Thursday, September 3, 2015

MMDA Power Ranking After Block Five


An attempt to rank the league's best teams after block five (138 games). Teams sorted by wins, then by run differential.

Note that this is not the official tie-breaking method for playoff seeding or draft order. Also, OPS+ and ERA+ are not adjusted for ballpark context—at least not during the season.

RD stands for run differential and Pyth for Pythagorean winning percentage. BB% and SO/BB ratio do not include intentional walks.

Power Ranking 


No Team WLPCTDivisionR/GOPS+RA/GERA+PythRD
1 Northwest 98 40 .710 Pacific 4.86 109 3.29 130 .671 +216
2 Mohawk Valley 95 43 .688 Atlantic 4.60 115 3.20 128 .661 +194
3 Rosehill 85 53 .616 Central 4.46 105 3.58 116 .599 +121
4 Brooklyn 79 59 .572 Pacific 5.24 119 4.32 94 .587 +127
Northeast 79 59 .572 Northeast 4.43 107 4.14 101 .532 +41
6 Rochester 75 63 .543 Atlantic 4.16 103 3.33 120 .600 +114
Miami 75 63 .543 Northeast 4.19 109 3.72 110 .554 +65
Spokane 75 63 .543 Pacific 3.28 80 3.02 143 .538 +36
9 Goldenrod 73 65 .529 Central 3.88 91 3.66 108 .526 +30
10 Fighting Irish 71 67 .514 Northeast 4.78 116 4.47 93 .531 +43
California 71 67 .514 Pacific 4.41 104 4.22 99 .519 +25
12 St. Louis 69 69 .500 Central 3.91 95 3.92 104 .499 –1
13 West Side 65 73 .471 Northeast 4.40 106 4.48 91 .492 –11
Death Valley 65 73 .471 Atlantic 4.07 104 4.18 99 .487 –16
15 Jersey 64 74 .464 Atlantic 3.78 98 4.35 95 .436 –79
16 Lake County 59 79 .428 Central 4.13 101 4.49 93 .462 –50
17 Wilmington 52 86 .377 Atlantic 3.41 85 4.36 93 .390 –131
18 Elysian Fields 51 87 .370 Pacific 3.41 85 4.67 88 .360 –174
19 Cape Cod 41 97 .297 Northeast 3.46 83 5.49 75 .301 –280
20 Little Rock 38 100 .275 Central 3.43 84 5.39 74 .305 –270

Monday, August 3, 2015

MMDA Power Ranking After Block Four

An attempt to rank the league's best teams after block four (108 games). Teams sorted by wins, then by run differential.

Note that this is not the official tie-breaking method for playoff seeding or draft order. Also, OPS+ and ERA+ are not adjusted for ballpark context—at least not during the season.

RD stands for run differential and Pyth for Pythagorean winning percentage. BB% and SO/BB ratio do not include intentional walks.

Power Ranking 


No Team WLPCTDivisionR/GOPS+RA/GERA+PythRD
1 Northwest 76 32 .704 Pacific 4.65 108 3.21 130 .663 +155
2 Mohawk Valley 71 37 .657 Atlantic 4.54 113 3.23 128 .650 +141
3 Rosehill 66 42 .611 Central 4.42 104 3.42 119 .615 +108
4 Northeast 64 44 .593 Northeast 4.34 108 4.01 102 .536 +36
5 Brooklyn 63 45 .583 Pacific 5.36 120 4.34 93 .595 +110
6 Miami 62 46 .574 Northeast 4.51 114 3.62 113 .599 +96
7 Rochester 59 49 .546 Atlantic 4.11 102 3.31 122 .597 +86

Spokane 59 49 .546 Pacific 3.26 78 3.13 141 .519 +14
9 St. Louis 57 51 .528 Central 4.03 99 3.88 104 .517 +16
10 Goldenrod 55 53 .509 Central 3.85 91 3.65 108 .525 +22

Fighting Irish55 53 .509 Northeast 4.75 117 4.56 90 .518 +20
12 California 53 55 .491 Pacific 4.31 102 4.28 97 .503 +3
13 West Side 52 56 .481 Northeast 4.44 108 4.44 92 .500 0
14 Death Valley 51 57 .472 Atlantic 3.90 99 4.03 102 .485 –14
15 Jersey 48 60 .444 Atlantic 3.56 93 4.39 95 .406 –89
16 Lake County 46 62 .426 Central 4.16 101 4.47 93 .467 –34
17 Wilmington 42 66 .389 Atlantic 3.30 85 4.17 97 .394 –94
18 Elysian Fields 39 69 .361 Pacific 3.35 82 4.68 87 .352 –143
19 Little Rock 34 74 .315 Central 3.56 91 5.32 74 .323 –191
20 Cape Cod 28 80 .259 Northeast 3.45 84 5.69 71 .286 –242

Friday, July 3, 2015

MMDA Midseason Report For 2015

The complete MMDA league report, featuring category leaders, team statistics and award winners, output after block three. In other words, it's the midseason report.

