Final Power Ranking For 2018

The final poll for the 2018 season. Teams sorted by wins. Ties broken by run differential.

OPS+ and ERA+ are adjusted for ballpark context.

RD run differential
PF park factor multiplier
BB% does not include intentional walks
SPD speed score
BABIP is a rough estimate of team defensive efficiency

Power Ranking 

No	Team	W	L	PCT	Division	R/G	OPS+	RA/G	ERA+	PF	RD
1	Elysian Fields	113	49	.698	Pacific	5.72	124	3.44	121	0.932	+369
2	Mohawk Valley	102	60	.630	Atlantic	5.16	110	4.01	113	0.980	+186
3	Death Valley	100	62	.617	Atlantic	5.91	111	4.27	116	1.086	+265
4	Brooklyn	97	65	.599	Pacific	5.48	111	4.35	108	1.033	+183
5	Rosehill	97	65	.599	Central	5.06	116	4.41	98	0.904	+105
6	Yankee	90	72	.556	Central	4.82	96	4.28	116	1.077	+87
7	Fighting	86	76	.531	Northeast	5.42	108	5.04	101	1.050	+62
8	Northwest	85	77	.525	Pacific	4.54	94	4.27	109	0.974	+44
9	Wilmington	82	80	.506	Atlantic	5.21	106	5.38	88	1.025	–28
10	California	81	81	.500	Pacific	4.35	105	4.33	105	0.917	+2
11	Goldenrod	77	85	.475	Central	4.35	88	4.65	110	1.090	–49
12	Northeast	76	86	.469	Northeast	4.17	92	4.62	94	0.909	–73
13	Miami	76	86	.469	Northeast	4.02	87	5.06	92	0.991	–168
14	Rochester	74	88	.457	Atlantic	5.01	108	5.42	82	0.979	–66
15	Lake County	67	95	.414	Central	4.54	96	4.86	101	1.043	–51
16	Spokane	67	95	.414	Pacific	3.49	81	4.87	85	0.905	–224
17	Sudbury	65	97	.401	Atlantic	4.51	83	5.22	103	1.143	–115
18	West Side	64	98	.395	Northeast	4.75	92	5.55	99	1.135	–130
19	Little Rock	62	100	.383	Central	4.92	97	5.91	78	1.031	–161
20	Cape Cod	59	103	.364	Northeast	3.57	89	5.04	79	0.854	–238

Final Power Ranking For 2017

The final poll for the 2017 season. Teams sorted by wins. Ties broken by run differential.

OPS+ and ERA+ are adjusted for ballpark context.

RD stands for run differential and PF for park factor multiplier. BB% and SO/BB ratio do not include intentional walks.

Power Ranking 

No	Team	W	L	PCT	Division	R/G	OPS+	RA/G	ERA+	PF	RD
1	Northeast	98	64	.605	Northeast	5.20	111	4.75	99	1.046	73
2	Goldenrod	96	66	.593	Central	5.20	108	4.69	100	1.036	84
3	Northwest	95	67	.586	Pacific	5.34	104	4.18	117	1.072	188
4	Brooklyn	94	68	.580	Pacific	4.65	97	4.08	114	1.027	93
5	Elysian Fields	92	70	.568	Pacific	4.83	107	3.93	115	1.009	145
6	Death Valley	92	70	.568	Atlantic	4.46	93	4.08	111	1.027	61
7	Wilmington	91	71	.562	Atlantic	4.93	113	4.10	105	0.977	135
8	Cape Cod	88	74	.543	Northeast	4.31	106	4.27	97	0.925	6
9	Rosehill	86	76	.531	Central	4.08	89	4.19	107	0.999	-17
10	Rochester	82	80	.506	Atlantic	4.92	105	4.47	104	1.033	73
11	Spokane	80	82	.494	Pacific	3.80	84	3.94	108	0.922	-22
12	West Side	80	82	.494	Northeast	4.94	105	5.38	91	1.084	-71
13	Mohawk Valley	79	83	.488	Atlantic	3.68	98	3.94	102	0.886	-42
14	Miami	75	87	.463	Northeast	4.73	108	4.98	90	1.009	-40
15	California	73	89	.451	Pacific	4.45	102	4.64	92	0.936	-31
16	Fighting Irish	68	94	.420	Northeast	4.57	99	5.27	82	0.997	-113
17	St. Louis	67	95	.414	Central	3.58	84	4.09	108	0.989	-82
18	Lake County	67	95	.414	Central	4.24	100	5.20	81	0.957	-155
19	Sudbury	64	98	.395	Atlantic	4.42	93	5.10	93	1.028	-110
20	Little Rock	53	109	.327	Central	4.33	92	5.41	82	1.032	-175

Ballpark-Adjusted Team Statistics For 2016

Note: I updated this file with a corrected calculation for ERA+ (March 18, 2017).

