Lions Capture Second Straight MMDA Title

The Mohawk Valley Lions roared to a second straight MMDA title with an unlikely sweep of the top-seeded Northwest Stars in the World Series. The Lions overcame early deficits in three of the four games, a feat made possible by a pitching staff (and defense) that allowed just seven runs and a 1.75 ERA in the World Series.

Andrew McCutchen hit .333 with two home runs and
six RBIs in four World Series games

Luck never seemed to leave the Lions' side in the 2015 postseason. They went 5-2 in one-run games, 4-0 in extra-inning games and 7-1 on the road. They lost their first two playoff games at home, when they scored only one run in 18 innings against the Pilots' Jake Arrieta and Carlos Carrasco. Then they played 19 extra innings in six tense games with the Crows in which Spokane outscored Mohawk Valley by one run. The Lions lost the first game of that series at home, too.

Two of Mohawk Valley's biggest stars shined brightly in the World Series, when league MVP Andrew McCutchen and league Cy Young Award winner David Price stepped up their games. McCutchen hit .333 (5-for-15) with two home runs, a double, three walks, four runs and six RBIs. He drove in the game-winning runs in Games One and Four. Price picked up the win in the title-clinching Game Four, and in his two starts logged a 1.74 ERA with 12 strikeouts, three walks and nine hits allowed in 10 1/3 innings.

Brief capsules of each World Series game follow.

World Series: Mohawk Valley 4, Northwest 0

Game recaps from the Strat-generated box scores. In this World Series matchup, the No. 1 Northwest Stars (117-45) had home-field advantage versus the No. 2 Mohawk Valley Lions (113-49).

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Game One
Lions 3, Stars 2

Starters: David Price @ Doug Fister

Mohawk Valley brought 2 runs across the plate in the 5th inning when they had 3 base hits. The key at-bat was by Andrew McCutchen who quieted the crowd when he clubbed a two-run home run.  Northwest made it exciting in the 9th, but they were unable to push the needed runs across.

The win went to Fernando Abad (2-0), who allowed no runs in 1 2/3 innings. Abad was helped out by Joe Smith, who recorded his 4th save. Doug Fister (0-2) was the losing pitcher. 

Round Two: Northwest 4, Miami 3

Game recaps from the Strat-generated box scores. In this Round Two matchup, the No. 1 Northwest Stars (117-45) had home-field advantage versus the No. 5 Miami Manatees (90-72).

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Game One
Stars 6, Manatees 3

Starters: Corey Kluber @ Scott Kazmir

First baseman Justin Morneau had 2 base hits at Star Dome as the Northwest Stars beat the Miami Manatees by the count of 6 to 3.

Northwest claimed the early lead in the first inning when they came up with 3 runs on 3 hits. The highlight belonged to Adam Jones who came through for the home fans when he clubbed a three-run home run. Northwest and Miami each finished the night with 8 hits.

Scott Kazmir (1-0) got credit for the victory, pitching 8 innings and allowing 3 runs. Kazmir got help from Craig Kimbrel who earned his 2nd save. Corey Kluber (2-1) took the loss. He surrendered 7 hits and 6 walks in 6 innings.

Round One: Northwest 4, Brooklyn 3

Game recaps from the Strat-generated box scores. In this Round One matchup, the No. 1 Northwest Stars (117-45) had home-field advantage versus the No. 8 Brooklyn Dodgers (85-77).

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Game One
Stars 6, Dodgers 3

Starters: Danny Duffy @ Jordan Zimmermann

The Northwest Stars bested the Brooklyn Dodgers by a 6 to 3 score at Star Dome.

Jordan Zimmermann (1-0) had a fairly solid outing. He surrendered 7 hits and 1 walk in 5 innings. Brooklyn had 12 hits in the game while Northwest had 6, but Northwest had the more timely hits. 

Zimmermann got help from Craig Kimbrel who was credited with his 1st save. Danny Duffy (0-1) was the losing pitcher. He allowed Northwest 6 runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.

Applying Ballpark Factors To MMDA Team Statistics

Customizing ballpark factors is one of the most difficult and agonizing decisions managers face each spring. Finding the most harmonious rate for single and home run frequency can add wins to a team's bottom line, but finding that perfect balance of offense and defense requires a deep understanding of player personnel—and also a lot of educated guesswork.

For years, I have endeavored to create ballpark factors for MMDA teams based on the statistical record, but until recently I had been stymied in my effort to find home/road splits. That changed when a fellow Strat obsessive pointed me to the line scores found within the League Stats menu.

With access to all teams' line scores, I summed all the runs a team scored and allowed at home, and then summed the same totals for each team on the road. Once I had those totals I could figure per-game rates by dividing by 81, and then compare those two rates to quantify the extent to which each MMDA park amplified or suppressed run production in a given season.

While I fully intend to apply this park-factor epiphany to the 2015 statistical record, I will do so only at the conclusion of the season, when teams have visited every park on their schedule and playing time has been fully distributed. Also, it takes some time to build the framework, so I only want to perform the calculations once per season.

