimm (ninth) and lefty Fernando Abad (fourth), while also picking up outfielders Brandon Guyer (fifth) and Dan Robertson (10th) for weak-side platoon deployment. The club also speculated on power righties Blake Treinen (eighth) and Chris Bassitt (11th) in the late rounds, but they have no defined roles for 2015.