Sunday, May 24, 2015

Ballpark Factors & Dimensions For 2012-14 Seasons

Calculated using the methodology spelled out in this piece, here are runs-scored park factors for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 MMDA seasons.

We close with a review of three-year averages for the 17 teams that competed in the MMDA continuously from 2012 to 2014

MMDA Ballparks • 2014


No Team Division SI-L SI-R HR-L HR-R Factor Multiplier
1 Miami Northeast 7 7 9 9 111 1.055
2 Wilmington Atlantic 8 8 14 8 108 1.038
3 Goldenrod Central 8 4 16 4 107 1.037
4 Death Valley Atlantic 12 12 12 12 107 1.036
5 West Side Northeast 10 10 11 11 107 1.034
6 Elysian Fields Pacific 7 7 8 8 106 1.030
Northeast Northeast 12 6 9 4 106 1.030
8 St. Louis Central 7 7 7 9 105 1.023
9 Brooklyn Pacific 12 12 8 12 104 1.020
10 Columbus Central 2 8 2 7 103 1.017
11 Rochester Atlantic 10 10 8 8 102 1.012
12 Fighting Irish Northeast 10 10 5 5 101 1.006
13 Lake County Central 7 7 9 9 101 1.005
14 Jersey Atlantic 7 5 2 5 100 1.000
15 Cape Cod Northeast 4 10 16 2 96 0.981
16 Rosehill Central 5 5 5 5 95 0.974
17 Mohawk Valley Atlantic 2 2 6 6 92 0.962
18 California Pacific 2 2 2 5 87 0.935
19 Spokane Pacific 5 9 2 2 82 0.912
20 Northwest Pacific 8 6 7 5 80 0.902

Based on the weighted value for ballpark singles and home runs—and the league's left/right split of 28/72—we would expect Death Valley (107) to finish with the highest park factor and California (87) with the lowest.  They didn't miss by much.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Applying Ballpark Factors To MMDA Team Statistics

Customizing ballpark factors is one of the most difficult and agonizing decisions managers face each spring. Finding the most harmonious rate for single and home run frequency can add wins to a team's bottom line, but finding that perfect balance of offense and defense requires a deep understanding of player personnel—and also a lot of educated guesswork.

For years, I have endeavored to create ballpark factors for MMDA teams based on the statistical record, but until recently I had been stymied in my effort to find home/road splits. That changed when a fellow Strat obsessive pointed me to the line scores found within the League Stats menu.

With access to all teams' line scores, I summed all the runs a team scored and allowed at home, and then summed the same totals for each team on the road. Once I had those totals I could figure per-game rates by dividing by 81, and then compare those two rates to quantify the extent to which each MMDA park amplified or suppressed run production in a given season.

While I fully intend to apply this park-factor epiphany to the 2015 statistical record, I will do so only at the conclusion of the season, when teams have visited every park on their schedule and playing time has been fully distributed. Also, it takes some time to build the framework, so I only want to perform the calculations once per season.

However, this doesn't preclude me from revisiting the recent past and applying park factors to the 2014 data. From highest to lowest, here are the park factors I calculated for the 2014 season:

No Team Home R/GRoad R/GPark FactorMultiplier
1 Miami 8.86 7.99 111 1.055
2 Wilmington 9.33 8.68 108 1.038
3 Goldenrod 9.28 8.64 107 1.037
4 Death Valley 9.10 8.49 107 1.036
5 West Side 9.01 8.43 107 1.034
6 Elysian Fields 8.52 8.04 106 1.030
Northeast 9.46 8.93 106 1.030
8 St. Louis 8.09 7.73 105 1.023
9 Brooklyn 10.17 9.79 104 1.020
10 Columbus 7.86 7.60 103 1.017
11 Rochester 8.42 8.22 102 1.012
12 Fighting Irish9.05 8.95 101 1.006
13 Lake County 7.99 7.91 101 1.005
14 Jersey 8.51 8.51 100 1.000
15 Cape Cod 9.22 9.59 96 0.981
16 Rosehill 8.01 8.44 95 0.974
17 Mohawk Valley 7.83 8.47 92 0.962
18 California 8.40 9.65 87 0.935
19 Spokane 6.53 7.93 82 0.912
20 Northwest 6.75 8.40 80 0.902

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

MMDA Power Ranking After Block One

An attempt to rank the league's best teams after block one (30 games). Teams sorted by wins, then by run differential.

Note that this is not the official tie-breaking method for playoff seeding or draft order. Also, OPS+ and ERA+ are not adjusted for ballpark during the season.

Power Ranking 


No Team WLDivisionR/GOPS+RA/GERA+Run Diff
1 California 22 8 Pacific 5.17 124 3.60 106 +47
2 Northeast 19 11 Northeast 4.73 119 4.00 97 +22
3 St. Louis 18 12 Central 4.43 116 3.13 117 +39
4 Fighting Irish18 12 Northeast 4.53 118 3.87 98 +20
5 Miami 18 12 Northeast 3.77 113 3.43 119 +10
6 Goldenrod 18 12 Central 4.00 97 3.87 99 +4
7 Northwest 17 13 Pacific 3.27 79 2.90 132 +11
8 Spokane 17 13 Pacific 2.67 71 2.57 136 +3
9 Rosehill 16 14 Central 4.07 109 3.47 107 +18
10 Brooklyn 16 14 Pacific 4.20 109 3.87 96 +10
11 Death Valley 16 14 Atlantic 3.83 100 3.93 100 –3
12 West Side 15 15 Northeast 4.47 120 3.80 99 +20
13 Mohawk Valley 15 15 Atlantic 4.23 115 3.70 106 +16
14 Rochester 15 15 Atlantic 2.83 89 2.93 133 –3
15 Jersey 14 16 Atlantic 3.70 100 4.30 92 –18
16 Lake County 10 20 Central 3.07 79 3.97 92 –27
17 Elysian Fields 10 20 Pacific 3.10 85 4.20 88 –33
18 Little Rock 9 21 Central 4.23 111 5.73 62 –45
19 Cape Cod 9 21 Northeast 2.67 72 4.70 79 –61
20 Wilmington 8 22 Atlantic 2.53 67 3.53 106 –30