Sunday, February 8, 2015

What A Replacement-Level Team Would Look Like

By Matt Eddy

For the second year in a row, White Sox third baseman Conor Gillaspie went unselected in our league's draft, despite having an abundance of at-bats both years. MMDA managers clearly are not impressed with the lefthanded-hitting Gillaspie's low-watt power (zero ballpark diamonds) and unremarkable fielding (4e16) at the hot corner.

Nobody seems to want Conor Gillaspie in the MMDA
This led me to wonder which other passable cards were passed over on draft day. That led me to wonder how competitive such a collection of draft leftovers might be, so I created a team out of our league's freely-available talent. This is the very definition of replacement level, for an expansion team picking up where the MMDA draft left off in round 12 could have acquired all these players at no cost.

Using the roster evaluator tool at the SOM World site, I plugged in the most logical draft leftovers to populate a 21st roster in the MMDA. Needless to say, this team would not be competitive for anything more than the No. 1 overall draft pick.

In fact, a 21st MMDA team would finish with an estimated 58 wins, according to the roster evaluator. Take a wild guess where the evaluator sets the minimum win total for even the least-talented team? That's right: 58 wins. In other words, even the worst team ought to luck its way into a win about 35 percent of the time.

2015 Draft Supplemental Rounds

Results for the supplemental rounds—this year the eighth through 12th rounds—of the 2015 MMDA draft are as follows. For the first seven rounds—the "regulation" phase—visit the 2015 Draft Results.

Gators ninth-rounder Christian Colon
EIGHTH ROUND
141 Scorpions Josh Tomlin, rhp, Indians
142 Dutchmen Chris Young, rhp, Mariners
143 Breakers Trevor May, rhp, Twins
144 Razorbacks Nick Tepesch, rhp, Rangers
145 Bluejays <no selection>
146 Crows James Russell, lhp, Braves
147 Gators Shawn Kelley, rhp, Yankees
148 Huskies Tyler Lyons, lhp, Cardinals
149 Lions Blake Treinen, rhp, Nationals

NINTH ROUND
150 Scorpions Brandon Workman, rhp, Red Sox
151 Dutchmen Rymer Liriano, of, Padres
152 Breakers Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, Red Sox
153 Razorbacks Matt Stites, rhp, D-backs
154 Crows Chris Hatcher, rhp, Marlins
155 Gators Christian Colon, 2b, Royals
156 Lions Justin Grimm, rhp, Cubs

10TH ROUND
157 Scorpions Trevor Cahill, rhp, D-backs
158 Dutchmen Tucker Barnhart, c, Reds
159 Breakers Colby Lewis, rhp, Rangers
160 Razorbacks Adrian Nieto, c, White Sox
161 Crows Brad Brach, rhp, Orioles
162 Gators Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles
163 Lions Dan Robertson, of, Rangers

11TH ROUND
164 Scorpions Josh Edgin, lhp, Mets
165 Dutchmen Juan Francisco, 1b, Blue Jays
166 Crows Yohan Flande, lhp, Rockies
167 Gators Kevin Pillar, of, Blue Jays
168 Lions Chris Bassitt, rhp, White Sox

12TH ROUND
169 Dutchmen Tsuyoshi Wada, lhp, Cubs
170 Crows Ramon Santiago, ss, Reds
171 Gators Casey Fien, rhp, Twins

Lions Makeover Continues On Draft Day

By Matt Eddy

A hyperactive offseason in Mohawk Valley gave way to a busy draft day as the Lions' extreme makeover continued unabated.

From Motown to Mohawk Valley, J.D. Martinez carries a big stick
The Lions selected seven players in the 2015 draft, then completed a post-draft trade with Spokane to acquire left fielder J.D. Martinez. Current card value was clearly the theme of the day, for the average age of Mohawk Valley's eight draft-day additions is 26 years old. All the maneuvering indicates the club's goals for the coming year: a 10th consecutive winning season and fifth straight trip to the playoffs.

In all, Mohawk Valley will bring to spring training a dozen new faces expected to fill regular or complementary roles.

The Lions kicked their retool into high gear last fall, swinging trades for second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera, left fielder Carl Crawford, first baseman Albert Pujols, No. 5 starter Drew Smyly and center fielder Denard Span. They added role players, such as reliever David Carpenter and platoon second baseman Logan Forsythe, around the margins.

On draft day, Mohawk Valley buttressed a weak bullpen with righthanders Dellin Betances (first round) and Justin Grimm (ninth) and lefty Fernando Abad (fourth), while also picking up outfielders Brandon Guyer (fifth) and Dan Robertson (10th) for weak-side platoon deployment. The club also speculated on power righties Blake Treinen (eighth) and Chris Bassitt (11th) in the late rounds, but they have no defined roles for 2015.

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Top Nine Players Mohawk Valley Gave Up On Too Early

By Matt Eddy

Every manager knows the sense of regret that comes with releasing or trading a player too early, only to see him find success with a new team.

