2014 MMDA Draft Report Card

Preface: This concept is a complete rip-off of the Baseball America draft report cards series, which you can read here. The goal here is to identify the most talented players in individual facets of the game, such as best power hitter or best fastball. Objectivity is the goal, though there's plenty of gray area in prospect evaluation.

Only 2013 rookies/prospects were considered for this exercise. The numbers in parentheses refer to draft round and overall selection, so Gators RF Oswaldo Arcia (1.17) was the 17th overall pick in the first round. All references to Strat card units are in left/right format and taken from the SOM Ratings Disk, so that when Arcia is credited with having 3/7 BP it means that he has 3 ballpark home runs on the left side and 7 on the right.

OFFENSE

Best Hitter For Average >> Other players in the MMDA draft hit for a higher average in the minors, but the best long-term bets to hit .300 in the majors probably are Pilots LF/CF Christian Yelich (1.8) and Lions 3B/LF Nick Castellanos (1.18), a pair of 6-foot-4 high school hitters from the 2010 major league draft. Both will be 22 in 2014, and both have impressive minor league track records as they climbed from Low-A in 2011 to the majors three years later.

Yelich hit .313 over 1,190 PAs on his way up the full-season minor league ladder (excluding rehab assignments) with solid marks for contact (20 percent strikeouts) and power (.190 ISO). Castellanos hit .302 over 1,741 PAs with 20 percent strikeouts and a .143 ISO in some tough parks for hitters. Attesting to their ability to regularly hit line drives, Yelich hit .377 on balls in play, while Castellanos hit .365 despite being a no-better-than-average runner.

Special mention: Roadrunners SS/2B Brad Miller (2.22). The lefty-hitting infielder sports a career .334 average in the minors with consistently above-the-league-average rates for BABIP, strikeout rate and isolated power.

Best Power Hitter >> Look no further for the reason why Roadrunners RF Yasiel Puig (1.1) and Manatees RF Wil Myers (1.3) went at the top of the draft. Both have the plus power required to hold down a corner position on a contending major league team.

Puig in 2013 hit .318/.389/.552 with 27 homers, 33 doubles and 51 walks in 144 games for Double-A Chattanooga and the big league Dodgers. Myers produced a similar line for Triple-A Durham and the big league Rays: .290/.355/.496 with 27 homers, 36 doubles and 62 walks in 152 games. Both will be 23 in 2014. In Strat terms, Puig has 8/7 BP and 54/49 TB on his card, while Myers has 3/6 BP and 34/50 TB.

A dark horse in this category is Gators RF Oswaldo Arcia (1.17), who hit .267/.340/.474 with 24 homers, 23 doubles and 45 walks in 135 games for Triple-A Rochester and the big league Twins. He lacks the feel to hit that Puig and Myers possess, but he's right with them in terms of raw power.

Special mentions: The prospect with the most raw HR units versus lefties is Roadrunners LF Khris Davis (4.71) with 16 chances, while the prospect with the most raw HR units versus righties is Clippers C/1B Evan Gattis (2.26) with 7 chances.

Fastest Runner >> The Gators came away with the two fastest prospects in the draft: CF Billy Hamilton (2.37) and 2B/SS/CF Leury Garcia (9.161), both of whom rate at the top of the scale with 17 grades for speed. Goldenrod also drafted CF Aaron Hicks (5.97), who has a speed rating of 16.

DEFENSE

  

Best Defensive Catcher >> Lions C Yan Gomes (2.38) grades out well with a -3 arm, a low error rate (3e1) and a low passed ball rate (pb-1). He's also rated at first base (5e12) and has ample pro experience at third base (but has no rating there for this season). 

Special mention: Other rookie catchers with above-average (-1) arms: the Clippers' Evan Gattis (2.26), the Breakers' Travis d'Arnaud (2.33), the Clippers' Tim Federowicz (4.66), the Blackhawks' Josmil Pinto (4.69) and the Roadrunners' Stephen Vogt (7.140).

Best Defensive Infielder >> An easy call. Dodgers SS Didi Gregorius (2.32) received the rare 1 defensive rating as a rookie shortstop, coming in at 1e22. As an added bonus, he delivers 24 H and 37 OB units versus righties.

Special mention: Pilots SS/2B Jurickson Profar (1.5) grades at 2e20 at shortstop and 3e22 at second base. Gators SS Pedro Florimon (4.77) received a 2e24 at shortstop.

