Sunday, October 28, 2018

Elysian Fields Wins 2018 World Series

Here are the Strat game recaps from the 2018 World Series, in which the No. 1 Elysian Fields Dutchmen defeated the No. 2 Mohawk Valley Lions four games to none.

Game One
Dutchmen 5, Lions 4

Zack Greinke @ Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer retired 10 batters on strikeouts at Elysian Fields as the Elysian Fields Flying Dutchmen beat the Mohawk Valley Lions by the count of 5 to 4.

Scherzer (3-2) delivered a fine performance for Elysian Fields. He went 7 innings allowing 6 hits and 3 walks. Mohawk Valley made it exciting in the 9th, but they were unable to push the needed runs across.

Scherzer got help from Roberto Osuna who earned his 3rd save. The loss was charged to Andrew Miller (0-1) in relief.

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Active MMDA Manager Register 2018

A complete statistical record for the MMDA goes back to 1995. That's the line of demarcation I used to create our league's all-time managerial register.

Managers are ranked by Fibonacci win points. This concept was introduced by Bill James in his book Whatever Happened To The Hall Of Fame? It balances teams' win totals with their winning percentage to arrive at one pleasing number.

The formula is simply wins (times) winning percentage (plus) wins (minus) losses. So rather than rank managers by total wins or by winning percentage, I chose to rank them by Fibonacci win points to balance quality (winning percentage) and quantity (career wins).

Note the return of Jeff Olson and subtraction of Mike Johnson in this year's register. Jeff previously managed in the MMDA from 2002 to 2004 and from 2007 to 2012 before returning in 2018 with a playoff team.  

NoManagerWLPctYrsPlayoffHighWHighLFibonacci
1 John Tresca 2221 1667 .571 24 17 120 124 1823
2 Ray Ross 2183 1705 .561 24 20 117 92 1704
3 Steven Tresca 2123 1765 .546 24 18 108 123 1517
4 James Bailey 2047 1841 .526 24 13 105 102 1284
5 Matt Eddy 1420 1334 .516 17 10 113 113 818
6 Steve Frediani 1855 2033 .477 24 9 106 116 707
7 John Lamanna 815 643 .559 9 7 108 85 628
8 Jim Baker 1787 2101 .460 24 2 112 117 507
9 Tim Ednoff 615 519 .542 7 4 99 89 430
10 Jim Derer 611 523 .539 7 3 101 87 417
11 Mike Siddon 1347 1569 .462 18 2 98 103 400
12 George O'Connor 591 543 .521 7 4 103 95 356
13 Jeff Olson 771 849 .476 10 4 109 118 289
14 Clyde Elkins 488 484 .502 6 3 113 102 249
15 Ryan McCabe 620 676 .478 8 2 93 108 241
16 Tom Edwards 468 504 .481 6 1 90 105 189
17 Jim Gruttadauria 532 602 .469 7 1 87 98 180
18 Dave Jones 569 727 .439 8 1 88 106 92
19 Kevin Kasunich 180 306 .370 3 0 65 111 -59
20 Mike Renick 198 450 .306 4 0 62 124 -192

Remember, this data covers the 1995 through 2018 seasons.

James Bailey won his 2,000th game in 2018. Matt Eddy can reach 1,500 by winning at least 80 games in 2019.
 
In the sample period, John Tresca has won the most division titles with 10. Next on the list are Matt Eddy and Ray Ross (seven each), James Bailey (five), John Lamanna (four) and Steve Frediani and Jeff Olson (three each).

Draft Order For 2019

With the 2018 World Series complete, we know the order of selection for the first round of the 2019 draft. The top three picks were determined by a lottery system.

Ties are indicated with an asterisk (*). Explanation of tiebreakers is included at the end.

1. West Side Bluejays
2. Cape Cod Breakers
3. Little Rock Scorpions
4. Sudbury Snappers
5. Spokane Hooded Crows *
6. Lake County Nighthawks *
7. Rochester Pilots
8. Miami Hustlers **
9. Northeast Huskies **
10. Goldenrod Gators
11. California Roadrunners
12. Wilmington Razorbacks
13. Northwest Stars
14. Fighting Irish
15. Brooklyn Dodgers
16. Death Valley Drivers (held by Spokane)
17. Yankee Clippers (held by Northwest)
18. Rosehill Hornets
19. Mohawk Valley Lions (held by Rochester)
20. Elysian Fields Flying Dutchmen (held by West Side)

Note that the draft order will revert to reverse order of finish for the second round and all subsequent rounds. That means the 103-loss Breakers will lead off the second round, followed by the Scorpions (100 losses) and Bluejays (98 losses).