We have a complete record of game-by-game line scores for the 2016 season, and that enables me to compute comprehensive park factors for all teams.

The point of this exercise is to (1) highlight the ways in which various parks affect run scoring, and (2) to create Baseball-Reference-style index metrics, specifically OPS+ and ERA+.

Please see this page to learn more about how the calculations are made. Teams are sorted here in descending order of park factor, where 100 is average.

No	Team	Home R/G	Road R/G	Park Factor	Multiplier
1	Little Rock	9.68	8.43	115	1.074
2	Fighting Irish	9.46	8.27	114	1.072
3	Death Valley	9.99	8.78	114	1.069
4	Rosehill	8.74	7.78	112	1.062
5	St. Louis	7.25	6.57	110	1.052
6	West Side	10.36	9.47	109	1.047
7	Northwest	8.15	7.48	109	1.045
8	Miami	8.48	7.80	109	1.044
9	Brooklyn	8.28	7.73	107	1.036
10	Sudbury	9.16	8.74	105	1.024
11	Lake County	8.63	8.44	102	1.011
12	Northeast	8.53	8.77	97	0.987
13	Wilmingotn	8.59	8.95	96	0.980
14	Rochester	7.59	8.14	93	0.967
15	Elysian Fields	8.79	9.46	93	0.965
	Spokane	6.63	7.12	93	0.965
17	California	7.74	8.48	91	0.956
18	Mohawk Valley	7.77	9.22	84	0.921
19	Cape Cod	7.85	9.88	80	0.898
20	Goldenrod	6.65	8.81	75	0.877

Little Rock played as the most hitter-friendly park in the league with a factor of 115. This means that Scorpions home games featured 15 percent more runs than Scorpions in road games. At the other end of the spectrum, Goldenrod played in a park featuring a factor of 75, meaning that Gators home games saw 25 percent fewer runs than Gators road games.

Ballpark-Adjusted Team Statistics For 2015 Season

At precisely the same point in time that I discovered how to create park factors for MMDA teams last May, the means by which those PF estimates were calculated disappeared. As some of you know, our league's 2015 LZP file did not include line scores after April 30, and those line scores are essential to computing park factors.

With the help of a veteran Strat manager who is not in the MMDA, however, I have recovered 99 percent of the line scores from the 2015 season. This third party performed emergency surgery—technically, he rebuilt the league from game files—that yielded results for 1,605 of 1,620 possible games.

In fact, we recovered all 162 data points for 11 of 20 teams and all but a handful of data points for seven others. One team, the Miami Manatees, had 12 corrupted game files—the club's entire home schedule versus Northeast Division opponents in Block 6—and thus the largest error bars among teams in terms of its park factor.

Note: I can reconstruct the complete puzzle if interested parties can find the scores from Miami's Block 6 home games against Cape Cod, Fighting Irish, Northeast and West Side.

Note 2: We also have three random missing game files, which are:

• April 4: Spokane @ Jersey

• April 17: California @ Jersey

• Sept. 4: Spokane @ Brooklyn

So three months later than I intended, I have prepared park factors for the 2015 season. Please see this page to learn more about how the calculations are made. Teams sorted in descending order of hitter friendliness.

No	Team	Home R/G	Road R/G	Park Factor	Multiplier
1	Death Valley	9.20	7.33	125	1.127
2	Brooklyn	10.16*	8.32	122	1.111
3	West Side	9.81	8.28#	119	1.093
4	Lake County	9.41	8.31	113	1.066
5	Little Rock	9.20	8.20	112	1.061
6	Cape Cod	9.23	8.69#	106	1.031
7	Northwest	8.30	7.96	104	1.021
8	Wilmington	7.80	7.86	99	0.996
9	Rochester	7.53	7.65	98	0.992
10	St. Louis	7.95	8.11	98	0.990
11	Goldenrod	7.58	7.80	97	0.986
	Miami	7.84**	8.06	97	0.986
13	Elysian Fields	7.68	8.10	95	0.974
14	Jersey	7.96^	8.48	94	0.969
15	California	8.09	8.79*	92	0.960
16	Northeast	8.11	8.90#	91	0.956
	Rosehill	7.72	8.47	91	0.956
18	Fighting Irish	8.40	10.03#	84	0.919
19	Spokane	5.62	6.84^	82	0.911
20	Mohawk Valley	6.96	8.48	82	0.910
* Sample includes 80 games (one missing) # Sample includes 78 games (three missing) ** Sample includes 69 games (12 missing) ^ Sample includes 79 games (two missing)

Ballpark Factors & Dimensions For 2012-14 Seasons

Calculated using the methodology spelled out in this piece, here are runs-scored park factors for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 MMDA seasons.

