By Matt Eddy
Speed never goes into a slump, or so the baseball aphorism posits. The same can be said for defense in Strat-O-Matic baseball, provided that the defender has low enough range and error ratings to convert a high percentage of X-Rolls.
Due to the nature of X-Roll probabilities around the diamond, defenders at certain positions are more consequential than others. Seasoned baseball fans implicitly understand the concept of the defensive spectrum and position value. In SOM terms, the X-Roll probabilities are distributed along these lines:
X-Rolls Per 216 Plate Appearances (108 Rolls Off Hitter Card)
63 | Shortstop
54 | Second Base
27 | Center Field, Third Base
18 | Left Field, Right Field, First Base, Pitcher
The table above illustrates why second base is referred to as the keystone, because the two infielders stationed near the second-base bag are the cornerstones of team defense. Shortstops (.29) and second basemen (.25) process more X-Rolls per plate appearance in the SOM game than (non-catcher) defenders at any other position.
MMDA League Blog
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Top Eight Rotations You Want To Avoid In The Playoffs
By Matt Eddy
How strong is the link between rotation quality and team success in a 20-team Strat league? In the case of the MMDA: pretty strong.
Prior to the 2015 season, I ranked the top eight MMDA rotations in terms of the quality of each club's top four starters—the quartet most likely to appear in a playoff series. As it turned out, four of the top six teams on that ranking advanced to the league semifinals in 2015. The No. 2 Miami Manatees met the No. 3 Northwest Stars in one bracket, while in the other, the No. 4 Mohawk Valley Lions combated the No. 6 Spokane Hooded Crows.
So let's give it another go. Just like last year, I will rank in this space the eight most fearsome rotations in
the MMDA, at least according to the on-base and total-base units for the top
four starter cards on each team.
The methodology is slightly changed this year. I used the SOM World starting pitcher rankings to remove my subjectivity and personal bias from the exercise. I also weighted the starter cards on a simple 4-3-2-1 scale to reward clubs with top-heavy rotations. After all, a club's top two starters likely will compile the most playoff innings.
Each club's top four starters—again, according to SOM World—are included here, along with their overall rank among starters. An asterisk (*) denotes that a pitcher may come back on short rest in the playoffs.
1. Spokane Hooded Crows (Pacific)
RHP Zack Greinke (2*), LHP Clayton Kershaw (3*), RHP Jesse Hahn (15), LHP Cole Hamels (16*)
Four of the top 20 starters in the 2016 set can be found in the Crows' rotation, so this is the matchup that opposing teams will want to put off as long as possible in the playoffs. Greinke (1.66 ERA) and Kershaw (301 strikeouts) form the best righty-lefty one-two punch in the game, and both of them can pitch on short rest in the playoffs. Gulp.
How strong is the link between rotation quality and team success in a 20-team Strat league? In the case of the MMDA: pretty strong.
Prior to the 2015 season, I ranked the top eight MMDA rotations in terms of the quality of each club's top four starters—the quartet most likely to appear in a playoff series. As it turned out, four of the top six teams on that ranking advanced to the league semifinals in 2015. The No. 2 Miami Manatees met the No. 3 Northwest Stars in one bracket, while in the other, the No. 4 Mohawk Valley Lions combated the No. 6 Spokane Hooded Crows.
The methodology is slightly changed this year. I used the SOM World starting pitcher rankings to remove my subjectivity and personal bias from the exercise. I also weighted the starter cards on a simple 4-3-2-1 scale to reward clubs with top-heavy rotations. After all, a club's top two starters likely will compile the most playoff innings.
Each club's top four starters—again, according to SOM World—are included here, along with their overall rank among starters. An asterisk (*) denotes that a pitcher may come back on short rest in the playoffs.
