Speed never goes into a slump, or so the baseball aphorism posits. The same can be said for defense in Strat-O-Matic baseball, provided that the defender has low enough range and error ratings to convert a high percentage of X-Rolls.
Due to the nature of X-Roll probabilities around the diamond, defenders at certain positions are more consequential than others. Seasoned baseball fans implicitly understand the concept of the defensive spectrum and position value. In SOM terms, the X-Roll probabilities are distributed along these lines:
X-Rolls Per 216 Plate Appearances (108 Rolls Off Hitter Card)
63 | Shortstop
54 | Second Base
27 | Center Field, Third Base
18 | Left Field, Right Field, First Base, Pitcher
The table above illustrates why second base is referred to as the keystone, because the two infielders stationed near the second-base bag are the cornerstones of team defense. Shortstops (.29) and second basemen (.25) process more X-Rolls per plate appearance in the SOM game than (non-catcher) defenders at any other position.
Let's extrapolate the X-Roll chances above to a full season of play to gauge the cumulative effect of position and defensive efficiency. In this case, a full season equals 648 plate appearances, which is the equivalent of 108 PAs times six months.
X-Rolls Per 648 Plate Appearances (324 Rolls Off Hitter Card)
189 | Shortstop
162 | Second Base
81 | Center Field, Third Base
54 | Left Field, Right Field, First Base, Pitcher
Shortstops are subject to an average of 189 X-Rolls over the course of 162 games, a total that is three and a half times greater than corner outfielders or first basemen. Second basemen handle, on average, one X-Roll per game, and their 162-game total is three times as great as corner outfielders or first basemen, and twice as great as center fielders or third basemen.
With the importance of middle-infield defense established, let's take a closer look at the standout defensive performers in the MMDA at the up-the-middle positions of shortstop, second base and center field.
Shortstop
According to research presented by Dean Carrano in Offense vs. Defense in Strat-O-Matic, a defender's range and error ratings can be mapped to runs saved (or allowed) above average, presumably per 216 plate appearances. That's the assumption I worked with when I scaled those defensive runs to at-bat totals for individual MMDA middle infielders and center fielders.Taking things one step farther, I converted those runs saved (or allowed) into wins by dividing by eight, which is the approximate exchange rate for the MMDA. Actually, in 2015 the rate of runs per win was 8.23, which I figured by simply dividing 13,334 runs by 1,620 wins. This is not the technically correct way to compute runs per win, but it's close enough to work for this purposes.
Shortstops handle about 26 percent of all non-catcher X-Rolls in Strat. Therefore, a particularly good or bad defender at the position can impact a club's win total. For example, Andrelton Simmons of the Dutchmen has the best range rating among shortstops in this year's set: a 1e8. That 1e8 will save Elysian Fields about 6.1 runs per 216 plate appearances, according to Carrano's research. Simmons has about 560 PAs on his card (factoring walk units), meaning that if he maxes out his playing time, he will save the Dutchmen a total of about 15.8 runs, which when divided by eight equals about two wins.
That is how win estimates are determined for all players in this exercise. If a player rates very high or very low, it's the product of (1) a range/error rating that places the player at one extreme end of the spectrum and/or (2) an abundance of playing time.
Some of the win projections appear high to me, and they might appear exaggerated to you, too, so keep in mind that this win estimation does not take into account the quality of the defender's pitching staff. Specifically, it does not factor the strikeout rate of the pitching staff and thus does not control for ball-in-play opportunity.
| No | Top 10 | Team | AB | Range | Error | Wins |
| 1 | Andrelton Simmons | Dutchmen | 535 | 1 | 8 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Alcides Escobar | Maulers | 612 | 1 | 14 | +1.8 |
| 3 | Adeiny Hechavarria | Drivers | 470 | 1 | 12 | +1.6 |
| 4 | Didi Gregorius | Dodgers | 525 | 1 | 14 | +1.5 |
| 5 | Brandon Crawford | Hornets | 507 | 1 | 16 | +1.4 |
| 6 | Jose Iglesias | Crows | 416 | 1 | 16 | +1.1 |
| 7 | Francisco Lindor | Razorbacks | 390 | 1 | 17 | +1.0 |
| 8 | Zack Cozart | Stars | 194 | 1 | 10 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Xander Bogaerts | Breakers | 613 | 2 | 12 | +0.5 |
| 10 | Jimmy Rollins | Huskies | 517 | 2 | 12 | +0.4 |
On the flip side, the following five shortstops would most acutely harm their club's chances for success, in theory, if positioned at shortstop for an entire season.
| No | Bottom 5 | Team | AB | Range | Error | Wins |
| 1 | Marcus Semien | Pilots | 556 | 4 | 38 | –4.0 |
| 2 | Wilmer Flores | Gators | 483 | 4 | 25 | –2.7 |
| 3 | Jose Reyes | Huskies | 481 | 4 | 23 | –2.6 |
| 4 | Jhonny Peralta | Roadrunners | 579 | 4 | 10 | –2.4 |
| 5 | Ian Desmond | Manatees | 583 | 3 | 29 | –2.4 |
The above table counts regular shortstops only. The worst possible defensive performance from a player rated at shortstop would come via the Gators' Matt "4e88" Duffy, who would cost Goldenrod approximately seven wins with his poor defensive play. Good thing he's a 2e15 at third base.