However, this doesn't preclude me from revisiting the recent past and applying park factors to the 2014 data. From highest to lowest, here are the park factors I calculated for the 2014 season:

No	Team	Home R/G	Road R/G	Park Factor	Multiplier
1	Miami	8.86	7.99	111	1.055
2	Wilmington	9.33	8.68	108	1.038
3	Goldenrod	9.28	8.64	107	1.037
4	Death Valley	9.10	8.49	107	1.036
5	West Side	9.01	8.43	107	1.034
6	Elysian Fields	8.52	8.04	106	1.030
	Northeast	9.46	8.93	106	1.030
8	St. Louis	8.09	7.73	105	1.023
9	Brooklyn	10.17	9.79	104	1.020
10	Columbus	7.86	7.60	103	1.017
11	Rochester	8.42	8.22	102	1.012
12	Fighting Irish	9.05	8.95	101	1.006
13	Lake County	7.99	7.91	101	1.005
14	Jersey	8.51	8.51	100	1.000
15	Cape Cod	9.22	9.59	96	0.981
16	Rosehill	8.01	8.44	95	0.974
17	Mohawk Valley	7.83	8.47	92	0.962
18	California	8.40	9.65	87	0.935
19	Spokane	6.53	7.93	82	0.912
20	Northwest	6.75	8.40	80	0.902

Top Eight Rotations You Want To Avoid In The Playoffs

By Matt Eddy

Nothing makes a manager's heart sink quite like the prospect of facing an opponent's stacked rotation in a short playoff series. The defense controls the ball in baseball, and the starter is the defense's most vital component.

The addition of Carlos Carrasco put the
Pilots rotation over the top

What follows are the eight most fearsome rotations in the MMDA, at least according to the on-base and total-base units on top four starter cards for each team. To arrive at this ranking, I took all starters with at least 125 innings (a group that numbered 120 pitchers), because 125 innings distills down to 13 innings in a playoff series, which is more than enough to cover two starts in seven games. Using my valuation formula, I then determined which teams could throw the four most-effective starters out there in a short series.

Drawbacks to this method: (1) strikeout chances are not considered, which is too bad because the strikeout is the ultimate neutralizing weapon; (2) some teams will rely on just three starters with an asterisk rating to see them through a seven-game series; and (3) a poor offense and/or low innings totals and/or poor No. 5 starters will almost certainly prevent some of the following teams from actually qualifying for the playoffs. Each pitcher's overall rank (by my formula) is listed in parentheses; an asterisk denotes a starter who can go on short rest in the playoffs.

Note that the Pilots (RHP Drew Hutchison), Stars (RHP Rick Porcello) and Lions (LHP Drew Smyly) had a fifth starter rank in the upper half of qualified starters, but those pitchers are not considered in the following exercise.

1. Rochester Pilots (Atlantic)
RHP Carlos Carrasco (2), RHP Jake Arrieta (4), LHP Jon Lester (12*), RHP Matt Garza (33)

The Pilots selected Carrasco 13th overall in this year's draft, about a year after they struck gold with a late-2013 trade with the Irish in which they dealt a fifth-round pick for Arrieta. Now, Rochester can turn to two of the top four starter cards up to four times in a playoff series.

Round One: Goldenrod 4, Northwest 3

In this Round One matchup, the No. 4 Goldenrod Gators (91-71) had home-field advantage versus the No. 5 Northwest Stars (88-74).

Game One
Gators 8, Stars 1

Cliff Lee had an impressive outing at Gator Grounds where the Goldenrod Gators beat the Northwest Stars 8 to 1.

Goldenrod took the lead for good in the 2nd inning when they scored 2 runs on 2 hits. That was all Lee(1-0) needed. Goldenrod finished with 12 hits while Northwest ended up with 4.

Doug Fister (0-1) was the loser. He surrendered 3 homeruns in his 5 innings.

Huskies Capture MMDA Championship

Congratulations to the Northeast Huskies, who capped a six-year run of regular-season domination with a championship, topping the Northwest Stars in seven games to capture the MMDA World Series.

Huskies DH David Oritz blasted the World Series-winning
home run in the 17th inning of Game Seven

John Tresca's club led the league with 115 wins during the regular season, landing in a familiar place: atop the Northeast Division (named for its geographic location, though it could just as well be in honor of its dominant team). That marked six consecutive seasons in which the Huskies have either won the division outright or tied for first.

Since bringing up the rear with a 54-108 record in 2007, the Huskies have gone 659-313, good for a .678 winning percentage. During that span they posted the best record in the league three times (2009, 2012, 2013). For all that dominance, however, there is one thing that eluded them: a title.

In five years the Huskies have advanced to the final series only once, falling to the Bulldogs in seven games in 2009. But this year they rolled through, topping the West Side Bluejays in five games in the first round of the playoffs, then withstanding the defending champion Goldenrod Gators in six games in the semi-finals.

The Stars, however, took the Huskies to the brink with a seven-game challenge. The final game was an epic affair in which the home club won in the 17th inning on a two-run shot by DH David Ortiz.