1. Spokane Hooded Crows (Pacific)
RHP Zack Greinke (2*), LHP Clayton Kershaw (3*), RHP Jesse Hahn (15), LHP Cole Hamels (16*)
Four of the top 20 starters in the 2016 set can be found in the Crows' rotation, so this is the matchup that opposing teams will want to put off as long as possible in the playoffs. Greinke (1.66 ERA) and Kershaw (301 strikeouts) form the best righty-lefty one-two punch in the game, and both of them can pitch on short rest in the playoffs. Gulp.
Sunday, February 7, 2016
2016 Draft Supplemental Rounds
Results for the supplemental rounds—this year the eighth through 15th
rounds—of the 2016 MMDA draft are as follows. For the first seven rounds—the "regulation" phase—visit the 2016 Draft Results.
EIGHTH ROUND
141 Scorpions Williams Perez, rhp, Braves
142 Breakers Tim Cooney, lhp, Cardinals
143 Dutchmen Preston Tucker, of, Astros
144 Nighthawks David Phelps, rhp, Marlins
145 Snappers Corey Knebel, rhp, Brewers
146 Bluejays Luis Avilan, lhp, Dodgers
147 Irish Pat Venditte, lhp, Athletics
148 Maulers Erik Goeddel, rhp, Mets
149 Gators Josh Osich, lhp, Giants
150 Roadrunners Colin Rea, rhp, Padres
151 Dodgers Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c, D-backs
152 Huskies Edwin Jackson, rhp, Braves
153 Crows Martin Maldonado, c, Brewers
154 Lions Jordy Mercer, ss, Pirates
NINTH ROUND
155 Scorpions Jerome Williams, rhp, Phillies
156 Dutchmen Daniel Hudson, rhp, D-backs
157 Nighthawks Adonis Garcia, 3b, Braves
158 Bluejays Chris Stewart, c, Pirates
159 Irish Dixon Machado, ss, Tigers
160 Maulers Ben Paulsen, 1b, Rockies
161 Gators Eduardo Nunez, 3b, Twins
162 Roadrunners Miguel Socolovich, rhp, Cardinals
163 Huskies John Danks, lhp, White Sox
164 Lions Jesus Sucre, c, Mariners
 |
| Dutchmen eighth-round pick Preston Tucker |
142 Breakers Tim Cooney, lhp, Cardinals
143 Dutchmen Preston Tucker, of, Astros
144 Nighthawks David Phelps, rhp, Marlins
145 Snappers Corey Knebel, rhp, Brewers
146 Bluejays Luis Avilan, lhp, Dodgers
147 Irish Pat Venditte, lhp, Athletics
148 Maulers Erik Goeddel, rhp, Mets
149 Gators Josh Osich, lhp, Giants
150 Roadrunners Colin Rea, rhp, Padres
151 Dodgers Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c, D-backs
152 Huskies Edwin Jackson, rhp, Braves
153 Crows Martin Maldonado, c, Brewers
154 Lions Jordy Mercer, ss, Pirates
NINTH ROUND
155 Scorpions Jerome Williams, rhp, Phillies
156 Dutchmen Daniel Hudson, rhp, D-backs
157 Nighthawks Adonis Garcia, 3b, Braves
158 Bluejays Chris Stewart, c, Pirates
159 Irish Dixon Machado, ss, Tigers
160 Maulers Ben Paulsen, 1b, Rockies
161 Gators Eduardo Nunez, 3b, Twins
162 Roadrunners Miguel Socolovich, rhp, Cardinals
163 Huskies John Danks, lhp, White Sox
164 Lions Jesus Sucre, c, Mariners
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Ballpark-Adjusted Team Statistics For 2015 Season
At precisely the same point in time that I discovered how to create park factors for MMDA teams last May, the means by which those PF estimates were calculated disappeared. As some of you know, our league's 2015 LZP file did not include line scores after April 30, and those line scores are essential to computing park factors.
With the help of a veteran Strat manager who is not in the MMDA, however, I have recovered 99 percent of the line scores from the 2015 season. This third party performed emergency surgery—technically, he rebuilt the league from game files—that yielded results for 1,605 of 1,620 possible games.