Best Defensive Outfielder >> Hard to do better than a 1e4 rating at all three outfield spots to go with a -2 arm. That sums up Clippers CF Brandon Barnes (3.46), who offers some utility versus lefties with 27 H and 36 OB units.

Special mention: A number of prospects received 2 range ratings in center field, including the Breakers' Jackie Bradley (2.24), the Gators' Billy Hamilton (2.37), the Nighthawks' Jake Marisnick (5.88), the Gators' Aaron Hicks (5.97) and the Clippers' Juan Lagares (6.106). Fewer still received a 2 rating across all three outfield spots: the Blackhawks' A.J. Pollock (2e3), the Manatees' Jordan Danks (2e4) and the Crows' Shane Robinson (2e12).

PITCHING

Best Fastball >> The draft's two hardest-throwing rookies are also two of its most diminutive pitchers. Each standing in at roughly 5-foot-11 and 180-ish pounds, Pilots RHP Yordano Ventura (2.36) and Nighthawks RHP Danny Salazar (2.28) brought serious heat as rookies, averaging 97.1 mph and 95.9 mph, respectively, on fastballs, according to Pitch f/x data.

Six other rookie righthanders averaged 93 mph or higher while also logging 100 big league innings. The super six: the Dutchmen's Jose Fernandez (1.2), the Clippers' Shelby Miller (1.6), the Drivers' Gerrit Cole (1.7), the Huskies' Chris Archer (1.20), the Dutchmen's Zack Wheeler (2.23) and the Hornets' Wily Peralta (3.50). In a thin class for southpaws, Hornets LHP James Paxton (7.130) averaged 94.3 mph in 24 innings for the Mariners.

Best Curveball >> Hornets LHP James Paxton (7.130) throws a curveball with power (82.3 mph average velocity) and shape (9.7 SO/9 in the minors). With 4.0 BB/9, he also throws it wide of the zone quite a bit. 

A trio of major league first-rounders are renowned for their big-breaking curves they can throw at 80 mph and up: Dutchmen RHP Jose Fernandez (1.2), Clippers RHP Shelby Miller (1.6) and Nighthawks RHP Sonny Gray (1.19). 

Best Slider >> Two pitchers stand out from the crowd in this category, and both are Huskies righthanders. Chris Archer (1.20) and Erik Johnson (2.40) generate swings and misses aplenty with average slider velocities of 85.4 mph and 87.8 mph, respectively. Big league righties have hit just .173/.230/.219 against Archer, and they're not off to a great start against Johnson, going 8-for-45 (.178).

Best Changeup >> Scouts have long admired the change-of-pace thrown by Blackhawks RHP Julio Teheran (1.9), Crows LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (1.14) and Dutchmen RHP Kevin Gausman (2.34), and it's easy to see why. All three pitchers average more than 10 mph of separation between their average fastball and changeup velocities.

Best Control >> They don't have the ceilings to match the pitching elite in a very deep draft for pitchers, but three hurlers are notable for having very few BB units on their cards. Gators LHP Brett Oberholtzer (6.117) checks in at 0/2 BB units, Blackhawks RHP Taylor Jordan (8.145) has 2/4 units and Lions RHP Brandon Cumpton (10.169) has 5/0 units. 

In case you're wondering: Yes, all three had low walk rates in the minors. Oberholtzer at 2.2 BB/9, Jordan at 2.1 and Cumpton at 2.7.

DRAFT DAY

Best Late-Round Pick >> Three players I would have been pleased to draft in the seventh round: Pilots 3B/2B Marcus Semien (7.125), Hornets LHP James Paxton (7.130) and Dodgers RHP Allen Webster (7.132). Maybe they won't amount to anything, but they're worthy final-round fliers.

The One Who Got Away >> With 180 players selected on draft day, not much card value or upside potential was left on the cutting-room floor. White Sox 3B Conor Gillaspie had 408 at-bats to help tide over a team with low expectations at either infield corner or DH. Cardinals SS Pete Kozma has a miserable track record for hitting, but at least he's a terrible hitter as a 2e12 at shortstop. Mariners OF Abraham Almonte had just 72 at-bats, but he switch-hits, he can handle any outfield post, he snagged a 15 speed rating and he put up 26 H / 39 OB / 41 TB units versus righties.

On the pitching side, Padres RHP Jason Marquis and Mets RHP Jeremy Hefner had 100-plus innings and were effective enough versus righties to fake it as No. 5 starters. Cardinals LHP Tyler Lyons has 53 innings, some utility versus lefties (15 H / 18 OB / 29 TB) and firm stuff.