The Lions still rue trading Brandon Morrow before he
blossomed north of the border

Mohawk Valley knows the feeling all too well, having given up on at least nine players the club drafted and then unceremoniously dumped before they blossomed in the big leagues. This doesn't necessarily mean the players would have been Strat-O-Matic monsters, but these players had obvious utility in their post-Lions careers.

1. Brandon Morrow, rhp
2008 draft (3rd round)

Perhaps the worst trade in club history occurred after the 2009 season, when the Lions dealt Morrow to the Stars for Chris Volstad. Morrow spent three wild years in the Mariners bullpen (5.8 BB/9) before growing into a power starter with the Blue Jays (9.8 SO/9) from 2010-12, while Volstad never did much of anything in MLB or the MMDA.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Top 10 Prospects Who Did Not Receive A Card In The 2015 Set

By Matt Eddy

Each MMDA draft features its fair share of prospects with high ceilings, but some promising young players inevitably do not play enough to receive a card from Strat-O-Matic. That makes them ineligible for selection in the MMDA draft—we allow only carded players to be drafted—but just think how much better this year's rookie class would look with some of the following names.

To repeat: The following players made their big league debuts in 2014 but are not eligible for the MMDA draft in February.

1. Daniel Norris, lhp, Blue Jays. The 2011 second-rounder received a September callup to Toronto, but logged just 6.2 innings in five appearances, so Norris' no-card status is not surprising.

The 21-year-old conquered three levels of the minors during the 2014 season, using three strong pitches to miss bats (minor league best 11.8 SO/9) and limit hard contact (.212 average).

Can Norris repeat this performance in 2015? Can he overcome lefty bias in a 20-team Strat league? Stay tuned.

2. Eddie Butler, rhp, Rockies. An injury-plagued season at Double-A in 2014 has lowered his stock, but Butler throws three quality pitches and could reestablish his 2013 level of dominance if he successfully rehabs back and shoulder injuries this offseason.

3. Jorge Polanco, ss, Twins. Minnesota favored the young, switch-hitting middle infielder's makeup and ability so much that they called him up as an emergency fill-in in mid-June, all the way from High-A Fort Myers. Polanco batted just eight times and started only one game, so nobody could have expected him to receive a card.

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

2014 Playoffs: League Leaders, Award Winners And More

LEAGUE LEADERS FOR 2014 MMDA Playoff                                  

 ----BATTING AVERAGE----   --------AT BATS--------   ------RUNS SCORED------  
 A.Ramirez     GOL  .462   E.Longoria    HUS    80   R.Cano        HUS    14   
 J.Heyward     NWS  .417   R.Cano        HUS    78   A.Craig       HUS    14   
 C.Blackmon    DVD  .412   A.Craig       HUS    76   C.Crisp       HUS    13   
 R.Cano        HUS  .410   D.Ortiz       HUS    67   J.Kipnis      MVL    12   
 J.Hardy       ROC  .393   S.Drew        HUS    67   S.Drew        HUS    10   
 M.Scutaro     DVD  .391   C.Crisp       HUS    64   T.Hunter      GOL    10   
 M.Cabrera     BRK  .388   A.McCutchen   MVL    64   J.Upton       HUS     9   
 A.Beltre      ROC  .367   P.Fielder     MVL    64   C.Davis       GOL     9   
 G.Stanton     FIR  .364   J.Upton       HUS    62   M.Cabrera     BRK     8   
 H.Ramirez     BRK  .354   S.Perez       HUS    59   M.Trout       BRK     8   
 C.Crawford    DVD  .350   J.Kipnis      MVL    58   A.McCutchen   MVL     8   
 A.McCutchen   MVL  .344   OTHERS TIED WITH     56   N.McLouth     MVL     8   

 ----------HITS---------   --------DOUBLES--------   --------TRIPLES--------  
 R.Cano        HUS    32   D.Ortiz       HUS     7   C.Crisp       HUS     2   
 A.Ramirez     GOL    24   A.McCutchen   MVL     7   OTHERS TIED WITH      1   
 A.McCutchen   MVL    22   S.Drew        HUS     6                             
 A.Craig       HUS    20   M.Carp        HUS     5                             
 M.Cabrera     BRK    19   A.Ramirez     GOL     5                             
 E.Aybar       MVL    19   J.Heyward     NWS     5                             
 J.Upton       HUS    17   R.Cano        HUS     4                             
 H.Ramirez     BRK    17   E.Longoria    HUS     4                             
 J.Kipnis      MVL    16   C.Davis       GOL     4                             
 Y.Gomes       MVL    16   D.Murphy      GOL     4                             
 S.Drew        HUS    15   C.Quentin     MVL     4                             
 T.Hunter      GOL    15   OTHERS TIED WITH      3                             

