We can make only educated guesses as to how the young players in this year's MMDA draft will fare in the major leagues, but we know exactly how the veterans ought to perform during the 2015 season. It's right there on their Strat cards.
So with the help of the SOM World value-estimation tools, I decided to rank all 20 drafts in terms of total runs above average (RAA) projected for 2015. These RAA values assume that managers will use each card to the very last at-bat or inning, so in other words, it's the roughest of estimates. However, it does indicate pretty well which teams are going for it this year.
Also presented here are total picks (with first pick in parentheses), the rate of RAA per pick, the best card (purely in terms of RAA) and a listing of Baseball America Top 10 Prospects drafted by each club.
 |
| The Roadrunners traded up to select Steve Pearce at No. 23. That move put them over the top in terms of draft-day value. |
(122 RAA)
Total Picks: 7 (#7)
RAA Per Pick: 17.4
Best Card: 3B Josh Harrison (34 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
The Roadrunners held two picks among the top 25 and landed two of the heaviest hitters available—and both 3B Josh Harrison and 1B/LF Steve Pearce offer positional flexibility.
2. Spokane Hooded Crows
(107 RAA)
Total Picks: 12 (#2)
RAA Per Pick: 8.9
Best Card: LF J.D. Martinez (42 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: CF Joc Pederson (Dodgers), 3B Garin Cecchini (Red Sox)
The Crows traded their own first- and second-round picks to acquire the No. 2 overall selection, which they used to take Pederson, but they emphasized card value elsewhere by taking players like LF J.D. Martinez, RHP Jesse Hahn and LHP Tony Sipp.
3. Rosehill Hornets (105 RAA)
Total Picks: 10 (#8)
RAA Per Pick: 10.5
Best Card: 3B Casey McGehee (20 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
The Hornets targeted card value all the way down the line, leading things off with a succession of picks including RHP Masahiro Tanaka, 2B Dee Gordon and RHP Ken Giles in the first two rounds.
4. Jersey Blackhawks (102 RAA)
Total Picks: 8 (#6)
RAA Per Pick: 12.7
Best Card: RHP Colin McHugh (26 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
The Blackhawks snagged SS Danny Santana with the sixth overall pick, then raked in surplus value as quality cards like RHP Collin McHugh dropped to No. 26 and RF David Peralta fell to No. 46.
5. Elysian Fields Dutchmen (100 RAA)
Total Picks: 13 (#1)
RAA Per Pick: 7.7
Best Card: 1B Jose Abreu (57 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: C Andrew Susac (Giants), CF Michael Taylor (Nationals), 3B Ryan Rua (Rangers), RF Rymer Liriano (Padres)
Perhaps the year's most diverse draft belongs to the Dutchmen, who added thumpers 1B Jose Abreu and LF Mike Morse and speedster CF Ender Inciarte in addition to the four top 10 prospects you see listed above.
6. Rochester Pilots (97 RAA)
Total Picks: 6 (#13)
RAA Per Pick: 16.1
Best Card: RHP Carlos Carrasco (31 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
Only the Roadrunners acquired more projected value per pick than the Pilots, who fortified their playoff roster with big adds like RHP Carlos Carrasco, RHP Pat Neshek and C Mike McKenry.
7. Northeast Huskies (86 RAA)
Total Picks: 10 (#19)
RAA Per Pick: 8.6
Best Card: LF Chris Coghlan (22 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: CF Rusney Castillo (Red Sox), LHP Marco Gonzales (Cardinals), RHP Alex Colome (Rays)
Another balanced draft that looks both forward and to the present, the Huskies' effort yielded productive players such as RHP Matt Shoemaker, LF Chris Coghlan and 3B Luis Valbuena to go with upside prospects.
8. West Side Bluejays (85 RAA)
Total Picks: 10 (#11)
RAA Per Pick: 8.5
Best Card: RHP Dan Otero (16 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
The Bluejays really improved themselves on the infield—with UT Brock Holt and 3B Yangervis Solarte—and the bullpen—with RHP Dan Otero, RHP Jared Hughes and RHP Zach Putnam.
9. Mohawk Valley Lions (67 RAA)
Total Picks: 7 (#20)
RAA Per Pick: 9.6
Best Card: RHP Dellin Betances (27 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: RHP Chris Bassitt (Athletics)
The Lions addressed deficiencies in the bullpen with RHP Dellin Betances and LHP Fernando Abad, while also picking up weak-side platoon OF Brandon Guyer.
