Top Eight Rotations You Want To Avoid In The Playoffs

By Matt Eddy

How strong is the link between rotation quality and team success in a 20-team Strat league? In the case of the MMDA: pretty strong.

Prior to the 2015 season, I ranked the top eight MMDA rotations in terms of the quality of each club's top four starters—the quartet most likely to appear in a playoff series. As it turned out, four of the top six teams on that ranking advanced to the league semifinals in 2015. The No. 2 Miami Manatees met the No. 3 Northwest Stars in one bracket, while in the other, the No. 4 Mohawk Valley Lions combated the No. 6 Spokane Hooded Crows.

So let's give it another go. Just like last year, I will rank in this space the eight most fearsome rotations in the MMDA, at least according to the on-base and total-base units for the top four starter cards on each team.

The methodology is slightly changed this year. I used the SOM World starting pitcher rankings to remove my subjectivity and personal bias from the exercise. I also weighted the starter cards on a simple 4-3-2-1 scale to reward clubs with top-heavy rotations. After all, a club's top two starters likely will compile the most playoff innings.

Each club's top four starters—again, according to SOM World—are included here, along with their overall rank among starters. An asterisk (*) denotes that a pitcher may come back on short rest in the playoffs.

1. Spokane Hooded Crows (Pacific)
RHP Zack Greinke (2*), LHP Clayton Kershaw (3*), RHP Jesse Hahn (15), LHP Cole Hamels (16*)

Four of the top 20 starters in the 2016 set can be found in the Crows' rotation, so this is the matchup that opposing teams will want to put off as long as possible in the playoffs. Greinke (1.66 ERA) and Kershaw (301 strikeouts) form the best righty-lefty one-two punch in the game, and both of them can pitch on short rest in the playoffs. Gulp.

Applying Ballpark Factors To MMDA Team Statistics

Customizing ballpark factors is one of the most difficult and agonizing decisions managers face each spring. Finding the most harmonious rate for single and home run frequency can add wins to a team's bottom line, but finding that perfect balance of offense and defense requires a deep understanding of player personnel—and also a lot of educated guesswork.

For years, I have endeavored to create ballpark factors for MMDA teams based on the statistical record, but until recently I had been stymied in my effort to find home/road splits. That changed when a fellow Strat obsessive pointed me to the line scores found within the League Stats menu.

With access to all teams' line scores, I summed all the runs a team scored and allowed at home, and then summed the same totals for each team on the road. Once I had those totals I could figure per-game rates by dividing by 81, and then compare those two rates to quantify the extent to which each MMDA park amplified or suppressed run production in a given season.

While I fully intend to apply this park-factor epiphany to the 2015 statistical record, I will do so only at the conclusion of the season, when teams have visited every park on their schedule and playing time has been fully distributed. Also, it takes some time to build the framework, so I only want to perform the calculations once per season.

However, this doesn't preclude me from revisiting the recent past and applying park factors to the 2014 data. From highest to lowest, here are the park factors I calculated for the 2014 season:

No	Team	Home R/G	Road R/G	Park Factor	Multiplier
1	Miami	8.86	7.99	111	1.055
2	Wilmington	9.33	8.68	108	1.038
3	Goldenrod	9.28	8.64	107	1.037
4	Death Valley	9.10	8.49	107	1.036
5	West Side	9.01	8.43	107	1.034
6	Elysian Fields	8.52	8.04	106	1.030
	Northeast	9.46	8.93	106	1.030
8	St. Louis	8.09	7.73	105	1.023
9	Brooklyn	10.17	9.79	104	1.020
10	Columbus	7.86	7.60	103	1.017
11	Rochester	8.42	8.22	102	1.012
12	Fighting Irish	9.05	8.95	101	1.006
13	Lake County	7.99	7.91	101	1.005
14	Jersey	8.51	8.51	100	1.000
15	Cape Cod	9.22	9.59	96	0.981
16	Rosehill	8.01	8.44	95	0.974
17	Mohawk Valley	7.83	8.47	92	0.962
18	California	8.40	9.65	87	0.935
19	Spokane	6.53	7.93	82	0.912
20	Northwest	6.75	8.40	80	0.902

A Crude Ranking Of The Eight Hardest-Hitting Lineups

By Matt Eddy

This piece does not attempt to rank the best collections of position players in the MMDA, because defensive proficiency is not considered. Nor does it single out the best rate performers (always handy for the playoffs) or account for a lineup's strength versus lefthanded starters.

Anthony Rendon's emergence fortifies a Dodgers lineup
that already had Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera

This simply measures the quality (runs created) and quantity (at-bats) of offense produced by each team's projected regulars around the diamond. In other words, we would expect these lineups in a neutral ballpark context and against a standard percentage of righthanded starters to score the most runs over 162 games.

To measure offensive quality, I identified the probable lineup regulars for each team, then ranked those regulars by projected runs created. Because this is a crude measure, I used a Roto-style scoring system, such that teams received points based on where their players ranked among the 20 MMDA regulars.

For example, the No. 1 center fielder, Mike Trout, bestowed one point to the Dodgers. The No. 2 first baseman, Miguel Cabrera, credited Brooklyn with two points, and so on down line. The lowest point total for any player is 20. I then summed those point totals for all nine lineup regulars to arrive at a ranking, and here it is. Remember that lower scores are best.

1. Brooklyn Dodgers (Pacific)
Total: 67.
C—Dioner Navarro (9). 1B—Miguel Cabrera (2). 2B—Neil Walker (5). 3B—Anthony Rendon (2). SS—Jimmy Rollins (11). LF—Rajai Davis (16). CF—Mike Trout (1). RF—Jon Jay (12). DH—Hanley Ramirez (9).

The Dodgers scored more than 100 additional runs than any MMDA team in 2014, and expect them to repeat as the league's top offense this season. Cabrera and Trout continue to rank among the elite players in the, while 2014 first-rounder Rendon has supplanted Ramirez as the club's third banana. Extra RH bats: Trevor Plouffe, Collin Cowgill.

Round One: Mohawk Valley 4, Fighting Irish 0

Game recaps from the Strat-generated box scores. In this Round One matchup, the No. 3 Fighting Irish (93-69) had home-field advantage versus the No. 6 Mohawk Valley Lions (87-75). 

Game One

Lions 8, Irish 1

Stephen Strasburg retired 12 batters on strikeouts and catcher Yan Gomes had 2 base hits and 3 RBI as the Mohawk Valley Lions defeated the Fighting Irish by a score of 8 to 1 at Dublin Downs.

Strasburg (1-0) was virtually untouchable. He didn't allow much, just 4 hits and 5 walks in 9 innings. Mohawk Valley finished with 13 hits in the victory.

Andrew Cashner (0-1) was given the loss.