In fact, we recovered all 162 data points for 11 of 20 teams and all but a handful of data points for seven others. One team, the Miami Manatees, had 12 corrupted game files—the club's entire home schedule versus Northeast Division opponents in Block 6—and thus the largest error bars among teams in terms of its park factor.
Note: I can reconstruct the complete puzzle if interested parties can find the scores from Miami's Block 6 home games against Cape Cod, Fighting Irish, Northeast and West Side.
Note 2: We also have three random missing game files, which are:
• April 4: Spokane @ Jersey
So three months later than I intended, I have prepared park factors for the 2015 season. Please see this page to learn more about how the calculations are made. Teams sorted in descending order of hitter friendliness.
With the help of a veteran Strat manager who is not in the MMDA, however, I have recovered 99 percent of the line scores from the 2015 season. This third party performed emergency surgery—technically, he rebuilt the league from game files—that yielded results for 1,605 of 1,620 possible games.
In fact, we recovered all 162 data points for 11 of 20 teams and all but a handful of data points for seven others. One team, the Miami Manatees, had 12 corrupted game files—the club's entire home schedule versus Northeast Division opponents in Block 6—and thus the largest error bars among teams in terms of its park factor.
Note: I can reconstruct the complete puzzle if interested parties can find the scores from Miami's Block 6 home games against Cape Cod, Fighting Irish, Northeast and West Side.
Note 2: We also have three random missing game files, which are:
• April 4: Spokane @ Jersey
• April 17: California @ Jersey
• Sept. 4: Spokane @ Brooklyn
So three months later than I intended, I have prepared park factors for the 2015 season. Please see this page to learn more about how the calculations are made. Teams sorted in descending order of hitter friendliness.
| No | Team | Home R/G | Road R/G | Park Factor | Multiplier |
| 1 | Death Valley | 9.20 | 7.33 | 125 | 1.127 |
| 2 | Brooklyn | 10.16* | 8.32 | 122 | 1.111 |
| 3 | West Side | 9.81 | 8.28# | 119 | 1.093 |
| 4 | Lake County | 9.41 | 8.31 | 113 | 1.066 |
| 5 | Little Rock | 9.20 | 8.20 | 112 | 1.061 |
| 6 | Cape Cod | 9.23 | 8.69# | 106 | 1.031 |
| 7 | Northwest | 8.30 | 7.96 | 104 | 1.021 |
| 8 | Wilmington | 7.80 | 7.86 | 99 | 0.996 |
| 9 | Rochester | 7.53 | 7.65 | 98 | 0.992 |
| 10 | St. Louis | 7.95 | 8.11 | 98 | 0.990 |
| 11 | Goldenrod | 7.58 | 7.80 | 97 | 0.986 |
| Miami | 7.84** | 8.06 | 97 | 0.986 | |
| 13 | Elysian Fields | 7.68 | 8.10 | 95 | 0.974 |
| 14 | Jersey | 7.96^ | 8.48 | 94 | 0.969 |
| 15 | California | 8.09 | 8.79* | 92 | 0.960 |
| 16 | Northeast | 8.11 | 8.90# | 91 | 0.956 |
| Rosehill | 7.72 | 8.47 | 91 | 0.956 | |
| 18 | Fighting Irish | 8.40 | 10.03# | 84 | 0.919 |
| 19 | Spokane | 5.62 | 6.84^ | 82 | 0.911 |
| 20 | Mohawk Valley | 6.96 | 8.48 | 82 | 0.910 |
| * Sample includes 80 games (one missing) # Sample includes 78 games (three missing) ** Sample includes 69 games (12 missing) ^ Sample includes 79 games (two missing) | |||||
Friday, January 8, 2016
A Jamesian Approach To Evaluating MMDA Managers
In his 1995 book "Whatever Happened To The Hall Of Fame?," Bill James proposed a method for evaluating managers' worthiness for enshrinement in Cooperstown. He assigned weighted values to various accomplishments, such as World Series championships (eight points each), pennants not resulting in a championship (five), division titles (three), career wins (one point per 200) and 100-win seasons (one).