League Leaders

 ----BATTING AVERAGE----   --------AT BATS--------   ------RUNS SCORED------  
 V.Martinez    FIR  .349   J.Altuve      LCN   363   J.Altuve      LCN    64   
 A.McCutchen   MVL  .339   D.Pedroia     CCB   354   H.Ramirez     BRK    62   
 J.Altuve      LCN  .333   A.Rendon      BRK   351   G.Stanton     FIR    61   
 J.Abreu       EFD  .326   I.Kinsler     STL   349   M.Trout       BRK    61   
 A.Jones       NWS  .321   V.Martinez    FIR   347   A.McCutchen   MVL    61   
 S.Castro      FIR  .318   M.Brantley    DVD   344   V.Martinez    FIR    59   
 R.Cano        HUS  .311   B.Phillips    MIA   341   D.Ortiz       HUS    54   
 N.Markakis    HOR  .311   A.Jones       NWS   340   M.Cabrera     BRK    54   
 R.Odor        LRS  .310   H.Ramirez     BRK   339   J.Abreu       EFD    53   
 M.Cabrera     BRK  .303   M.Cabrera     BRK   337   N.Markakis    HOR    53   
 D.Santana     JER  .303   S.Marte       MIA   333   M.Brantley    DVD    53   
 C.Gomez       DVD  .301   OTHERS TIED WITH    332   OTHERS TIED WITH     51   

 ----------HITS---------   --------DOUBLES--------   --------TRIPLES--------  
 V.Martinez    FIR   121   J.Lucroy      JER    36   K.Kiermaier   ROC    10   
 J.Altuve      LCN   121   J.Altuve      LCN    32   A.Eaton       SPO     7   
 A.Jones       NWS   109   I.Kinsler     STL    28   R.Odor        LRS     7   
 J.Abreu       EFD   106   H.Ramirez     BRK    28   B.Crawford    HOR     6   
 R.Cano        HUS   102   M.Brantley    DVD    27   D.Gordon      HOR     6   
 M.Cabrera     BRK   102   A.McCutchen   MVL    26   A.Rendon      BRK     6   
 N.Markakis    HOR   101   M.Cabrera     BRK    25   OTHERS TIED WITH      5   
 M.Brantley    DVD   100   D.Span        MVL    25                             
 A.Rendon      BRK    98   P.Goldschmidt FIR    24                             
 A.McCutchen   MVL    98   J.Peralta     CAL    24                             
 OTHERS TIED WITH     97   OTHERS TIED WITH     22                             

 --------HOMERUNS-------   -----RUNS BATTED IN----   ---------WALKS---------  
 G.Stanton     FIR    27   G.Stanton     FIR    78   A.McCutchen   MVL    63   
 D.Ortiz       HUS    25   M.Trout       BRK    74   C.Santana     NWS    55   
 M.Trout       BRK    24   D.Ortiz       HUS    70   J.Werth       JER    53   
 J.Abreu       EFD    22   A.Jones       NWS    65   P.Goldschmidt FIR    52   
 T.Tulowitzki  CCB    21   A.McCutchen   MVL    60   J.Bautista    WSB    51   
 C.Carter      CAL    19   E.Encarnacion WSB    56   B.Dozier      NWS    50   
 M.Ozuna       MIA    19   V.Martinez    FIR    56   S.Choo        CCB    48   
 A.Gonzalez    CCB    18   M.Cabrera     BRK    56   G.Stanton     FIR    47   
 E.Encarnacion WSB    18   T.Tulowitzki  CCB    55   F.Freeman     RAZ    46   
 A.Jones       NWS    18   K.Seager      NWS    55   B.Zobrist     WSB    45   
 OTHERS TIED WITH     17   J.Abreu       EFD    54   M.Carpenter   JER    43   
                           J.Martinez    MVL    51   M.Trout       BRK    42   

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

MMDA Power Ranking After Block Three

An attempt to rank the league's best teams after block three (84 games). Teams sorted by wins, then by run differential.