10. Goldenrod Gators (66 RAA)
Total Picks: 13 (#17)
RAA Per Pick: 5.1
Best Card: LHP Dallas Keuchel (21 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: RHP Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays), 2B Dilson Herrera (Mets), SS Luis Sardinas (Brewers), 2B Christian Colon (Royals)
The Gators appeared to emphasize prospects to a degree unseen in their time in the MMDA, though cards like LHP Dallas Keuchel, 2B Jonathan Schoop and RHP Jeurys Familia are eminently playable in 2015.
11. St. Louis Maulers (64 RAA)
Total Picks: 6 (#12)
RAA Per Pick: 10.6
Best Card: LHP Andrew Miller (20 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
The Maulers prioritized the top arms on their draft board and came away with RHP Jake deGrom, LHP Andrew Miller and RHP Kyle Hendricks with their top three picks.
12. Northwest Stars (62 RAA)
Total Picks: 6 (#5)
RAA Per Pick: 10.3
Best Card: RHP Marcus Stroman (16 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
The stars landed two of the brighter prospects in the first round in RF Jorge Soler and RHP Marcus Stroman before adding value in subsequent rounds with the likes of RHP Mike Fiers and RHP Kevin Quackenbush.
13. Wilmington Razorbacks (37 RAA)
Total Picks: 9 (#9)
RAA Per Pick: 4.1
Best Card: RHP Kevin Jepsen (14 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
The Razorbacks added power/speed RF George Springer in the first round, then doubled back for middle infielders Chris Taylor and Jose Ramirez in rounds two and three.
14. Death Valley Drivers (31 RAA)
Total Picks: 9 (#34)
RAA Per Pick: 3.5
Best Card: 2B Joe Panik (10 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: RHP Anthony DeSclafani (Reds), LHP Brandon Finnegan (Royals), RF Randal Grichuk (Cardinals)
The Drivers plucked 2B Joe Panik and 2B/OF Arismendy Alcantara in second round, then speculated on young players like 1B Kennys Vargas, RHP Anthony DeSclafani and LHP Brandon Finnegan, selecting all of them at lower-than-expected draft position.
15. Lake County Nighthawks (29 RAA)
Total Picks: 7 (#41)
RAA Per Pick: 4.2
Best Card: SS Eduardo Escobar (15 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
Not picking until the third round limited the Nighthawks' access to top-end talent, so they plugged holes with the likes of SS Eduardo Escobar and RHP Aaron Harang.
16. Brooklyn Dodgers (22 RAA)
Total Picks: 5 (#38)
RAA Per Pick: 4.3
Best Card: RHP Brad Boxberger (13 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
With no holes to fill, the Dodgers took a best-player-available approach and landed RHP Brad Boxberger, 1B Jon Singleton and LHP Roenis Elias.
17. Miami Manatees (10 RAA)
Total Picks: 3 (#30)
RAA Per Pick: 3.2
Best Card: RHP Neil Ramirez (10 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: C Christian Bethancourt (Braves), 2B Cory Spangenberg (Padres)
The Manatees used their scant three picks to speculate on upside players RHP Neil Ramirez, C Christian Bethancourt and 2B/OF Cory Spangenberg.
18. Fighting Irish (7 RAA)
Total Picks: 6 (#16)
RAA Per Pick: 1.1
Best Card: LHP Jeremy Affeldt (9 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: None
The Fighting Irish struck for talented young players in the first two rounds—2B Javier Baez and RHP Trevor Bauer—before filling out the bullpen with LHPs Jeremy Affeldt, Marc Rzepczynski and Tyler Matzek.
19. Little Rock Scorpions (-1 RAA)
Total Picks: 12 (#3)
RAA Per Pick: -0.1
Best Card: LHP Josh Edgin (8 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: CF Dalton Pompey (Blue Jays), 3B Jake Lamb (D-backs), LHP Andrew Heaney (Angels)
The rebuilding Scorpions scored talented 2014 MLB debuts RF Gregory Polanco and 2B Rougned Odor in round one, and emphasized potential future value until the bitter end, selecting C Christian Vazquez, CF Dalton Pompey, 3B Jake Lamb, LHP Andrew Heaney and RHP Jimmy Nelson.
20. Cape Cod Breakers (-17 RAA)
Total Picks: 11 (#4)
RAA Per Pick: -1.5
Best Card: 2B Mookie Betts (11 RAA)
Top 10 Prospects: 3B Maikel Franco (Phillies), C J.T. Realmuto (Marlins), 2B Jace Peterson (Braves), RHP Rafael Montero (Mets), RHP Trevor May (Twins)
In Year Two of their rebuild, the Breakers scored perhaps the most talented player in this draft, 2B/OF Mookie Betts, while also scoring intriguing prospects like 3B Maikel Franco and C J.T. Realmuto.
No comments:
Post a Comment