With the Hall of Fame announcing this week that Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza would comprise its class of 2016, I thought it would be fun to review our current membership with an HOF angle. Thus, I applied James' manager standards to the past decade of MMDA play.
In addition to the weighted values listed, James also awarded points for tenure, but since MMDA managers are not hired and fired by team owners, I did not consider this category relevant to our league context. Instead, I simply listed years in the MMDA, dating back to 2006.
Managers Clyde Elkins (three years) and Mike Renick (one) have undertaken complete rebuilds, so I did not include them in the following ranking.
With the Hall of Fame announcing this week that Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza would comprise its class of 2016, I thought it would be fun to review our current membership with an HOF angle. Thus, I applied James' manager standards to the past decade of MMDA play.
In addition to the weighted values listed, James also awarded points for tenure, but since MMDA managers are not hired and fired by team owners, I did not consider this category relevant to our league context. Instead, I simply listed years in the MMDA, dating back to 2006.
Managers Clyde Elkins (three years) and Mike Renick (one) have undertaken complete rebuilds, so I did not include them in the following ranking.
| No. | Manager | Years | WS | x8 | Penn | x5 | Div | x3 | Wins* | x1 | 100W | x1 | Total |
| 1 | John Tresca | 10 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 24 | 1008 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 55 |
| 2 | Matt Eddy | 10 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 931 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 45 |
| 3 | Ray Ross | 10 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 947 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 40 |
| 4 | Steven Tresca | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 836 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 5 | James Bailey | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 869 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | John Lamanna | 6 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 534 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Steve Frediani | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 770 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Jim Baker | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 782 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Mike Johnson | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 669 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Jim Derer | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 353 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Tim Ednoff | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 342 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Mike Siddon | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 746 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Eric Campell** | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 731 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 14 | Ryan McCabe | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 389 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dave Jones | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 347 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Jim Gruttadauria | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 315 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| George O'Connor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 296 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tom Edwards | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| * Teams awarded one point for every 200 wins ** Kevin Kasunich takes over franchise for 2016 | |||||||||||||
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Top 10 Uncarded Prospects Omitted From 2016 Draft
By Matt Eddy
The 2016 MMDA draft promises to echo through the ages with one of the deepest crops of first-round talent ever. Astros shortstop Carlos Correa, Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor will figure prominently at the top of the draft, while a second wave of talent—Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager, Mets righthander Noah Syndergaard, Twins third baseman Miguel Sano and Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber—would be in the conversation for No. 1 overall in most years.
The depth of this year's major league rookie crop is semmingly boundless, such that even a list of rookies who did not play enough to receive a Strat-O-Matic card is more robust than usual. Just think how much better this year's rookie class would look with some of the following players eligible for selection. But alas, no card means no go as far as the MMDA draft is concerned.
To repeat: The following players made their big league debuts in 2015 but are not eligible for the MMDA draft in February.
1. Max Kepler, rf/1b, Twins. The German-born Kepler scored the largest bonus ever by a European amateur when he signed with the Twins in 2009. Given that he was 16 years old at the time, his baseball development only seems like it's unfolded at a glacial pace.
Still just 22 in 2015, Kepler broke through in a big way at Double-A Chattanooga, winning the Southern League MVP award after leading the circuit in on-base percentage (.416) and slugging (.531). The Twins called him up in mid-September after the Lookouts won the SL title, and while Kepler went 1-for-7 in his cameo, he owns skills worth chasing, including strike-zone awareness, some power, some speed and a strong glove in the outfield.
The 2016 MMDA draft promises to echo through the ages with one of the deepest crops of first-round talent ever. Astros shortstop Carlos Correa, Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor will figure prominently at the top of the draft, while a second wave of talent—Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager, Mets righthander Noah Syndergaard, Twins third baseman Miguel Sano and Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber—would be in the conversation for No. 1 overall in most years.