 --------HOMERUNS-------   -----RUNS BATTED IN----   ---------WALKS---------  
 R.Cano        HUS     6   E.Longoria    HUS    14   J.Upton       HUS    12   
 P.Alvarez     GOL     5   R.Cano        HUS    13   A.Craig       HUS    12   
 M.Cabrera     BRK     5   Y.Gomes       MVL    12   M.Trout       BRK    12   
 E.Longoria    HUS     4   P.Alvarez     GOL    11   J.Kipnis      MVL    12   
 M.Adams       ROC     4   D.Ortiz       HUS    10   A.McCutchen   MVL    11   
 A.Craig       HUS     3   C.Davis       GOL    10   R.Cano        HUS    10   
 C.Crisp       HUS     3   M.Cabrera     BRK    10   C.Quentin     MVL     9   
 S.Drew        HUS     3   C.Crisp       HUS     9   R.Martin      GOL     8   
 C.Davis       GOL     3   A.Ramirez     GOL     9   P.Fielder     MVL     8   
 N.Walker      BRK     3   P.Fielder     MVL     9   D.Ortiz       HUS     7   
 OTHERS TIED WITH      2   OTHERS TIED WITH      8   S.Drew        HUS     7   
                                                     OTHERS TIED WITH      6   

2014 Season: League Leaders & Award Winners

LEAGUE LEADERS FOR 2014 MMDA                                          

 ----BATTING AVERAGE----   --------AT BATS--------   ------RUNS SCORED------  
 M.Cabrera     BRK  .343   A.Beltre      ROC   675   M.Trout       BRK   138   
 M.Trout       BRK  .342   A.Ramirez     JER   666   C.Davis       GOL   120   
 M.Scutaro     DVD  .323   M.Machado     EFD   665   M.Cabrera     BRK   120   
 V.Martinez    FIR  .316   D.Span        MIA   662   A.Soriano     BRK   101   
 M.Cuddyer     WSB  .316   A.Jones       NWS   657   P.Goldschmidt FIR    98   
 D.Ortiz       HUS  .313   E.Andrus      NWS   656   D.Ortiz       HUS    98   
 Y.Molina      RAZ  .308   E.Hosmer      DVD   651   A.McCutchen   MVL    98   
 J.Ellsbury    HOR  .307   D.Pedroia     CCB   643   J.Upton       HUS    94   
 B.Lawrie      FIR  .295   P.Fielder     MVL   638   S.Choo        CCB    93   
 T.Hunter      GOL  .295   E.Longoria    HUS   636   E.Hosmer      DVD    92   
 D.Nava        FIR  .295   N.Markakis    HOR   633   J.Kipnis      MVL    87   
 J.Lowrie      DVD  .292   OTHERS TIED WITH    632   OTHERS TIED WITH     86   

 ----------HITS---------   --------DOUBLES--------   --------TRIPLES--------  
 M.Trout       BRK   198   M.Machado     EFD    54   C.Gomez       DVD    19   
 M.Cabrera     BRK   195   R.Cano        HUS    46   J.Ellsbury    HOR    13   
 E.Hosmer      DVD   190   M.Trout       BRK    45   D.Span        MIA    12   
 D.Span        MIA   185   G.Parra       FIR    44   W.Venable     MVL    11   
 T.Hunter      GOL   184   A.Ramirez     JER    44   J.Dyson       GOL    10   
 V.Martinez    FIR   182   D.Ortiz       HUS    44   M.Trout       BRK    10   
 R.Cano        HUS   182   M.Carpenter   JER    43   S.Marte       MIA    10   
 J.Ellsbury    HOR   182   C.Davis       GOL    42   C.Gonzalez    RAZ     9   
 A.Ramirez     JER   181   B.Posey       HOR    42   B.Miller      CAL     9   
 P.Goldschmidt FIR   180   Y.Molina      RAZ    42   B.Gardner     CLP     9   
 C.Davis       GOL   180   D.Murphy      ROC    40   OTHERS TIED WITH      8   
 J.Lowrie      DVD   178   OTHERS TIED WITH     39                             

 --------HOMERUNS-------   -----RUNS BATTED IN----   ---------WALKS---------  
 C.Davis       GOL    64   M.Cabrera     BRK   152   M.Trout       BRK   135   
 M.Cabrera     BRK    53   C.Davis       GOL   145   J.Votto       LCN   128   
 P.Alvarez     GOL    44   A.Soriano     BRK   120   P.Goldschmidt FIR   112   
 A.Soriano     BRK    43   R.Cano        HUS   115   S.Choo        CCB   106   
 E.Longoria    HUS    39   P.Goldschmidt FIR   109   M.Carpenter   JER   106   
 D.Ortiz       HUS    33   E.Longoria    HUS   109   C.Santana     NWS    97   
 B.Moss        RAZ    33   M.Trout       BRK   108   M.Cabrera     BRK    94   
 N.Cruz        CLP    31   P.Alvarez     GOL   103   P.Fielder     MVL    84   
 J.Upton       HUS    30   D.Ortiz       HUS    96   E.Encarnacion WSB    79   
 OTHERS TIED WITH     29   J.Lowrie      DVD    96   D.Pedroia     CCB    78   
                           G.Stanton     FIR    91   J.Upton       HUS    78   
                           OTHERS TIED WITH     89   B.Zobrist     WSB    77