Note that this is not the official tie-breaking method for playoff seeding or draft order. Also, OPS+ and ERA+ are not adjusted for ballpark context—at least not during the season.

RD stands for run differential and Pyth for Pythagorean winning percentage. BB% and SO/BB ratio do not include intentional walks.

Power Ranking 


No Team WLPCTDivisionR/GOPS+RA/GERA+PythRD
1 Northwest 57 27 .679 Pacific 4.52 106 3.21 128 .651 +110
2 Mohawk Valley 56 28 .667 Atlantic 4.62 116 3.26 127 .654 +114
3 Northeast 52 32 .619 Northeast 4.48 110 3.89 105 .564 +49
4 Rosehill 51 33 .607 Central 4.18 102 3.27 124 .610 +76
5 California 47 37 .560 Pacific 4.54 107 3.90 103 .568 +53

Brooklyn 47 37 .560 Pacific 5.29 120 4.67 86 .557 +52

Spokane 47 37 .560 Pacific 3.21 77 2.94 145 .541 +23
8 Miami 46 38 .548 Northeast 4.26 111 3.73 109 .561 +45
9 Rochester 45 39 .536 Atlantic 3.88 98 3.33 122 .569 +46

Goldenrod 45 39 .536 Central 3.93 93 3.45 115 .559 +40
11 St. Louis 43 41 .512 Central 3.99 102 3.75 106 .528 +20

Fighting Irish43 41 .512 Northeast 4.73 119 4.55 89 .518 +15
13 Death Valley 42 42 .500 Atlantic 3.95 100 3.96 102 .499 –1
14 West Side 40 44 .476 Northeast 4.31 105 4.40 93 .490 –8
15 Jersey 37 47 .440 Atlantic 3.58 93 4.45 92 .402 –73
16 Lake County 36 48 .429 Central 4.11 96 4.42 93 .467 –26
17 Elysian Fields 32 52 .381 Pacific 3.48 85 4.65 88 .370 –99
18 Wilmington 31 53 .369 Atlantic 3.37 87 4.04 102 .418 –56
19 Little Rock 23 61 .274 Central 3.46 92 5.71 68 .286 –189
20 Cape Cod 20 64 .238 Northeast 3.39 81 5.67 72 .281 –191

Saturday, June 6, 2015

MMDA Power Ranking After Block Two

An attempt to rank the league's best teams after block two (54 games). Teams sorted by wins, then by run differential.

Note that this is not the official tie-breaking method for playoff seeding or draft order. Also, OPS+ and ERA+ are not adjusted for ballpark context, at least not during the season.

RD stands for run differential and Pyth for Pythagorean winning percentage. BB% does not include intentional walks.

Power Ranking 


No Team WLPCTDivisionR/GOPS+RA/GERA+PythRD
1 Rosehill 35 19 .648 Central 4.41 110 3.30 123 .630 +60
2 Northeast 35 19 .648 Northeast 4.61 114 3.61 113 .610 +54
3 Northwest 34 20 .630 Pacific 4.19 101 3.15 126 .627 +56
4 Mohawk Valley 32 22 .593 Atlantic 4.43 114 3.59 112 .594 +45
5 Miami 32 22 .593 Northeast 4.39 116 3.57 112 .593 +44
6 Fighting Irish32 22 .593 Northeast 5.15 127 4.43 90 .569 +39
7 St. Louis 32 22 .593 Central 3.98 107 3.37 114 .576 +33
8 California 31 23 .574 Pacific 4.33 105 3.69 106 .574 +35
9 Goldenrod 31 23 .574 Central 3.98 94 3.37 118 .576 +33
10 Spokane 30 24 .556 Pacific 3.17 75 2.94 138 .533 +12
11 Death Valley 28 26 .519 Atlantic 3.81 102 3.70 108 .514 +6
12 Brooklyn 28 26 .519 Pacific 4.43 105 4.44 90 .498 –1
13 West Side 27 27 .500 Northeast 4.54 110 4.07 99 .549 +25
14 Rochester 27 27 .500 Atlantic 3.44 94 3.17 123 .538 +15
15 Jersey 24 30 .444 Atlantic 3.57 93 4.56 90 .391 –53
16 Lake County 20 34 .370 Central 3.69 85 4.15 94 .446 –25
17 Elysian Fields 19 35 .352 Pacific 3.33 83 4.52 87 .364 –64
18 Wilmington 17 37 .315 Atlantic 2.98 81 3.93 101 .377 –51
19 Little Rock 13 41 .241 Central 3.85 104 5.93 64 .313 –112
20 Cape Cod 13 41 .241 Northeast 2.83 76 5.63 68 .222 –151

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Ballpark Factors & Dimensions For 2012-14 Seasons

Calculated using the methodology spelled out in this piece, here are runs-scored park factors for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 MMDA seasons.