We close with a review of three-year averages for the 17 teams that competed in the MMDA continuously from 2012 to 2014

MMDA Ballparks • 2014

No	Team	Division	SI-L	SI-R	HR-L	HR-R	Factor	Multiplier
1	Miami	Northeast	7	7	9	9	111	1.055
2	Wilmington	Atlantic	8	8	14	8	108	1.038
3	Goldenrod	Central	8	4	16	4	107	1.037
4	Death Valley	Atlantic	12	12	12	12	107	1.036
5	West Side	Northeast	10	10	11	11	107	1.034
6	Elysian Fields	Pacific	7	7	8	8	106	1.030
	Northeast	Northeast	12	6	9	4	106	1.030
8	St. Louis	Central	7	7	7	9	105	1.023
9	Brooklyn	Pacific	12	12	8	12	104	1.020
10	Columbus	Central	2	8	2	7	103	1.017
11	Rochester	Atlantic	10	10	8	8	102	1.012
12	Fighting Irish	Northeast	10	10	5	5	101	1.006
13	Lake County	Central	7	7	9	9	101	1.005
14	Jersey	Atlantic	7	5	2	5	100	1.000
15	Cape Cod	Northeast	4	10	16	2	96	0.981
16	Rosehill	Central	5	5	5	5	95	0.974
17	Mohawk Valley	Atlantic	2	2	6	6	92	0.962
18	California	Pacific	2	2	2	5	87	0.935
19	Spokane	Pacific	5	9	2	2	82	0.912
20	Northwest	Pacific	8	6	7	5	80	0.902

Based on the weighted value for ballpark singles and home runs—and the league's left/right split of 28/72—we would expect Death Valley (107) to finish with the highest park factor and California (87) with the lowest.  They didn't miss by much.

Applying Ballpark Factors To MMDA Team Statistics

Customizing ballpark factors is one of the most difficult and agonizing decisions managers face each spring. Finding the most harmonious rate for single and home run frequency can add wins to a team's bottom line, but finding that perfect balance of offense and defense requires a deep understanding of player personnel—and also a lot of educated guesswork.

For years, I have endeavored to create ballpark factors for MMDA teams based on the statistical record, but until recently I had been stymied in my effort to find home/road splits. That changed when a fellow Strat obsessive pointed me to the line scores found within the League Stats menu.

With access to all teams' line scores, I summed all the runs a team scored and allowed at home, and then summed the same totals for each team on the road. Once I had those totals I could figure per-game rates by dividing by 81, and then compare those two rates to quantify the extent to which each MMDA park amplified or suppressed run production in a given season.

While I fully intend to apply this park-factor epiphany to the 2015 statistical record, I will do so only at the conclusion of the season, when teams have visited every park on their schedule and playing time has been fully distributed. Also, it takes some time to build the framework, so I only want to perform the calculations once per season.

However, this doesn't preclude me from revisiting the recent past and applying park factors to the 2014 data. From highest to lowest, here are the park factors I calculated for the 2014 season:

No	Team	Home R/G	Road R/G	Park Factor	Multiplier
1	Miami	8.86	7.99	111	1.055
2	Wilmington	9.33	8.68	108	1.038
3	Goldenrod	9.28	8.64	107	1.037
4	Death Valley	9.10	8.49	107	1.036
5	West Side	9.01	8.43	107	1.034
6	Elysian Fields	8.52	8.04	106	1.030
	Northeast	9.46	8.93	106	1.030
8	St. Louis	8.09	7.73	105	1.023
9	Brooklyn	10.17	9.79	104	1.020
10	Columbus	7.86	7.60	103	1.017
11	Rochester	8.42	8.22	102	1.012
12	Fighting Irish	9.05	8.95	101	1.006
13	Lake County	7.99	7.91	101	1.005
14	Jersey	8.51	8.51	100	1.000
15	Cape Cod	9.22	9.59	96	0.981
16	Rosehill	8.01	8.44	95	0.974
17	Mohawk Valley	7.83	8.47	92	0.962
18	California	8.40	9.65	87	0.935
19	Spokane	6.53	7.93	82	0.912
20	Northwest	6.75	8.40	80	0.902