Applying Ballpark Factors To MMDA Team Statistics

Customizing ballpark factors is one of the most difficult and agonizing decisions managers face each spring. Finding the most harmonious rate for single and home run frequency can add wins to a team's bottom line, but finding that perfect balance of offense and defense requires a deep understanding of player personnel—and also a lot of educated guesswork.

For years, I have endeavored to create ballpark factors for MMDA teams based on the statistical record, but until recently I had been stymied in my effort to find home/road splits. That changed when a fellow Strat obsessive pointed me to the line scores found within the League Stats menu.

With access to all teams' line scores, I summed all the runs a team scored and allowed at home, and then summed the same totals for each team on the road. Once I had those totals I could figure per-game rates by dividing by 81, and then compare those two rates to quantify the extent to which each MMDA park amplified or suppressed run production in a given season.

While I fully intend to apply this park-factor epiphany to the 2015 statistical record, I will do so only at the conclusion of the season, when teams have visited every park on their schedule and playing time has been fully distributed. Also, it takes some time to build the framework, so I only want to perform the calculations once per season.

However, this doesn't preclude me from revisiting the recent past and applying park factors to the 2014 data. From highest to lowest, here are the park factors I calculated for the 2014 season:

No	Team	Home R/G	Road R/G	Park Factor	Multiplier
1	Miami	8.86	7.99	111	1.055
2	Wilmington	9.33	8.68	108	1.038
3	Goldenrod	9.28	8.64	107	1.037
4	Death Valley	9.10	8.49	107	1.036
5	West Side	9.01	8.43	107	1.034
6	Elysian Fields	8.52	8.04	106	1.030
	Northeast	9.46	8.93	106	1.030
8	St. Louis	8.09	7.73	105	1.023
9	Brooklyn	10.17	9.79	104	1.020
10	Columbus	7.86	7.60	103	1.017
11	Rochester	8.42	8.22	102	1.012
12	Fighting Irish	9.05	8.95	101	1.006
13	Lake County	7.99	7.91	101	1.005
14	Jersey	8.51	8.51	100	1.000
15	Cape Cod	9.22	9.59	96	0.981
16	Rosehill	8.01	8.44	95	0.974
17	Mohawk Valley	7.83	8.47	92	0.962
18	California	8.40	9.65	87	0.935
19	Spokane	6.53	7.93	82	0.912
20	Northwest	6.75	8.40	80	0.902

A Crude Ranking Of The Eight Hardest-Hitting Lineups

By Matt Eddy

This piece does not attempt to rank the best collections of position players in the MMDA, because defensive proficiency is not considered. Nor does it single out the best rate performers (always handy for the playoffs) or account for a lineup's strength versus lefthanded starters.

Anthony Rendon's emergence fortifies a Dodgers lineup
that already had Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera

This simply measures the quality (runs created) and quantity (at-bats) of offense produced by each team's projected regulars around the diamond. In other words, we would expect these lineups in a neutral ballpark context and against a standard percentage of righthanded starters to score the most runs over 162 games.

To measure offensive quality, I identified the probable lineup regulars for each team, then ranked those regulars by projected runs created. Because this is a crude measure, I used a Roto-style scoring system, such that teams received points based on where their players ranked among the 20 MMDA regulars.

For example, the No. 1 center fielder, Mike Trout, bestowed one point to the Dodgers. The No. 2 first baseman, Miguel Cabrera, credited Brooklyn with two points, and so on down line. The lowest point total for any player is 20. I then summed those point totals for all nine lineup regulars to arrive at a ranking, and here it is. Remember that lower scores are best.

1. Brooklyn Dodgers (Pacific)
Total: 67.
C—Dioner Navarro (9). 1B—Miguel Cabrera (2). 2B—Neil Walker (5). 3B—Anthony Rendon (2). SS—Jimmy Rollins (11). LF—Rajai Davis (16). CF—Mike Trout (1). RF—Jon Jay (12). DH—Hanley Ramirez (9).

The Dodgers scored more than 100 additional runs than any MMDA team in 2014, and expect them to repeat as the league's top offense this season. Cabrera and Trout continue to rank among the elite players in the, while 2014 first-rounder Rendon has supplanted Ramirez as the club's third banana. Extra RH bats: Trevor Plouffe, Collin Cowgill.

Roadrunners Zero In On Top Bats

By Mike Siddon

RANCHO MIRAGE, Calif.—The California Roadrunners went into the draft as prepared as they could be. Mookie Betts was the player who topped the wish list, but when he went to The Breakers at # 4, Josh Harrison was the apparent pick at # 7 when he was available.

Will Josh Harrison's hustle endear him with California fans?

Harrison will most likely be the starting 2B as Aaron Hill is coming off a down season. Harrison has decent numbers vs. both LHP and RHP and may be the leadoff hitter for California.

California's second pick in the draft and #23 overall was Steve Pearce, a pre-draft favorite to join the Roadrunners. Manager Mike Siddon felt the need to have an extra pick in the second round to secure Pearce and go after a decent starter a few picks later. Pearce will add a decent bat and will likely be penciled in as the cleanup hitter. With Pearce at 1B, Chris Carter will be the full-time DH.

Draft Order For 2014

With the close of the market on Oct. 7, the order of the top 3 picks in our draft next February have been determined. Here's how things came out:

DOW (Manatees, 57-105) - 14936.24
NASDAQ (Roadrunners, 59-103) - 3770.38
S&P 500 (Dutchmen, 60-102) - 1676.12

Per the constitution, we use the last decimal place, putting the teams in order from highest to lowest. So ...

Congratulations to the Roadrunners, who are now on the clock. The rest of the order follows.