World Series: Northeast 4, Northwest 3

Game recaps from the Strat-generated box scores. In the World Series, the No. 1 Northeast Huskies (115-47) had home-field advantage versus the No. 7 Northwest Stars (90-72). 

Game One 
Stars 6, Huskies 5

First baseman Carlos Santana had 2 base hits as the Northwest Stars topped the Northeast Huskies by a score of 6 to 5 at Huskie Park.

Northwest took the lead off Adam Wainwright in the first inning scoring one runner. After two outs Jason Heyward single-handedly provided the offense with a solo home run. Adam Jones was next to bat, but he was a strikeout victim.  Northeast made it exciting in the 9th, but they were unable to push the needed runs across. 

Madison Bumgarner (3-0) allowed 2 runs in 5 innings, and picked up the victory. Rafael Soriano earned the save, his 1st. Wainwright (2-1) was charged with the loss. He pitched 7 1/3 innings allowing 5 hits and 3 walks.

Round Two: Northwest 4, Mohawk Valley 3

Game recaps from the Strat-generated box scores. In this series, the No. 3 Mohawk Valley Crimson Lions (98-64) had home-field advantage versus the No. 7 Northwest Stars (90-72).

Game One
Stars 3, Lions 1

Doug Fister (2-1) and David Price (1-2) treated the Mohawk Valley fans to a fine pitching duel at Van Slyke Field. The Northwest Stars eventually emerged as victors over the Mohawk Valley Crimson Lions by the score of 3 to 1.

Fister looked very much in control throughout the night. He allowed only 4 hits and 3 walks in 7 2/3 innings seeing his ERA drop from 4.70 to 3.52 for the playoffs. Craig Kimbrel earned the save with a perfect ninth, his 4th save.

Round One: Northwest 4, Wilmington 3

Game recaps from the Strat-generated box scores. In this series, the No. 2 Wilmington Razorbacks (112-50) had home-field advantage versus the No. 7 Northwest Stars (90-72).

Game One
Stars 4, Razorbacks 2

Right fielder Jason Heyward had 2 base hits and 2 RBI at The Razordome as the Northwest Stars beat the Wilmington Razorbacks 4 to 2.

Northwest took the lead for good in the top of the 5th inning plating an isolated run using 2 hits. Northwest and Wilmington each finished the night with 9 hits. 

Doug Fister (1-0) allowed 2 runs in 7 1/3 innings, and picked up the victory. Craig Kimbrel was credited with his 1st save. The losing pitcher was Felix Hernandez (0-1).

Huskies dominate regular season once again, but can they get it done in October?

The Northeast Huskies have done it again. John Tresca's club led the league with 115 wins during the regular season, landing in a familiar place: atop the Northeast Division (named for its geographic location, though it could just as well be in honor of its dominant team). This marks six consecutive seasons in which the Huskies have either won the division outright or tied for first.

Since bringing up the rear with a 54-108 record in 2007, the Huskies have gone 659-313, good for a .678 winning percentage. During that span they have posted the best record in the league three times (2009, 2012, 2013). For all that dominance, however, there is one thing that has eluded them: a title. Over the past five years the Huskies have advanced to the final series only once, falling to the Bulldogs in seven games in 2009.

Can they do it this year? Their road to the World Series runs first through division rival West Side Bluejays, who are making their first-ever appearance in the MMDA postseason. Vegas likes the Huskies here. Northeast led the MMDA with a 3.28 ERA and ranked third in runs scored with 891. By contrast, the Bluejays posted a 3.97 ERA (9th) and crossed the plate 784 times (6th). But as the Huskies have learned, these games aren't played on paper.

Jim Baker's Wilmington Razorbacks finished with the second-best record in the league, at 112-50, ending a postseason drought reminiscent of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Razorbacks were led by a stout offense that gets on base and scores lots of runs. They posted a .359 on-base percentage as a team, nineteen points better than the second-best club (Huskies), and scored a league-best 928 runs. Their pitching staff logged a 3.92 ERA, eighth best in the league.

The Razors will be going up against a playoff fixture, the Northwest Stars, who secured the No. 7 seed after losing the tie-breaker with division foe Spokane. The Stars are a balanced club that finished fourth in the league in ERA (3.63) and seventh in runs scored (769).

Spokane, the sixth seed, will face the third-seeded Mohawk Valley Crimson Lions, whose potent offense ranked fourth in runs (839) and pitching staff finished third with a 3.55 ERA. The Hooded Crows are a pitching oriented club. Led by ERA champion Clayton Kershaw (2.08), they finished second in the MMDA with a 3.35 ERA. Kershaw and his fellow rotation mates will have to shine, however, because Spokane's offense ranked just 15th in runs scored, with 679, the least of any playoff qualifier.

The final matchup features divisional foes Goldenrod and St. Louis. They met in the second round of last year's playoffs, with the Gators sweeping the Maulers on the way to capturing the league championship. The Gators, who won two more games in the regular season this year to take the division title, have the edge in both ERA (3.82 to 3.91) and runs scored (796 to 720).

Best of luck to all eight clubs and congratulations on advancing this far.