An infusion of experienced Strat managers, coupled with a four-team dispersal draft prior to the 2012 season appears to have brought parity to the MMDA.
Nothing attests to that quite like last year's World Series, which pitted No. 7 Mohawk Valley against No. 8 Goldenrod, the first crazy-eight playoff club to win the MMDA title in the league's recent history. The Yankee Clippers finished one game behind the Gators for the final playoff spot, while Lake County and Mount Ephraim finished three wins from breaking even.
All the postseason excitement appears to have encouraged a handful of clubs to choose card value in the early stages of the 2013 draft. For example, Wilmington grabbed Brandon Moss with the eighth pick in the draft, while Columbus selected Jordan Pacheco 12th overall, Rosehill drafted Ross Detwiler 13th (and Lucas Harrell 33rd) and Northeast nabbed Justin Ruggiano 16th. The strategy made sense this year, perhaps more than other years, given that the draft was bereft of elite talent beyond the first dozen or so prospects.
A playoff appearance in 2013 would validate any of those clubs' initial selections, but exactly how tightly clustered are the MMDA's teams? One way to approach the question is to examine the standard deviation between all 20 clubs' win totals and compare that separation with past seasons. Running the numbers through Excel yields the following chart, which dates back to the 2002 season.
Keep in mind, a low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the mean; a high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a large range of values. (Thank you, Wikipedia.)
This graph shows that teams in the MMDA have never been more tightly bunched than they were in 2012—though they were in approximately the same position in 2005 before the rise of a few super teams (and despair of Cold Warriors teams that averaged 111 losses for one three-year period) drove the standard deviation to the low 20s.
Suffice to say, the league is healthier today than it's been in eight years, and in much better shape than it was at the turn of the millennium, but more on that below.
Living On The Edge
A snapshot of league health can be determined by finding out how many teams operate at the margins in each season. Winning 100 games is an achievement that ought to be rare in a strong league, where the top teams face many challengers to the throne. Conversely, losing 100 games should be equally rare, with no more than two or three teams vying for the No. 1 pick.
As the table below illustrates, the MMDA just completed arguably its most competitive season in the last 11, with just thee clubs (15 percent) crossing the 100-win or 100-loss barrier.
| Year | 100 W | 100 L | PCT LGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 8 | 7 | 75% |
| 2003 | 3 | 4 | 35% |
| 2004 | 4 | 4 | 40% |
| 2005 | 3 | 1 | 20% |
| 2006 | 3 | 0 | 15% |
| 2007 | 3 | 3 | 30% |
| 2008 | 5 | 4 | 45% |
| 2009 | 5 | 5 | 50% |
| 2010 | 2 | 3 | 25% |
| 2011 | 5 | 4 | 45% |
| 2012 | 2 | 1 | 15% |
In three of the past five seasons, however, the MMDA has featured roughly half its teams operating at the margins. That's nothing compared with 2002, when three out of four clubs were extremely rich or extremely poor in fortune. That year all eight playoff teams won 100 games, feasting on a weak underbelly than included seven 100-game losers.
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