The depth of this year's major league rookie crop is semmingly boundless, such that even a list of rookies who did not play enough to receive a Strat-O-Matic card is more robust than usual. Just think how much better this year's rookie class would look with some of the following players eligible for selection. But alas, no card means no go as far as the MMDA draft is concerned.
To repeat: The following players made their big league debuts in 2015 but are not eligible for the MMDA draft in February.
 |
| Max Kepler hit .322/.416/.531 with 54 XBH, 18 SB and 67 BB in 112 games at Double-A in 2015 |
Still just 22 in 2015, Kepler broke through in a big way at Double-A Chattanooga, winning the Southern League MVP award after leading the circuit in on-base percentage (.416) and slugging (.531). The Twins called him up in mid-September after the Lookouts won the SL title, and while Kepler went 1-for-7 in his cameo, he owns skills worth chasing, including strike-zone awareness, some power, some speed and a strong glove in the outfield.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Draft Order For 2016 (And Each Team's Recent Top Picks)
The default order for the 2016 draft, based on order of finish in 2015, is presented below. The top four selections of the first round are shuffled a bit based on the draft lottery, but the following order will be preserved from round two to the end of the draft.
Trades involving first-round draft picks are not reflected here—see the grid on the main page—but each club's top pick in 2013, 2014 and 2015 (along with overall selection number) is reflected here.
* Breakers for round one
% Razorbacks for round one
^ Scorpions for round one
Trades involving first-round draft picks are not reflected here—see the grid on the main page—but each club's top pick in 2013, 2014 and 2015 (along with overall selection number) is reflected here.
| No. | Team | Top Pick 2015 | Top Pick 2014 | Top Pick 2013 |
| 1 | Scorpions* | G.Polanco (3) | —— | —— |
| 2 | Breakers% | M.Betts (4) | X.Bogaerts (4) | J.Turner (18) |
| 3 | Dutchmen | J.Abreu (1) | W.Myers (3) | B.Harper (1) |
| 4 | Razorbacks^ | G.Springer (9) | J.Villar (56) | B.Moss (8) |
| 5 | Nighthawks | E.Escobar (41) | S.Gray (19) | W.Middlebrooks (10) |
| 6 | Drivers | J.Panik (34) | G.Cole (7) | Y.Cespedes (3) |
| 7 | Blackhawks | D.Santana (6) | J.Teheran (9) | M.Moore (6) |
| 8 | Bluejays | B.Holt (11) | M.Byrd (53) | R.Cook (24) |
| 9 | Irish | J.Baez (16) | M.Wacha (11) | E.Cabrera (29) |
| 10 | Maulers | J.deGrom (12) | A.Wood (39) | W.Chen (37) |
| 11 | Gators | A.Sanchez (17) | O.Arcia (17) | D.Phelps (40) |
| 12 | Roadrunners | J.Harrison (7) | Y.Puig (1) | C.Carter (35) |
| 13 | Dodgers | B.Boxberger (38) | A.Rendon (12) | J.Parker (7) |
| 14 | Pilots | C.Carrasco (13) | J.Profar (5) | M.Harvey (9) |
| 15 | Huskies | R.Castillo (19) | C.Archer (20) | J.Ruggiano (16) |
| 16 | Hornets | M.Tanaka (8) | N.Arenado (10) | R.Detwiler (13) |
| 17 | Crows | J.Pederson (2) | H.Ryu (14) | A.Eaton (15) |
| 18 | Manatees | C.Bethancourt (30) | J.Fernandez (2) | S.Marte (11) |
| 19 | Stars | J.Soler (5) | T.Walker (13) | H.Sanchez (95) |
| 20 | Lions | D.Betances (20) | N.Castellanos (18) | Y.Darvish (4) |
* Breakers for round one
% Razorbacks for round one
^ Scorpions for round one
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