* Teams went 3-3 in head-to-head play. Spokane went 21-51 inside its division, and Lake County went 32-40.

** Northeast went 11-7 against division rival Miami.

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Final Power Ranking For 2018


The final poll for the 2018 season. Teams sorted by wins. Ties broken by run differential.

OPS+ and ERA+ are adjusted for ballpark context.

RD run differential
PF park factor multiplier
BB% does not include intentional walks
SPD speed score
BABIP is a rough estimate of team defensive efficiency

Power Ranking 


No Team WLPCTDivisionR/GOPS+RA/GERA+PFRD
1 Elysian Fields 113 49 .698 Pacific 5.72 1243.44 121 0.932+369
2 Mohawk Valley 102 60 .630 Atlantic 5.16 1104.01 1130.980+186
3 Death Valley 100 62 .617 Atlantic 5.91 1114.27 1161.086+265
4 Brooklyn 97 65 .599 Pacific 5.48 1114.35 108 1.033+183
5 Rosehill 97 65 .599 Central 5.06 1164.41 980.904+105
6 Yankee 90 72 .556 Central 4.82 964.28 1161.077+87
7 Fighting 86 76 .531 Northeast 5.42 1085.04 1011.050+62
8 Northwest 85 77 .525 Pacific 4.54 944.27 1090.974+44
9 Wilmington 82 80 .506 Atlantic 5.21 1065.38 881.025–28
10 California 81 81 .500 Pacific 4.35 1054.33 105 0.917+2
11 Goldenrod 77 85 .475 Central 4.35 884.65 110 1.090–49
12 Northeast 76 86 .469 Northeast 4.17 924.62 940.909–73
13 Miami 76 86 .469 Northeast 4.02 875.06 920.991–168
14 Rochester 74 88 .457 Atlantic 5.01 1085.42 820.979–66
15 Lake County 67 95 .414 Central 4.54 964.86 1011.043–51
16 Spokane 67 95 .414 Pacific 3.49 814.87 850.905–224
17 Sudbury 65 97 .401 Atlantic 4.51 835.22 1031.143–115
18 West Side 64 98 .395 Northeast 4.75 925.55 991.135–130
19 Little Rock 62 100 .383 Central 4.92 975.91 781.031–161
20 Cape Cod 59 103 .364 Northeast 3.57 895.04 790.854–238

2018 Wrap: Award Winners & League Leaders

A recap collecting important—or at least interesting—tidbits from the 2018 season.

Postseason Awards

Here are the MMDA end-of-season award winners, as selected by the Strat-O-Matic game engine. 

MVP
PlayerTeamAB2B3BHRRBIAVGBBSOSBOBPSLG
G.StantonDutchmen63440371169.312891672.404.721
M.ScherzerDutchmenSee Cy Young Voting
A.JudgeHornets56023344111.271441582.422.559
B.DozierDutchmen6573603194.254641416.328.451
J.MartinezLions47332648109.304781381.400.702

Dutchmen right fielder Giancarlo Stanton led the MMDA with 71 home runs, 169 RBIs, 153 runs and a .721 slugging percentage. He placed seventh in the batting race (.312) and ranked seventh with 89 walks and fifth with a .404 on-base percentage.

Stanton's prodigious power display in terms of homers and RBIs rank him among the best in league history since 2002, which is as far back as I have comprehensive records. His 71 homers ranks second only to Barry Bonds, who hit 82 for Rochester in 2002. Bonds also drove in 180 runs that season, which is the highest total on record. Stanton's 169 RBIs this year ranks fifth since 2002.

CY YOUNG
PitcherTeamWLERAGSSVIPHBBSOHRAVGBB9SO9
M.ScherzerDutchmen2052.603102151166627236.1572.811.4
S.StrasburgLions1842.723001951273421222.1821.69.8
J.VerlanderLions2073.683302151897823725.2319.93.3
R.RayDutchmen1433.612701751126521522.1813.311.1
Z.GreinkeLions17103.493102221676322324.2062.69.0

Dutchmen righthander Max Scherzer led the MMDA with 20 wins and a .157 opponent average. He placed second to Miami's Corey Kluber with a 2.60 ERA and third to Kluber and Elysian Fields teammate Chris Sale with 272 strikeouts.

The Lions placed three pitchers among the Cy Young Award finalists and had a fourth starter record 200 strikeouts. Righthander Yu Darvish went 12-11 with a 3.93 ERA and 215 strikeouts in 204 innings.