Monday, February 16, 2015

A Crude Ranking Of The Eight Hardest-Hitting Lineups

By Matt Eddy

This piece does not attempt to rank the best collections of position players in the MMDA, because defensive proficiency is not considered. Nor does it single out the best rate performers (always handy for the playoffs) or account for a lineup's strength versus lefthanded starters.

Anthony Rendon's emergence fortifies a Dodgers lineup
that already had Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera
This simply measures the quality (runs created) and quantity (at-bats) of offense produced by each team's projected regulars around the diamond. In other words, we would expect these lineups in a neutral ballpark context and against a standard percentage of righthanded starters to score the most runs over 162 games.

To measure offensive quality, I identified the probable lineup regulars for each team, then ranked those regulars by projected runs created. Because this is a crude measure, I used a Roto-style scoring system, such that teams received points based on where their players ranked among the 20 MMDA regulars.

For example, the No. 1 center fielder, Mike Trout, bestowed one point to the Dodgers. The No. 2 first baseman, Miguel Cabrera, credited Brooklyn with two points, and so on down line. The lowest point total for any player is 20. I then summed those point totals for all nine lineup regulars to arrive at a ranking, and here it is. Remember that lower scores are best.

1. Brooklyn Dodgers (Pacific)
Total: 67.
C—Dioner Navarro (9). 1B—Miguel Cabrera (2). 2B—Neil Walker (5). 3B—Anthony Rendon (2). SS—Jimmy Rollins (11). LF—Rajai Davis (16). CF—Mike Trout (1). RF—Jon Jay (12). DH—Hanley Ramirez (9).

The Dodgers scored more than 100 additional runs than any MMDA team in 2014, and expect them to repeat as the league's top offense this season. Cabrera and Trout continue to rank among the elite players in the, while 2014 first-rounder Rendon has supplanted Ramirez as the club's third banana. Extra RH bats: Trevor Plouffe, Collin Cowgill.

2. St. Louis Maulers (Central)
Total: 69.
C—Robinson Chirinos (19). 1B—Justin Morneau (6). 2B—Ian Kinsler (6). 3B—Pablo Sandoval (5). SS—Alcides Escobar (6). LF—Corey Dickerson (2). CF—Lorenzo Cain (10). RF—Hunter Pence (7). DH—Torii Hunter (8). 

The busy Maulers added Cain and Hunter via offseason trades, and they drafted Chirinos in the fifth round this year to round out the lineup. Extra RH bats: Mike Napoli, Jeff Baker.

3. California Roadrunners (Pacific)
Total: 74.
C—Carlos Ruiz (15). 1B—Steve Pearce (13). 2B—Josh Harrison (3). 3B—Josh Donaldson (4). SS—Jhonny Peralta (2). LF—Seth Smith (13). CF—Ben Revere (8). RF—Yasiel Puig (4). DH—Chris Carter (12).

Drafting Harrison and Pearce this year fleshed out the Roadrunners' lineup, giving them a top-15 player at each position. Leonys Martin will make for a fine fourth outfielder. Extra RH bats: Chris Johnson, Khris Davis.

4. Rochester Pilots (Atlantic)
Total: 76.
C—Devin Mesoraco (3). 1B—Matt Adams (11). 2B—Chase Utley (8). 3B—Adrian Beltre (1). SS—J.J. Hardy (14). LF—Christian Yelich (6). CF—Kevin Kiermaier (15). RF—Kole Calhoun (11). DH—Todd Frazier (7).

Even after trading Jay Bruce and Miguel Montero, the Pilots still have too many quality position players. For example, Daniel Murphy is relegated to pinch-hitter for this team, and Josh Hamilton might not even make a playoff roster. Extra RH bats: Desmond Jennings, Mike McKenry, Kris Negron.

5. Fighting Irish (Northeast)
Total: 78.
C—Wilin Rosario (13). 1B—Paul Goldschmidt (7). 2B—Howie Kendrick (4). 3B—Cody Asche (18). SS—Starlin Castro (3). LF—Gerardo Parra (20). CF—Dexter Fowler (11). RF—Giancarlo Stanton (1). DH—Victor Martinez (1).

The Irish also have two other productive bats versus righthanded starters: Scooter Gennett and Daniel Nava, both of whom could start at second base and left field in a playoff series. Extra RH bat: Delmon Young.

6. Mohawk Valley Lions (Atlantic)
Total: 79.
C—Yan Gomes (5). 1B—Albert Pujols (9). 2B—Asdrubal Cabrera (13). 3B—Chase Headley (16). SS—Erick Aybar (8). LF—Carl Crawford (17). CF—Denard Span (4). RF—Andrew McCutchen (3). DH—J.D. Martinez (4).

Martinez also could play left field to allow Jason Kipnis to step in as DH. Extra RH bats: Brandon Guyer, Dan Robertson.

7. Miami Manatees (Northeast)
Total: 80.
C—Evan Gattis (6). 1B—Lucas Duda (8). 2B—Brandon Phillips (14). 3B—David Freese (13). SS—Ian Desmond (5). LF—Starling Marte (5). CF—Marcell Ozuna (7). RF—Wil Myers (20). DH—Nelson Cruz (2).

Alternate configuration: Cruz can play right field to get Rickie Weeks into the lineup at DH. Extra RH bats: Weeks, Matt Dominguez.

8. Northeast Huskies (Northeast)
Total: 82.
C—Salvador Perez (8). 1B—Ike Davis (19). 2B—Robinson Cano (2). 3B—Evan Longoria (9). SS—Jose Reyes (4). LF—Chris Coghlan (14). CF—Coco Crips (17). RF—Justin Upton (6). DH—David Ortiz (3).

The Huskies also could play Ortiz at first base to open up the DH slot for Luis Valbuena, which obviously would fortify the lineup at the expense of some defensive efficiency. Extra RH bats: Josh Willingham, Justin Ruggiano.

ADDENDUM

The above exercise takes a weighted position-ranking approach to estimating offensive output. Running the numbers again to calculate the cumulative runs created by the primary nine position players for each team yields the same results—except that the West Side Bluejays move into the bottom of the standings, displacing the Manatees.

West Side Bluejays (Northeast)
Total: 94.
C—John Jaso (16). 1B—Adam LaRoche (10). 2B—Ben Zobrist (10). 3B—Yangervis Solarte (15). SS—Brock Holt (15). LF—Marlon Byrd (9). CF—Josh Reddick (12). RF—Jose Bautista (2). DH—Edwin Encarnacion (5).

A busy offseason has buttressed the Bluejays' lineup around anchors Bautista and Encarnacion. They traded for Jaso, LaRoche and Zobrist, while drafting Holt and Solarte this year to fill holes on the infield. Extra RH bats: Michael Cuddyer, Craig Gentry.

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