We close with a review of three-year averages for the 17 teams that competed in the MMDA continuously from 2012 to 2014

MMDA Ballparks • 2014


No Team Division SI-L SI-R HR-L HR-R Factor Multiplier
1 Miami Northeast 7 7 9 9 111 1.055
2 Wilmington Atlantic 8 8 14 8 108 1.038
3 Goldenrod Central 8 4 16 4 107 1.037
4 Death Valley Atlantic 12 12 12 12 107 1.036
5 West Side Northeast 10 10 11 11 107 1.034
6 Elysian Fields Pacific 7 7 8 8 106 1.030
Northeast Northeast 12 6 9 4 106 1.030
8 St. Louis Central 7 7 7 9 105 1.023
9 Brooklyn Pacific 12 12 8 12 104 1.020
10 Columbus Central 2 8 2 7 103 1.017
11 Rochester Atlantic 10 10 8 8 102 1.012
12 Fighting Irish Northeast 10 10 5 5 101 1.006
13 Lake County Central 7 7 9 9 101 1.005
14 Jersey Atlantic 7 5 2 5 100 1.000
15 Cape Cod Northeast 4 10 16 2 96 0.981
16 Rosehill Central 5 5 5 5 95 0.974
17 Mohawk Valley Atlantic 2 2 6 6 92 0.962
18 California Pacific 2 2 2 5 87 0.935
19 Spokane Pacific 5 9 2 2 82 0.912
20 Northwest Pacific 8 6 7 5 80 0.902

Based on the weighted value for ballpark singles and home runs—and the league's left/right split of 28/72—we would expect Death Valley (107) to finish with the highest park factor and California (87) with the lowest.  They didn't miss by much.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Applying Ballpark Factors To MMDA Team Statistics

Customizing ballpark factors is one of the most difficult and agonizing decisions managers face each spring. Finding the most harmonious rate for single and home run frequency can add wins to a team's bottom line, but finding that perfect balance of offense and defense requires a deep understanding of player personnel—and also a lot of educated guesswork.

For years, I have endeavored to create ballpark factors for MMDA teams based on the statistical record, but until recently I had been stymied in my effort to find home/road splits. That changed when a fellow Strat obsessive pointed me to the line scores found within the League Stats menu.

With access to all teams' line scores, I summed all the runs a team scored and allowed at home, and then summed the same totals for each team on the road. Once I had those totals I could figure per-game rates by dividing by 81, and then compare those two rates to quantify the extent to which each MMDA park amplified or suppressed run production in a given season.

While I fully intend to apply this park-factor epiphany to the 2015 statistical record, I will do so only at the conclusion of the season, when teams have visited every park on their schedule and playing time has been fully distributed. Also, it takes some time to build the framework, so I only want to perform the calculations once per season.

However, this doesn't preclude me from revisiting the recent past and applying park factors to the 2014 data. From highest to lowest, here are the park factors I calculated for the 2014 season:

No Team Home R/GRoad R/GPark FactorMultiplier
1 Miami 8.86 7.99 111 1.055
2 Wilmington 9.33 8.68 108 1.038
3 Goldenrod 9.28 8.64 107 1.037
4 Death Valley 9.10 8.49 107 1.036
5 West Side 9.01 8.43 107 1.034
6 Elysian Fields 8.52 8.04 106 1.030
Northeast 9.46 8.93 106 1.030
8 St. Louis 8.09 7.73 105 1.023
9 Brooklyn 10.17 9.79 104 1.020
10 Columbus 7.86 7.60 103 1.017
11 Rochester 8.42 8.22 102 1.012
12 Fighting Irish9.05 8.95 101 1.006
13 Lake County 7.99 7.91 101 1.005
14 Jersey 8.51 8.51 100 1.000
15 Cape Cod 9.22 9.59 96 0.981
16 Rosehill 8.01 8.44 95 0.974
17 Mohawk Valley 7.83 8.47 92 0.962
18 California 8.40 9.65 87 0.935
19 Spokane 6.53 7.93 82 0.912
20 Northwest 6.75 8.40 80 0.902