Second Base
Second basemen handle about 22 percent of all non-catcher X-Rolls in Strat. Let's work through the example of top-rated defender Dee Gordon of the Hornets. His 1e6 range rating will save Rosehill about 5.6 runs per 216 plate appearances, according to Carrano's research. Gordon has about 615 PAs on his card (factoring walk units), meaning that if he maxes out his playing time, he will save the Hornets a total of about 15.9 runs, which when divided by eight equals about two wins.| No | Top 10 | Team | AB | Range | Error | Wins |
| 1 | Dee Gordon | Hornets | 615 | 1 | 6 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Brandon Phillips | Manatees | 588 | 1 | 8 | +1.7 |
| 3 | D.J. LeMahieu | Crows | 564 | 1 | 10 | +1.7 |
| 4 | Ian Kinsler | Maulers | 624 | 1 | 14 | +1.5 |
| 5 | Joe Panik | Drivers | 382 | 1 | 4 | +1.4 |
| 6 | Danny Espinosa | Razorbacks | 367 | 1 | 4 | +1.3 |
| 7 | Ryan Goins | Gators | 376 | 1 | 8 | +1.2 |
| 8 | Jose Altuve | Nighthawks | 638 | 2 | 5 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Brian Dozier | Stars | 628 | 2 | 8 | +0.5 |
| 10 | Logan Forsythe | Lions | 540 | 2 | 10 | +0.3 |
On the flip side, the following five second basemen will most acutely harm their club's chances for success, if not used in moderation.
| No | Bottom 5 | Team | AB | Range | Error | Wins |
| 1 | Daniel Murphy | Pilots | 499 | 4 | 15 | –2.0 |
| 2 | Rougned Odor | Scorpions | 426 | 3 | 24 | –1.3 |
| 3 | Jedd Gyorko | Drivers | 421 | 4 | 4 | –1.3 |
| 4 | Cory Spangenberg | Manatees | 303 | 4 | 10 | –1.2 |
| 5 | Jason Kipnis | Lions | 565 | 3 | 10 | –1.0 |
The worst possible defensive performance from a player rated at second base would come via Drivers center fielder Carlos "5e71" Gomez, who played one inning at second for the Brewers in 2015. His glove would cost Death Valley about five wins if inexplicably stationed at the keystone for the entire season.
Center Field
Center fielders handle about 11 percent of all non-catcher X-Rolls in Strat, but then so too do third basemen.Put it this way: Stars center fielder Adam Jones has a 1e4 range rating and about 550 plate appearances on his card, yet according to Carrano's calculations, that defensive excellence and playing time amounts to less than half a win.
| No | Top 10 | Team | AB | Range | Error | Wins |
| 1 | Mike Trout | Dodgers | 575 | 1 | 0 | +0.9 |
| 2 | Andrew McCutchen | Lions | 566 | 1 | 2 | +0.7 |
| 3 | Kevin Pillar | Gators | 586 | 1 | 2 | +0.6 |
| 4 | A.J. Pollock | Snappers | 609 | 1 | 3 | +0.6 |
| 5 | Billy Hamilton | Gators | 412 | 1 | 0 | +0.6 |
| 6 | Adam Jones | Stars | 546 | 1 | 4 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Jackie Bradley | Breakers | 221 | 1 | 2 | +0.3 |
| 8 | Kevin Kiermaier | Pilots | 505 | 1 | 6 | +0.2 |
| 9 | Jake Marisnick | Nighthawks | 339 | 1 | 5 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Jarrod Dyson | Gators | 200 | 1 | 5 | +0.1 |
On the flip side, the following five center fielders will most acutely harm their club's chances for success, if left to roam the outfield pasture.
| No | Bottom 5 | Team | AB | Range | Error | Wins |
| 1 | Adam Eaton | Crows | 610 | 4 | 6 | –3.7 |
| 2 | Angel Pagan | Maulers | 512 | 4 | 5 | –2.9 |
| 3 | Dexter Fowler | Irish | 596 | 3 | 4 | –1.8 |
| 4 | Charlie Blackmon | Pilots | 614 | 3 | 3 | –1.6 |
| 5 | Odubel Herrera | Maulers | 495 | 3 | 7 | –1.6 |
Dutchmen third baseman Kris "4e16" Bryant and his 650 plate appearances would produce the largest negative value in center field at approximately four and a half wins to the detriment.
Best Double-Play Combinations
Which MMDA team has the best double-play combination? That's one of the questions I set out to answer when I embarked on this quest, because middle infielders process nearly half of all non-catcher X-Rolls—48 percent, to be exact—in Strat.I'm not entirely convinced that I discovered the answer to my question, but I am confident that I found a reasonable answer. So to tie everything together, I plugged in the best defensive shortstop and second-base win estimates above to arrive at the ranking for the most golden of Gold Glove double-play combos. This ranking assumes that the middle infielders play their allotted position exclusively and to the limit of their at-bat totals.
| No | Team | Shortstop | Wins | Second Base | Wins | Total |
| 1 | Hornets | B. Crawford | +1.4 | D. Gordon | +2.0 | +3.4 |
| 2 | Maulers | A. Escobar | +1.8 | I. Kinsler | +1.5 | +3.3 |
| 3 | Drivers | A. Hechavarria | +1.6 | J. Panik | +1.4 | +3.0 |
| 4 | Crows | J. Iglesias | +1.1 | D. LeMahieu | +1.7 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Razorbacks | F. Lindor | +1.0 | D. Espinosa | +1.3 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Stars | Z. Cozart | +0.7 | B. Dozier | +0.5 | +1.2 |
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